Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[NorthantsSnow]

Northants, it IS a big change, its shifted the whole northern edge of the front about 50-70 miles further NW which at 12hrs out is a rather massive shift...in other words it moves the snow risk from S.Midlands, to Wales and NW Midlands!

IF the 18z NAE was right, rain for anyone east of B'ham...

Yes my apologies on closer inspection it is a big downgrade for the East Midlands. And the Met Office have reacted very fast regardless of its accuracy...

[Guest]

Met Office do provide sufficient detail in their warning to have a good idea where there is likely to be snowfall- stating snowfall being more a risk for places with elevations higher than 100 metres. Considering Birmingham is around 100-200 metres ASL, then I think there's a real risk of small accumulations in this area.

For you guys in the West and N.W. midlands see Ian Fergusson's update in south west thread posted in last few mins.

[Costa Del Fal]

Met Office do provide sufficient detail in their warning to have a good idea where there is likely to be snowfall- stating snowfall being more a risk for places with elevations higher than 100 metres. Considering Birmingham is around 100-200 metres ASL, then I think there's a real risk of small accumulations in this area.

If this happens as now expected then because of the big change with little time before it happens, many are going to get caught out and lets hope were are not in for a disastrous road state.

[kold weather]

Well its wrong! Currently snowing in North Herts with a temp of 0.9c! Have read reports of snow down to north London so I dont see you guys will have a problem. Good luck!

To be fair though its overnight now and you guys up there always seem to get snow even in marginal set-ups, can't count the times you guys have been nailed whilst the rest have had rain/sleet

As others have said higher ground is always in with a real shout, esp in the overnight hours before temps start to rise up during the mid morning hours. However if you want a real good chance of getting snow even down to low levels you need to really be on the northern part of the front where temps will be marginally better.

[Costa Del Fal]

BBC 22:35 Forecast already showing the big change with Wales and the West Midlands the focus.

[Serendipity]

Hmm I'm supposed to be taking the children to see friends in Staffs tomorrow, do you think I might hit some snow? Had thought that if it was ok here it would ne fine there but guess that now even if no snow here, there could be snow there... Used to live up that way and have been caught out by snow far too often!

[Costa Del Fal]

It does seem the Snow will now be to the West of Birmingham. Suits me and were above 100m.

[Higher Ground]

Continuous snow cover from tomorrow until well into March would be nice haha

[NorthantsSnow]

Would love to see some heavy snowfall and some temporary accumulations, but the risk for this particular part of the Midlands is quite small, I feel. Think higher ground over eastern parts of Wales and north-west Midlands are best placed for these potential 5-6cm snowfalls. Must say, I'm amazed at the turn around so close to event in question- but only highlights the uncertainty surrounding this event.

It could still be wrong in theory. If it can change that much in 6 hrs then it could do so again at least to some extent by 00z.

But really you have to feel sorry for the casual weather observer trying to get a grip of the situation following the Met Office website over the past few days. First the snow risk was in the SE corner, then it moved up to the East Mids and East Anglia, and now it's ended up in East Wales, Shropshire and NW England.

Looks like the MetO supercomputer needs a few upgrades.

[cooling climate]

Well its wrong! Currently snowing in North Herts with a temp of 0.9c! Have read reports of snow down to north London so I dont see you guys will have a problem. Good luck!

Yes I am just a few miles south of you and its been a wintry mix for the last couple of hours

although it does seem to be turning more to snow now.

[damianslaw]

Seems the snow risk has transferred more in favour of the west and north west midlands in recent hours, I think this is right considering these areas do have some height and therefore conditions won't be as marginal as further east which is relatively low lying.. it makes me laugh when they snow for higher ground in the east midlands and east anglia there is no real high ground here..

Worcestershire marches could do get quite well as well as north Cotswolds, major urban areas such as Wolverhampton and Kidderminister could do very well, if the snow reaches towards the Welsh border could be a few temporary road closures, however, I think it will begin to diminish..

