Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[MKN]

This is my prediction from roughly 8am tommorrow. Areas inbetween the red lines id say are most favoured. Whats every1 elses predictions?

[snowmadchrisuk]

This is my prediction from roughly 8am tommorrow. Areas inbetween the red lines id say are most favoured. Whats every1 elses predictions?

LOL ... You have missed our area out !!!!! If your going to do a prediction then don't put Leicester that close and not include us haha ... I don't care if your wrong just move that line 5 miles further North lol.

[MKN]

LOL ... You have missed our area out !!!!! If your going to do a prediction then don't put Leicester that close and not include us haha ... I don't care if your wrong just move that line 5 miles further North lol.

lol id love to think we may just miss out this time, thursday looks interesting aswell though with some really heavy precip moving north east. I expect us to see some heavy snow falling at some point this week thats for sure. I think tomorrow were in the area where we could get lucky or just miss out. I dont think anyone in the world will really know how far north it will come until we can see it happen on the radar. Just gonna have to wake up and hope to see snow.

[snowmadchrisuk]

lol id love to think we may just miss out this time, thursday looks interesting aswell though with some really heavy precip moving north east. I expect us to see some heavy snow falling at some point this week thats for sure. I think tomorrow were in the area where we could get lucky or just miss out. I dont think anyone in the world will really know how far north it will come until we can see it happen on the radar. Just gonna have to wake up and hope to see snow.

I think if we start the day with Snow we will end it with Snow

[MKN]

Thats my thoughts to, il come back on here around midnight and try and guess whether the precip will reach us at 8-9am ish then. too early to have any idea what so ever at the min. once it gets to the 18z gfs being out we can compare where the precip was expected to be based on that at 6pm and compare it to where it is. Should give us an idea then whether the gfs is bang on or the precip is further one way or another. Either way i hope we get lucky for once because we deserve it.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Thats my thoughts to, il come back on here around midnight and try and guess whether the precip will reach us at 8-9am ish then. too early to have any idea what so ever at the min. once it gets to the 18z gfs being out we can compare where the precip was expected to be based on that at 6pm and compare it to where it is. Should give us an idea then whether the gfs is bang on or the precip is further one way or another. Either way i hope we get lucky for once because we deserve it.

Sounds like a plan , Time to forget the Model output for a couple of days , the short term 48 hours is what we need to concentrate on . Due points and Temps are dropping lovely in the Midlands at the moment , many areas already down to 2 degrees .

[snowmadchrisuk]

NMM in agreement with the NAE in predicting a brief period of moderate-heavy wet snowfall for parts of the east Midlands and perhaps also south-eastern regions of the west Midlands occuring around mid-morning into the afternoon. Still uncertainty over snowfall accumulations, though I wouldn't be surprised if 1-2cm falls came out of this given what both the NAE and NMM models are showing.

I have a feeling the precipitation will get here earlier than that .. Might be wrong though but it already seems to be on the move North .

[kold weather]

It will be very interesting to see just how strong the front remains, as I said earlier you tend to see weakening occur quite quickly usually once yo get cold air starting to undercut it typically but each set-up is different.

Also northern part of this reigon may well need to watch out for Thursday eveing, more then just a hint of another feature coming up from the WSW and cutting across the south of England and on its northern front it looks interesting.

[NorthantsSnow]

The NMM looks quite tasty for Leicester with just under 2mm of snow (2cm) progged to fall over a two hour period between 8am and 10am and about 5mm overall over the course of the morning. Dewpoints are only ever so slightly above 0 and air temps below 1C between 8 and 10.

This one is going to go down to the wire.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The NMM looks quite tasty for Leicester with just under 2mm of snow (2cm) progged to fall over a two hour period between 8am and 10am and about 5mm overall over the course of the morning. Dewpoints are only ever so slightly above 0 and air temps below 1C between 8 and 10.

This one is going to go down to the wire.

