Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[camperstron]

Looking at the charts I think that we won't see too much in the way of snow next week. But as Nick (was it Nick?!) said on the old thread in winters to come we'll look back on this one as a good one. The January cold snap exceeded my expectations - I'm looking forward now to Atlantic lows, gale force winds and thunder storms

(but a bit of snow before that would be very nice!!!!)

[Gord]

So things aren't looking do good today.

But I'm still interested in the potential because as someone has mentioned...the event is still there, its just shifted the wrong way for us. At the end of the day, we'll never 100% know what'll do until it happens...i don't think we'd have our interest in the weather if we could 100% predict it all the time!

Also, remember all the moaning about no snow in the foreseeable there was (myself included!) on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd January? In fact, i don't remember seeing any real optimism appear until the afternoon of the 4th and look what happened on the 5th!

You just never know in these situations. There is a whole weekend between now and anything happening...and despite the let down today..i reckon each and everyone of you will be checking throughout the weekend!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Looking at the charts I think that we won't see too much in the way of snow next week. But as Nick (was it Nick?!) said on the old thread in winters to come we'll look back on this one as a good one. The January cold snap exceeded my expectations - I'm looking forward now to Atlantic lows, gale force winds and thunder storms

(but a bit of snow before that would be very nice!!!!)

cetainly not looking forward to atlantic lows and gales, I want an April like in 07

[Gord]

April + 2007= as perfect as summerlike weather can get.

Yes please!

Hard to believe that April 2007 and April 2008 happened at the same point in the year.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

April + 2007= as perfect as summerlike weather can get.

Yes please!

Hard to believe that April 2007 and April 2008 happened at the same point in the year.

also 6th April 08 fantastic

[Nick L]

Looking at the charts I think that we won't see too much in the way of snow next week. But as Nick (was it Nick?!) said on the old thread in winters to come we'll look back on this one as a good one. The January cold snap exceeded my expectations - I'm looking forward now to Atlantic lows, gale force winds and thunder storms

(but a bit of snow before that would be very nice!!!!)

It was me indeed

To be honest, I think for proper cold we are starting to get to the point where we will need a miracle for it to happen, the sun is gaining strength by the day and any snowcover will melt fairly quickly in midday sun. Of course we can get good snow depths until April - 2008 saw my best snow in April, got about 5 inches overnight but all of it pretty much melted in the sun in just one day!

[A.J]

Just popped my head outside, and can report very light snow here, radar confirms its very light and patchy

[jukebox]

Morning we've got very light snow here to some largish flakes mixed in aswell

[Snowcheeks]

balmy 7 degs here in Derby - might get me bbq out in a bit

[Crimson_Sprite]

So far this winter has been the biggest heartbreak/let-down for me. It was utterly PAINFULL to watch places only 10 miles away get dumped with snow, and I have been chasing FI the whole winter in hopes of getting one good snowfall this winter. I have has lots of days with snow flurries (which was nice) but these were passing 10 minute shower and NO ACCUMULATION. Had a total of 2" of snow throughout the ENTIRE winter and not all at once, with only 1.75inch on the ground in early Jan. I know others have done even worse than me, and for you snow lovers out there, my heart goes out to you too. I have been chasing this cold FI weather for 2 or 3 weeks now and am the point of just thowing my toys out of the pram, and am now looking forward to a vain and desperate hope of getting thunderstorms now. Unfortunately Nottingham is just as RUBBISH with getting hit with storms as well!! ARRRGGGHHH hahahaha!! But I live in constant hope!!!!! Maybe this year will be a freak year and we will get slammed with lots of thunderstorms!

BRING ON THE STORMS I SAY- AND SOD THE SNOW!!!! (shakes fist wildly in the air at the sky)

[Strider]

balmy 7 degs here in Derby - might get me bbq out in a bit

Dunno what's happenning in Derby then because at 10am it was recorded as 1.6c in Watnall about 7-8 miles away

[Costa Del Fal]

Its SNOWING here. What a nice surprise.

[Gord]

Seen nothing here this morning...shows how patchy it is.

I'm still holding the faith for Monday/Tuesday even though it looks like slipping away from us. I wouldn't say I'm confident about it at all though. Will check the situation this evening and once more tomorrow evening and then leave it at that and see what happens.

Might take advantage of London Midland's £10 anywhere offer on the trains and have a day up in Liverpool on Monday if nothing exciting happens in the weather.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Within every ten square meters, it seems to be raining at 10rps (that's raindrops per second), and at 600rpm (that's raindrops per minute if multiplying the rps number by 60).

No spm yet (snowflakes per minute).

But looking at the radar, it looks like some places up North are getting over 2,000rpm with some spm mixed in.

[Costa Del Fal]

Some rain/sleety showers here this evening. NAE Models shows a risk of some light snow on Monday. Rain looks to follow.