Still time for the snow risk to change.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well iv just got from footie and very supprised by the turnaround it really is typical ! Anyway dont be disheartened that the risk extends further north , i dont see it retreating from the ones further south , just expanding , remember its already snowing in parts of the south east which isnt forecast , iv just ran the ppn charts on gfs and in this time frame iv found them to be quite accurate . . . . and interestingly it gives this . . .

A period of heavy snow for the mids tommorrow afternoon and evening,

Heavy snow thurs afternoon and evening ,

and heavy snow sunday .

Im fairly confident that at some point during the next wk we all get to see a fair amount of snow .

[mackerel sky]

it makes me laugh when they snow for higher ground in the east midlands and east anglia there is no real high ground here..

The East Midlands region covers Derbyshire, the majority of the Peak District!

There are some modest elevations in Northamptonshire, Rutland (the NE continuation of the Cotswold Jurassic escarpment) and Leicestershire (the Precambrian ancient volcanics of Charnwood Forest) all above 200m.

I have to say, and it would be odd and very unlucky, for the band of precipitation which has been sat in roughly the same place all day to suddenly sprint through the area and get to the West Midlands and Wales overnight, which is when it is more likely to give accumulations on lower ground.

The MetOffice clearly don't bother updating their precipitation forecasts, because I note none of it still gets anywhere close to the West Midlands. Its all bit sad.

[damianslaw]

The East Midlands region covers Derbyshire, the majority of the Peak District!

There are some modest elevations in Northamptonshire, Rutland (the NE continuation of the Cotswold Jurassic escarpment) and Leicestershire (the Silurian ancient volcanics of Charnwood Forest) all above 200m.

I have to say, and it would be odd and very unlucky, for the band of precipitation which has been sat in roughly the same place all day to suddenly sprint through the area and get to the West Midlands and Wales overnight, which is when it is more likely to give accumulations on lower ground.

Granted yes Derbyshire is classed as east midlands, though I tend to think of east midlands as nottinghamshire, lincolnshire, leicestershire, rutland and northamptonshire..

I sometimes class derbyshire as north midlands with nottinghamshire and staffordshire, its all interpretation..

[NorthantsSnow]

Well iv just got from footie and very supprised by the turnaround it really is typical ! Anyway dont be disheartened that the risk extends further north , i dont see it retreating from the ones further south , just expanding , remember its already snowing in parts of the south east which isnt forecast , iv just ran the ppn charts on gfs and in this time frame iv found them to be quite accurate . . . . and interestingly it gives this . . .

A period of heavy snow for the mids tommorrow afternoon and evening,

Heavy snow thurs afternoon and evening ,

and heavy snow sunday .

Im fairly confident that at some point during the next wk we all get to see a fair amount of snow .

Yes the GFS wants to bury me in 15cm or so of snow on Thursday according to the 18z data. All well and good but the models can't even get snow nailed 12-24 hrs in advance so Thursday evening is way off limits.

[kold weather]

Front still decaying on the northern side with several regions where the precip is still fairly heavy which is probably where it is snowing at the moment. As the front weakens and spreads north-westwards snow reports will increase as it hits slightly colder air...

Certainly could be a very interesting 24hrs, I do see signs of the front behaving closer to the 18z models then what was shown on the 12z, in other words better chances for the west Midlands.

The best shot you guys have further east is the front gets up there faster, if it reaches you before 10am then I'd imagine odds are it wil lstill be of snow. As the day goes on the snowline will retreat right towards the northern part of the front, which according to the NAE and 18z models in general it should be over W/NW Midlands.

Still certain amount of uncertainty yet, so going to be a case of radar watching...if this fails then still every chance of another snow shot, be it on Thursday or later in the weekend/early week period.

[mackerel sky]

Granted yes Derbyshire is classed as east midlands, though I tend to think of east midlands as nottinghamshire, lincolnshire, leicestershire, rutland and northamptonshire..

I sometimes class derbyshire as north midlands with nottinghamshire and staffordshire, its all interpretation..

