Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[TonyH]

I think I've finally decided that it won't be too exciting this week..maybe a bit of sproadic interest here or there.

I just want to say, I think that the midlands thread is excellent at dealing with upcoming scenarios in a realistic and informative way. I learn far more here than in the model thread...so thank you!

I agree, the Midlands thread is very grounded cf the Welsh (hyper) thread. Quite amusing in there though, some characters!

[jukebox]

To avoid marginal situations, you want the dewpoints to be at 0C or below. There can be situations when the dewpoint is a little over 0C, and it takes something to lower the dewpoint and increase the chance of the precip falling entirely as snow. Evaporative cooling is one process which can help to do this. But for this to be effective, the precipitation would need to be of a rather heavy intensity and for other factors to be nearly on the right side of marginal.

In my view, at best, I see rain/sleet being the main form of precip across lowers levels of the Midlands, perhaps interpersed with some snow - this being more of risk over high ground and places further east. Though as I said earlier, even if we had a fairly lengthy period of wet snow, it wouldn't amount to anything on the ground with small accumulations possible over high ground elsewhere.

Cheers buddy Have just been reading a post over on two that Bren posted in the synoptic thread this afternoon that describes the situation extremely well and is very informative and easy to understand. After reading what he wrote I'd agree with your view on wintry showers When I posted last Tuesday about the possibilities of snow for the start of next week it could have gone either way and I was hoping that the low would slide down the east and give us one last taste of snow for the winter lol But I suppose with it sliding out west then it will keep the colder air for longer though to be honest I'm longing for the first warm evenings now so I can get my fishing rods out and snaffle a few carp

[jukebox]

It remains my view that the model thread is very skewed towards the SE/E Anglia, I'm not blaming guys like TEITS and Nick S, they are knowledgeable and prolific posters but the bias constantly comes across.

Anyway, we could certainly see snowfall this week but the sort of wet snow that occurs in this sort of set-up with temps between 2 and 3C and sodden ground, not my cup of tea.

I would agree with you there Ian. I've been looking at the charts and visiting this site and TWO for about 5 years now and a lot of the time if there is no interesting weather in the s/e quarter then there is no interesting weather anywhere in the country lol. I decided just before the start of the year that I would take more time to understand the parameters of the models and try to contribute on the forums more this year and try and fight the corner for the Midlands lol. I know their are a good few people on this thread that could contribute in a balanced way in the model thread, yourself, w09, Nick2702 to name a few and it would be nice if some of you could post more in the model thread and bring the discussion away from the usual areas and include some other parts of the country.

[jukebox]

yeah not going to be too good, wet snow better than nothing but even that is a big ask, so i hope it stays dry, generally turning less cold after wednesday, Atlantic to roll in next week sadly (week after half term 22nd)

Ian or anyone, do you think we will have to pay for this 2 month quiet atlantic? when it rolls in on 22nd, could turn exceptionally wet and zonal, more like a november setup, could lead to an autumnal spring

February is normally a quiet month for the Atlantic but the one thing to note this winter is that normally the jet stream sits somewhere around the UK but at the moment its taken a holiday (down somewhere near the Sahara I think). This is one of the reasons why conditions have been cold this year and if things had fallen into place and we could have got some of the really cold air of the continent then I think that this year had the potential to be a really special one that would have been up there with some of the great winters of the past. For me it will be a winter that had so much potential to deliver the goods but just never quite got there ,I know winter isn't over by a way yet but any snow we get now wont last long. Wrt the jet stream Mark if it does'nt shift its ar*e and get back where it belongs then it wont just be an autumnal spring but possibly a autumnal summer aswell

[camperstron]

I'm not overly hopeful for this week - big downgrades all around really. But there's always the potential for a surprise or two (I'll still be saying that in July LOL!!!)

[Hailsowen]

...a winter that had so much potential to deliver the goods but just never quite got there

I had measured just shy of a foot of snow earlier in January! That's what I call 'goods'!

Anyway, I reckon I could have a brief shot at forecasting. Tommorrow morning looks like there could be showers flitering from the north-west, perhaps wintery in nature, especially along the eastern flank of them. Then a band will pass the Midlands tommorrow night, mostly consisting of rain, more wintery on higher ground. As the band passes, the precipitation will increasingly turn sleetier.

How's that?

[Costa Del Fal]

Occasional potential in the upcoming week but nothing major happening. Tuesday may see some snow showers. GFS also hinting at some snow towards the end of the week but as ever, let the downgrades changes begin! :lol:

Expect little or no accumulations this week. Anything more is a bonus imo.