[Strider]

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b02_1266011877

[Costa Del Fal]

Think we'll have to wait for the NAE 12z run tomorrow to get a clearer picture of what parts of the Midlands stand a chance of some snowfall during Tuesday. At the moment it's looking marginal, and I still think that from around the north Midlands and further north and east is where the snow risk lies. Some parts of the Midlands could see a wintry mix in the early part of Monday according to the NAE model.

Overall, a not a particuarly mild, but not particuarly cold start to next week ahead, with a slight risk of wintry precip at low levels across the Midlands- but snowfall mainly a feature further north and east.

My views exactly tbh. Snow does look like following on though looking at the NAE so some snow risks at times later on in the week maybe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

clear as a bell here, surprised, was expecting to wake up to rain, just hope the rain stays away, spring like morning, although dropped to -0.6C

looks like best chance for any wintryness is tuesday for showers, then less cold rest of the week with rain at least for W midlands

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 00z would give us a pasting next friday but of course its too far away! Expect downgrades like everything else.

Lovely morning. Mornings like this really give that Spring feeling.

[I remember '63]

I've only just noticed that the Midlands no longer has a METO weather warning.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Phew that was close - I was beginning to think that I might actually see more than one centimetre of snow for the first time this winter but it seems not.

[jukebox]

Quite difficult to pin down how Tuesday into Wednesday will play out. Latest GFS and NAE don't exactly clear things up. But, for the Midlands I think it's fair to say that the risk of snowfall is small but wintry precipitation cannot be ruled out as weather fronts make their way south east across the country during Tuesday. The front is then predicted to stall over south eastern parts of the country, and this where the warnings of snow accumulations, I think, have come from for parts of the east and south east.

I think there's a small chance of back-edge snowfall as the front progresses south east and within the post-frontal air mass - snow showers are likely across northern and western parts of the country and perhaps even northern parts of the west Midlands.

Overall, a marginal set-up to say the least. Regarding the warnings for the east and south east, I personally cannot see substantial accumulations for these regions. The various factors are just not there, regardless of the intensity of precip and how long it stays over these areas. I think wintry precip is just about likely anywhere as this weather system moves across the U.K, but lower levels I suspect it'll be of mainly rain and/sleet with any snowfal not amounting to much, if anything.

Hi weather 09 the latest NAE for Tuesday shows http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/14/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021612_1412.gifwhich as you quite rightly stated would lead to quite a wintry mix but I still think there is the potential for a snow event as all the factors seem to be in place........850,s are -5, -6 http://expert.weathe...021612_1412.gif with dew points around 0 http://expert.weathe...021612_1412.gif and we are also within the 528 dam aswell http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn483.png . My head tells me that it will be just a wintry mix as you stated and as the charts also show but I've just got a feeling that we could get a good few hours of heavy snow as its such an unusual and marginal setup and some of our best snowfalls in this region seem to come from the marginal scenarios. Either way I think that we should have much more of an idea by tomorrow evening.

[jukebox]

Dewpoints don't look favourable while the main frontal rainband pushes south across our region, but I still wouldn't rule out sleety conditions on the passage of the front, or even some back-edge snowfall as colder air mass follows on behind. Think in terms of snowfall, our best chance would be from showers during the course of Tuesday via embedded troughs. Even if there was a period of wet frontal snowfall, it wouldn't accumulate a low levels, so I think wintry showers sounds much better than a mix of rain, sleet and snow.

I'm sure I read somewhere recently though that snow can fall with dew points as high as +5 and if the precip is heavy enough then it can drag the colder upper air down and lower them quite quickly ???? Or maybe I'd drunk to much wine again and misread it lol. I'm still learning though mate so I'd appreciate it if you could correct me if I'm wrong? thanks

[Gord]

I think I've finally decided that it won't be too exciting this week..maybe a bit of sproadic interest here or there.

I just want to say, I think that the midlands thread is excellent at dealing with upcoming scenarios in a realistic and informative way. I learn far more here than in the model thread...so thank you!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It remains my view that the model thread is very skewed towards the SE/E Anglia, I'm not blaming guys like TEITS and Nick S, they are knowledgeable and prolific posters but the bias constantly comes across.

Anyway, we could certainly see snowfall this week but the sort of wet snow that occurs in this sort of set-up with temps between 2 and 3C and sodden ground, not my cup of tea.

yeah not going to be too good, wet snow better than nothing but even that is a big ask, so i hope it stays dry, generally turning less cold after wednesday, Atlantic to roll in next week sadly (week after half term 22nd)

Ian or anyone, do you think we will have to pay for this 2 month quiet atlantic? when it rolls in on 22nd, could turn exceptionally wet and zonal, more like a november setup, could lead to an autumnal spring