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Q&a Phil Jones


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    A little more forthcoming and the wagons less tightly circled. Pretty good Q&A session overall.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511670.stm

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    Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey

    This is an interesting question and, especially, answer:

    H - If you agree that there were similar periods of warming since 1850 to the current period, and that the MWP is under debate, what factors convince you that recent warming has been largely man-made?

    The fact that we can't explain the warming from the 1950s by solar and volcanic forcing - see my answer to your question D.

    So at least Dr Jones is compelled by the fact that solar and volcanic forcings can't explain recent trends, which leaves the blame in mankind's lap. By extension, then, if it could be shown that solar effects are, or even could be, responsible for warming then the belief that man is to blame would have to be rescinded, regardless of any other argument.

    Hmmm...

    CB

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Yes it was good to be able to read his in depth answers to most questions.

    I have said all along that someone was attepting mischief and making e mails 'selectively' available for whatever purpose they were after. I suspect with trying to show the IPCC in a bad light.

    This is perhaps the most revealing Q and A

    U - Now, on to the fallout from "Climategate", as it has become known. You had a leading role in a part of the IPCC, Working Group I. Do you accept that credibility in the IPCC has been damaged - partly as a result of your actions? Does the IPCC need reform to gain public trust?

    Some have said that the credibility in the IPCC has been damaged, partly due to the misleading and selective release of particular e-mails. I wish people would spend as much time reading my scientific papers as they do reading my e-mails. The IPCC does need to reassure people about the quality of its assessments.

    Exactly-spend time reviewing his work not looking for misunderstood comments made privately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Yes it was good to be able to read his in depth answers to most questions.

    I have said all along that someone was attepting mischief and making e mails 'selectively' available for whatever purpose they were after. I suspect with trying to show the IPCC in a bad light.

    This is perhaps the most revealing Q and A

    U - Now, on to the fallout from "Climategate", as it has become known. You had a leading role in a part of the IPCC, Working Group I. Do you accept that credibility in the IPCC has been damaged - partly as a result of your actions? Does the IPCC need reform to gain public trust?

    Some have said that the credibility in the IPCC has been damaged, partly due to the misleading and selective release of particular e-mails. I wish people would spend as much time reading my scientific papers as they do reading my e-mails. The IPCC does need to reassure people about the quality of its assessments.

    Exactly-spend time reviewing his work not looking for misunderstood comments made privately.

    Actually quite lot of emails were hum drum so Mr Jones hasn't been quite honest there. Still circling the wagons a bit but he may become more open later on. For example claims about deleting data were in more than one email so he must have been frustrated a long time. Again indicates he wasn't confident the data would stand up. If it does why delete it?

    Anyway we're drifting into the enquiry again so best leaving it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

    Data for the hockey stick has been lost, well what a surprise. The most controversial piece of scientific evidence known to man, now as important data missing. At least he has the balls to admit this, and the fact that the MWP might well have been warmer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon

    Data for the hockey stick has been lost, well what a surprise. The most controversial piece of scientific evidence known to man, now as important data missing. At least he has the balls to admit this, and the fact that the MWP might well have been warmer.

    Where does he say that? OK, I'm a bit woozy this morning, my bad.., but I can't see that in the interview?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia. For it to be global in extent the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.

    Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today (based on an equivalent coverage over the NH and SH) then obviously the late-20th century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm that today, then current warmth would be unprecedented.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon

    Oh, SH data is limited, but it's the lost bit I wondered about. I don't think Dr Jones has lost data.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

    Oh, SH data is limited, but it's the lost bit I wondered about. I don't think Dr Jones has lost data.

    Aye he did Dev, straight from the horses mouth so to speak! To be fair I think he genuinely did lose it, it just doesn't look good with all that as happened1
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Academics aren't the best where computing is concerned however I'd be very surprised that Hockey stick data has gone as more than one scientist was involved so it's likely to be around somewhere.