Yes I often think it odd that technically I live in the same East Midlands region - as parts of NW Derbyshire border Greater Manchester! Mind you the 'local' news comes from Norwich, which is about as close as Sheffield.

Typical tactics by the BBC forecasts I see... Jay W just after Newsnight fast forwards all the way to 3pm tomorrow where the snow risk is now into Eastern Wales. So what does what about the period between now and 3pm tomorrow? No forecast.

[marksp]

well, just got back from hammering Preston 5 v 3, and i definately would say i live in the East Midlands, or North Derbyshire, anyway looking good for some snow here over the next few days, most of the town is at 150 to 250 metres. Also when i left Derby it was dry as a bone at 10.30 but theres been a rogue snow shower here giving a light dusting on the grass and cars. But this morning the snow line on the hills around here was at about 200 metres and some cars had over 2 inches of snow, most of the fields were white over. I heard on the radio that Snake Pass was passable with care. So all in all looks good for the rest of Feb snow wise that is.

[A.J]

Not a bad NMM 18z run folks!

Yep, the front & associated precip does seem to be shunted 50-100 miles further NW, quite a development....Could be very interesting tomorrow for the WM, especially IMBY.....and has been already posted on here tonight, plenty of opportunity for significant snowfalls over the coming few days

[kold weather]

Not a bad NMM 18z run folks!

The NMM goes broadly with the same outlook as the NAE at 18z, with SW Midlands best placed for some good falls, west Midlands will do well as well if that came off.

As for further east, central parts would probably only get a dusting as the front decays down the middle of the front then a new pluse works up from south towards W.Midlands/E.Midlands.

Its worth remembering there is plenty of time for this to shift back again, in fact I suspect there will be a slight shift back eastwards but we shall see!

[echobase]

Yep, the front & associated precip does seem to be shunted 50-100 miles further NW, quite a development....Could be very interesting tomorrow for the WM, especially IMBY.....and has been already posted on here tonight, plenty of opportunity for significant snowfalls over the coming few days

Lol, the only day this week I have to go into the shop is tomorrow! Butchery ain`t for the faint hearted !!! I hope your backyard gets a pastin A.J.!!! Meat can`t wait !! I`ll be in at 11 regardless!

[The Wolf]

Looks like snow for my location tomorrow just outside Wolverhampton unless there is another change the forecast. Here's hoping anyway that all of the midlands gets a pasting!

[conor123]

Where is this NMM chart?? does it reach here on it??

[Arctic Hare]

Seems the snow risk has transferred more in favour of the west and north west midlands in recent hours, I think this is right considering these areas do have some height and therefore conditions won't be as marginal as further east which is relatively low lying.. it makes me laugh when they snow for higher ground in the east midlands and east anglia there is no real high ground here..

Worcestershire marches could do get quite well as well as north Cotswolds, major urban areas such as Wolverhampton and Kidderminister could do very well, if the snow reaches towards the Welsh border could be a few temporary road closures, however, I think it will begin to diminish..

Still time for the snow risk to change.

Wolverhampton I'd have thought has a pretty good chance, especially as most of Wolves is over 100m asl and quite a few areas are over 150m. Perhaps less so for Kidderminster - in my experience it's not a brilliant snow magnet, partly because it's considerably lower - most of the town is in the 40 to 80m range. My hunch - and that's all it is - is that here in Bewdley at 90m I may be a little too low and a little too far south to see more than sleet or maybe transient snow, but that the Shropshire hills may be in for another pasting.

[NorthantsSnow]

Yes the NMM is out and broadly in line with the NAE. Still a risk of some snow for the East Mids early on tomorrow morning between about 5am and 9am but a much smaller window for snow than previously anticipated and it's not likely to be all that heavy. The western side of the front is simply more active with heavier precipitation embedded in it which is why it is now favoured to see snow. In the east it weakens faster.

Come on Thursday, dump a load in my neck of the woods for a change. I'm sick of all these last minute changes east, north, south, west and either no snow or very little snow here.