Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Serendipity]

Since I posted a few minutes ago, we have had about 3 heavy showers of hail.

[kold weather]

This Mornings NAE is much better but the West Midlands would stay dry with the snow just over in the East Midlands.

Some uncertainty about the feature for E.Midlands tomorrow, it does look cold enough overnight into Wednesday for cold as the colder air undercuts however when that happens the precip tends to dry up very rapidly, which has to be a real worry I feel for those that want snow from this set-up.

[Serendipity]

Twas kind of like sleet, so melted hail I guess! dp 2.2 now - it reached 3.3 earlier so has taken a tumble.

[valiant]

Well I've been enjoying a heavy snow shower here for a good 20 minutes or so. Wet snow, big flakes.

[Strider]

Well I've been enjoying a heavy snow shower here for a good 20 minutes or so. Wet snow, big flakes.

Sweet, are you in Uttox?

[Costa Del Fal]

Even the Met Office Invent page shows something getting here tonight/tomorrow albeit light as expected.

[A.J]

decent hail shower...In fact, it looks stunning looking up into the dark base of the Cb as the sunlight is shining off the hail stones, so you can literally see thousands of hail stones falling from the base

[Serendipity]

We've sleet here now.

Also. dp dropped to 1.2 now.

[A.J]

We've sleet here now.

Also. dp dropped to 1.2 now.

Cant check my dew-points, as my weather station has gone up the creek....Its showing an air temp of 32.7C!!....Mind you, that would explain all the convection & instability!

[Costa Del Fal]

Not one shower all day. Never mind.

[The Wolf]

Hi guys I'm new to the forum. I have been viewing this site for ages but never posted before but thought I would buck the trend and start posting as I have always loved snow and lamp psot watching is great fun, my family think I'm mad Anyway I live in the Lower Penn area just outside Wolverhampton. I'm afraid I'm a Wolves fan for my sins

Anyway is it game on for tonight and tomorrow, regarding snow, or game over for my area?

Cheers guys.

[cyclonic happiness]

Had a huge shower cloud just to the east of us but missed meh!

Also had to laugh when I came back and saw this at the end of FI....

Goodbye winter......hello erm...???.....winter??!

[kar999]

Hi guys I'm new to the forum. I have been viewing this site for ages but never posted before but thought I would buck the trend and start posting as I have always loved snow and lamp psot watching is great fun, my family think I'm mad Anyway I live in the Lower Penn area just outside Wolverhampton. I'm afraid I'm a Wolves fan for my sins

Anyway is it game on for tonight and tomorrow, regarding snow, or game over for my area?

Cheers guys.

Welcome to the forum. I know your area very well.

I suspect we will miss out tomorrow with only higher ground most favoured.

Still time for some change though ... but dont hold your breath!

EDIT: Pop you location in your details (you dont have to be precise) then in future posts people will know where you're from.

[NorthantsSnow]

Hi guys. Tonight looks good for the south east of this region with Leicestershire and Northamptonshire possibly seeing some snow if this front behaves itself.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/england/realmedia/lookeast/norwich/weather?size=16x9&bgc=C0C0C0&nbram=1&bbram=1&nbwm=1&bbwm=1

I think it will depend on whether or not the precipitation is heavy as to whether it will snow. As for settling snow, that could well be exclusive to higher ground.

Still, it's something to watch. Worth noting though that the GFS isn't making much of this feature now compared to yesterday.

[Nick L]

Hi guys I'm new to the forum. I have been viewing this site for ages but never posted before but thought I would buck the trend and start posting as I have always loved snow and lamp psot watching is great fun, my family think I'm mad Anyway I live in the Lower Penn area just outside Wolverhampton. I'm afraid I'm a Wolves fan for my sins

Anyway is it game on for tonight and tomorrow, regarding snow, or game over for my area?

Cheers guys.

Welcome to the forum

It is looking hit and miss, most likely for the East Midlands but BBC are saying anybody in the Midlands shouldn't be surprised to see something wintry. However, it is most likely to be of wet snow so it shouldn't amount to anything significant to be honest.