[Hailsowen]

Hmm, just noticed that the "Magic 6 O'Clock GFS" ™ brings the front back north, pulling the band with it. That could prove at least a bit intresting.

Edit: Looked back at it, maybe not interesting at all.

[jukebox]

I had measured just shy of a foot of snow earlier in January! That's what I call 'goods'!

Anyway, I reckon I could have a brief shot at forecasting. Tommorrow morning looks like there could be showers flitering from the north-west, perhaps wintery in nature, especially along the eastern flank of them. Then a band will pass the Midlands tommorrow night, mostly consisting of rain, more wintery on higher ground. As the band passes, the precipitation will increasingly turn sleetier.

How's that?

That is a reasonable forecast mate and one I'd agree with though i'd think you would need quite a bit of elevation yo see anything wintry. Latest NAE

downgrades the snowfall potential for many and it looks like the warnings for the s/e quarter wont amount to anything going by that chart The GFS shows the potential again for snow on Thursday this week but again its a long way out and I think that the models will struggle to cope this week as at the moment some models project the low to sink before heading n/w again later in the week which is an unusual situation and not one that happens this time of year very often in fact it would be interesting to see if it has happened before and what happened in that situation.???????

[Hailsowen]

Doesn't the NAE show pink if it's indicating pure snow? I'll plead ignorence here but I've always thought the blue ment both rain and sleet. :lol:

[jukebox]

Doesn't the NAE show pink if it's indicating pure snow? I'll plead ignorence here but I've always thought the blue ment both rain and sleet.

If you look across the bottom of the chart there is a scale and colour code. Blue is rain and pink is snow not sure about sleet though I think it would probably be where the pinks meet the blues.

[Snowyowl9]

GFS does seem to be showing alot more ppn or snow,showing the low heading further south so the snowrisk increases.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/72_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/90_30.gif

[Costa Del Fal]

Wake up its a beautiful fowl morning!

Dull and drizzly here this morning. Charts still suggest some snow from Wednesday onwards, maybe Saturday a point of interest too but lets just concentrate over the next couple of days.

[TonyH]

Wake up its a beautiful fowl morning! :lol:

Cock-a-doodle-doo!

[camperstron]

Just been out for a walk and it's a horrible drizzly/almost slightly sleety morning. If only it were a bit colder, it would be all white out there!

[Costa Del Fal]

It isnt nice out there at all. Definately a day to be inside.

TEITS has mentioned how he Thinks, Wales, The Midlands and East Anglia are at greatest risk of snow events this week.

I dont think anything sunstantial id on the way but something to keep us entertained thats for sure!

[Costa Del Fal]

SE Meto advisories now gone!

Just for East Anglia and East Midlands now mostly.

[camperstron]

I've probably said this before, but for me the best part of 'the weather' is the waiting and speculating rather than the events themselves!! I got drawn into it 2 years ago (I think it was feb/march 2008!) when there was that atlantic low that was allegedly going to give the UK a massive storm - it didn't!

Since then I've waited for heat waves and heavy snow that haven't materialised!!

But it's that chance isn't it, that potential for something exciting that keeps us interested!

[Strider]

It's time for the East Midlands to see the snow.

[cheshire snow]

SE Meto advisories now gone!

Just for East Anglia and East Midlands now mostly.

Now that is something to at LoL

sorry just thought i would post something in this thread as the NW thread has sunk without trace about 1 post every 12 hours,which

is quite bizzare given the possibilities this week.

Wed night into Thurs morning looking good for our regions as the front begins to head back westwards,perhaps a cm or 3 for low ground

and upto 10cm over higher ground.

C.S

[Hailsowen]

SE Meto advisories now gone!

At least there's something to hold on to.

Also, an IMBY point for us, there may be falling snow in and around the Birmingham area at midday Wednesday. Although there's little-to-no chance of any accumulation, but it'll be a nice sweep of 'winteryness'.

[Costa Del Fal]

At least there's something to hold on to.

Also, an IMBY point for us, there may be falling snow in and around the Birmingham area at midday Wednesday. Although there's little-to-no chance of any accumulation, but it'll be a nice sweep of 'winteryness'.

Hehe yeah we should a couple of shots at some snow but little or no accumulation expected tbh. To many SE'erners jumped the gun thinking they were getting loads more.

[stevomatt]

v light snow here temp 1.1

[Strider]

Lots of ppn coming from Wales...

[snowmadchrisuk]

It's time for the East Midlands to see the snow.

Looking at the Current weather reports and all the Snow showers currently falling in the East , the ppn has pepped up and about to hit Leicester , I'm expecting Some Snow tonight .