Hmm Well looks to be like Northampton could be on the Southern Extent of it through most of the day depending how it pivets . They have it still around Portsmouth into the afternoon so it is going to come down to how thin the line of precipitation is.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Stayed dry today missed showers, would have been rain, max 9.4°C, so mild especially in warm february sun

[snowmadchrisuk]

Stayed dry today missed showers, would have been rain, max 9.4°C, so mild especially in warm february sun

9.4 ??? Are you sure your weather station isn't directly in the Sun , that seems a bit high for Stafford and xc have been reporting much lower figures all day . Things are turning much colder now anyway , temps dropping everywhere.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9.4 ??? Are you sure your weather station isn't directly in the Sun , that seems a bit high for Stafford and xc have been reporting much lower figures all day . Things are turning much colder now anyway , temps dropping everywhere.

no its not in sun, sheltered N facing wall, around 1 metre high, yeah dropping now 1.6C, sun radiation I think affects it, I have to move it when sun gets strong, too much sun radiation

[Costa Del Fal]

Well the NMM would suggest the precip definately getting here. I always find the NMM either very accurate or not at all. I think it has done very well recently though.

[kold weather]

Stayed dry today missed showers, would have been rain, max 9.4°C, so mild especially in warm february sun

Yeah have to admit thats way too high, if that relaly was the case you'd probably have the highest temperature in Europe away from the Med!

Still going to be a rather interesting 48hrs in the Midlands possibly, I don't think tomorrow will give that much snow really but obviously the sooner it starts to lift up overnight the greater the risk of getting a little bit of snow on the ground. Thursday also could well be very interesting, IMO probably more so then tomorrow....

IF the 12z NAE did come off, then 5-7cms would be possible in a few places, I think thats too much but its something to watch out for.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the NMM would suggest the precip definately getting here. I always find the NMM either very accurate or not at all. I think it has done very well recently though.

I have just had a look an the NMM model on Extra and I don't like it because it takes it to far North to quickly , this is likely to be very slow moving and stall , the NMM has it in Manchester by lunch time .

[Costa Del Fal]

Yeah have to admit thats way too high, if that relaly was the case you'd probably have the highest temperature in Europe away from the Med!

Still going to be a rather interesting 48hrs in the Midlands possibly, I don't think tomorrow will give that much snow really but obviously the sooner it starts to lift up overnight the greater the risk of getting a little bit of snow on the ground. Thursday also could well be very interesting, IMO probably more so then tomorrow....

IF the 12z NAE did come off, then 5-7cms would be possible in a few places, I think thats too much but its something to watch out for.

Indeed Thursday could tuen very interesting particularly for those on the Northern and Western sides of the PPN. Could be the one to watch here.

[MKN]

What did shefali say tonight then?

[Supercell]

Absolutely chucked it down with a mix of hail/sleet, leaving a temporary slushy covering, in the last hour. Quite exciting driving through it.

[NorthantsSnow]

Absolutely chucked it down with a mix of hail/sleet, leaving a temporary slushy covering, in the last hour. Quite exciting driving through it.

That's certainly an encouraging report as far as tonight/tomorrow morning is concerned.

[Costa Del Fal]

What did shefali say tonight then?

Not much tbh. She did say the Meto Advisory had been extended to Worcestershire with 2-4cm lower ground and 3-6cm higher ground.

Shropshire and perhaps Staffordshire should escape the majority of any precipitation tomorrow with the rest of the region most likely seeing something.

[A.J]

Not much tbh. She did say the Meto Advisory had been extended to Worcestershire with 2-4cm lower ground and 3-6cm higher ground.

Shropshire and perhaps Staffordshire should escape the majority of any precipitation tomorrow with the rest of the region most likely seeing something.

shut up!..... :lol:

[Costa Del Fal]

shut up!..... :lol:

Model Output Discussion is here:

This event could either swing in favour of us or not at all. Slight changes seem to be making big differences right now.

[conor123]

Not much tbh. She did say the Meto Advisory had been extended to Worcestershire with 2-4cm lower ground and 3-6cm higher ground.

Shropshire and perhaps Staffordshire should escape the majority of any precipitation tomorrow with the rest of the region most likely seeing something.

Not a surprise really, i've lost count of the amount of times Shropshire's missed out this winter :lol:

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looking at XC , reports of the band turning to Snow in places already .. Very good news .