[NorthantsSnow]

Actually, scrub that comment about the GFS. Bit of an upgrade in the 12z output, closer in line with previous outputs and the NAE. Still a lot of interest then for the south-east of this region.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100216/12/18/ukprec.png

[Nick L]

Actually, scrub that comment about the GFS. Bit of an upgrade in the 12z output, closer in line with previous outputs and the NAE. Still a lot of interest then for the south-east of this region.

http://charts.netwea...2/18/ukprec.png

NMM is showing pretty much nothing which is quite concerning.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yeah, was hoping to see a potent shower today as I knew that they would most likely be accompanied by some small-sized hail, so would have been great to see. You should be able to see a shower to your south going by the Radar. They are steadily moving ENE, so may stay south of you location. Showers have stayed north and south of the Birmingham area today, but still got to see some pretty good convection around mid-morning to early afternoon.

Ive had quite a large cloud to my West/SW all afternoon. How annoying. Lol.

GFS 12Z is a nice little upgrade for tomorrow. Put it this way, its nowcasting and radar watch day tomorrow.

[The Wolf]

Cheers for the welcome guys . I'm off out now but will be back on later tonight.

Lets all hope for some of the white stuff tonight and tomorrow

[NorthantsSnow]

NMM is showing pretty much nothing which is quite concerning.

Yeah, although since I've been following the NMM it's accuracy has been variable. It nailed the January 6 event quicker than any other output at which point I was singing its praises but since then it has been quite poor in my experience from tracking these events. That's not to say it isn't right this time, although I certainly don't expect temps to reach anywhere near 7 degrees celcius tomorrow like it is suggesting. Our good friend and fountain of knowledge TEITS has been saying he expects this front to weaken a lot more readily than some output has been suggesting, so that does give the NMM solution a bit more weight.

Pretty much a nowcasting situation now anyway. As of 1550, the front currently lies Bournemouth through Ipswich and the southern extent is much heavier. Patchier in the middle around London and closer to moderate in East Anglia.

[NorthantsSnow]

NAE would suggest a real risk of a short period of heavy snowfall across a good part of the east Midlands from around mid-afternoon into the evening tomorrow. Some uncertainty though in terms of the risk of accumulations- not sure how long any period of snow would last or how intense it would be. NMM should provide a little more detail.

The risk is there overnight for the east Mids. See this graphic for midnight to 6am.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/16/basis12/ukuk/rart/10021706_1612.gif

Ahh, forgive me. That was a GFS chart. The NAE has a general area of rain over a similar area overnight but no real wintry element on the NAE until after dawn when it produces this:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/16/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021712_1612.gif

[MKN]

The risk is there overnight for the east Mids. See this graphic for midnight to 6am.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/02/16/basis12/ukuk/rart/10021706_1612.gif

Ahh, forgive me. That was a GFS chart. The NAE has a general area of rain over a similar area overnight but no real wintry element on the NAE until after dawn when it produces this:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/16/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021712_1612.gif

Could be interesting with some very heavy snow which going by the bbc forecasts could well stay around all day similar to what the south have had to day only as snow 3-6cms doesnt sound like much but i think this is taking into account there will be a fair amount of melting going on tommorow so even if we only end up with 3-6cms, with the intensity of the snow to achieve that should be quite fun. Id also expect it to be fairly wet snow so itl probably stick to everything. Some of us are sure gonna have fun tommorrow i think. Right now i could be in the firing line but with it being such a narrow band until i see anything nothings guarenteed. Thats also the same for those that might not be forecast it to hit your region as things stand as a shift of say 50miles either way is easily possible.

[Hailsowen]

My forecast for non-settling snow around the Birmingham area still stands for midday tommorrow.

The Met'O'Model seems to agree with the DFS Sale GFS for a reasonable amount of precipitation around the whole midlands tommorrow around midday, so the game's afoot.

[stevomatt]

when will it start falling for my area... and if so how much do u think as i am working nights tonight.... thanks

[kold weather]

NMM is showing pretty much nothing which is quite concerning.

Rather uncertain call for tomorrow, past experience of such evolutions suggests the models tend to rather overdo precip and the front tends to weaken in such set-ups pretty rapidly. However the models are quite keen on it lasting long enough and the front is also quite strong still which would argue in its favour as well, so I'd say its quite possible for a brief snow spell...

Thursday looking rather interesting as well for you guys, whoever is on the northern side of the front on Thursday will have a good shot at some snowfall occuring, so plenty to watch out for!