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    Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

    Data for the hockey stick has been lost, well what a surprise. The most controversial piece of scientific evidence known to man, now as important data missing. At least he has the balls to admit this, and the fact that the MWP might well have been warmer.

    But does he still believe in the LIA? :D Which, according to D'Aleo and Watts, was warmer than today ...... :o

    It was a good interview, sadly misused by the media, especially the Daily Mail who published a totally false and misleading headline.

    btw I like the fact that Prof Jones is a typical British scientist and not an anally obsessive like some - hence his papers all over the place and not carefully filed in numerical, chronological and alphabetical order with 19 cross referenced indexes. I think if I met him I'd rather like him :)

    I bet he drinks real ale :drinks:

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

    But does he still believe in the LIA? :D Which, according to D'Aleo and Watts, was warmer than today ...... :o

    It was a good interview, sadly misused by the media, especially the Daily Mail who published a totally false and misleading headline.

    btw I like the fact that Prof Jones is a typical British scientist and not an anally obsessive like some - hence his papers all over the place and not carefully filed in numerical, chronological and alphabetical order with 19 cross referenced indexes. I think if I met him I'd rather like him :)

    I bet he drinks real ale :drinks:

    Maybe that's why is papers are mislaid! wink.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    I am still missing the bit where he said the data is lost ?

    All in All he seems to be exactly what some of us said all along. A typical scientist who does not believe that everything is settled or over, who does seem, hear and except "others pov" etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

    I bet he drinks real ale drinks.gif

    I bet he can't make it - that's what I've been up to all daydrunk.gif ! Maybe the papers have found their way down the back of the sofa,tucked away in the dog-eared pages of some long forgotten issue of N. Scientist or suchlike...

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon

    Aye he did Dev, straight from the horses mouth so to speak! To be fair I think he genuinely did lose it, it just doesn't look good with all that as happened1

    Where in the Q & A does he say data was lost?

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    Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey

    I'd rather like to know where he says that data were lost as well. Care to help me out, SC?

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Location: Surrey

    The lost emails data comments are in the Daily Mail (or Mail on Sunday?) report here: http://www.dailymail...-organised.html

    Specifically:

    "The academic at the centre of the 'Climategate' affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change, has admitted that he has trouble 'keeping track' of the information.Colleagues say that the reason Professor Phil Jones has refused Freedom of Information requests is that he may have actually lost the relevant papers.

    Professor Jones told the BBC yesterday there was truth in the observations of colleagues that he lacked organisational skills, that his office was swamped with piles of paper and that his record keeping is 'not as good as it should be'.

    The data is crucial to the famous 'hockey stick graph' used by climate change advocates to support the theory. "

    Edit: Ah, found out where this came from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8511701.stm

    Seperate report by the same journalist/science correspondent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Location: Surrey

    The Mail has definitely mis-interpreted the Q&A, I think. They say:

    "He also agreed that there had been two periods which experienced similar warming, from 1910 to 1940 and from 1975 to 1998, but said these could be explained by natural phenomena whereas more recent warming could not. "

    The question they seem to be referring to is this one:

    "D - Do you agree that natural influences could have contributed significantly to the global warming observed from 1975-1998, and, if so, please could you specify each natural influence and express its radiative forcing over the period in Watts per square metre."

    And the response they appear to have mis-construed is this:

    " Natural influences (from volcanoes and the Sun) over this period could have contributed to the change over this period. "

    But Prof. Jones goes on to say:

    "Combining ... these two natural influences, therefore, we might have expected some cooling over this period. "

    (Obviously you know where his full response is).

    As I had only read the news report, I needed to see the BBC interview to find out what was actually said. Like many other people would, I accepted at first that he had said the '75-'98 warming was natural. It is only on reading what he actually said (presumably what he actually said but see the footnote at the bottom of the BBC report), that I have realised this is incorrect. At last reporters are asking actual scientists actual questions about the actual science (even if it does then go on to be mis-reported further down the line). So some good is coming of all the recent scandal.

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