East & Central Pacific Invest Thread 2010

[Somerset Squall]

95E became Major Hurricane Darby and 91C dissipated.

After a brief lull in activity, invest 96E has just moved off the coast of Colombia and appears to be getting better organised, albeit slowly. A mass of convection is showing signs of weak rotation. Shear is low, and waters are very warm in the area, so at least some slow development appears likely.

[Cookie]

96E

40% of development in the next 48 hrs

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED

WEATHER OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[Cookie]

We now have 97E

[Cookie]

97E

less then 10%.

[Cookie]

92C - Code orange 40%

ACPN50 PHFO 312354

TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

200 PM HST SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A SHARP TROUGH CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

HILO...HAWAII HAS DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT

CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THESE

WINDS MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS TROUGH

CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS MEDIUM

CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON.

$$

BURKE

[Somerset Squall]

97E has dissipated.

92C is still inching it's way westwards, well south of Hawaii. There appears to be a surface circulation, but with very little convection attached due to high shear. CPHC and JTWC disagree in regards to 92C's future, with JTWC having issued a TCFA on the system, and CPHC only giving a 20% risk of TC development within the next 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

92C dissipated.

97E has redeveloped, however, convection is disorganised and shear is unfavourably high.

Invest 99E has formed just off the coast of Mexico. Deep and increasingly persistant convection is expanding and showing signs of rotation. This system looks a lot better than this morning, and seems to be getting it's act together quite quickly. Waters are very warm and shear is low, however, land interaction could hinder 99E, especially if it moves in any direction with a northerly component in it.

[Somerset Squall]

NHC have an orange circle over 99E now with 40% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs. Looks more and more impressive, could have Estelle just round the corner and finally a break in the Eastern Pacific's prolonged silence.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate.

99E

Edited August 4, 2010 by cookie

[Cookie]

99E

70%

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO

HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND

THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...

OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG

THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM.

[Somerset Squall]

99E became Tropical Storm Estelle.

Invest 91E has formed just off the coast of Mexico. Convection is showing signs of rotation around a developing LLC. Shear is low and waters are warm. As long as this system doesn't move north inland, it has a good shot at becoming a tropical depression tomorrow IMO. NHC give a high chance, 60%, of TC formation in the next 48hrs. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system.

[Somerset Squall]

91E has moved inland, and consquently, convection is diminishing around an increasingly ill defined LLC. There is a chance of development if the system moves back over water on the predicted northwesterly heading, but this is not certain to happen.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94E formed a couple of days ago 230 miles southeast of Socorro and is now becoming better organised. Convection is increasing near a developing LLC. Shear has been high over this system through the last 48hrs, but it now easing allowing this observed development. A tropical depression could form at any time over the next day or two as a result.

[Cookie]

We have 96C

this is the first time since 1979 their hasn't be a named storm in the Central Pacific by this time

[Somerset Squall]

We have 96C

this is the first time since 1979 their hasn't be a named storm in the Central Pacific by this time

That's pretty interesting Cookie, one thing I have noted also is the easterly bias for formation in the basin so far with not many storms travelling very far west due to cooler waters here.

94E became TD 10E.

95C has consisted of a naked swirl of clouds over the last day or so, but for the first time, convection appears to be building. Whether this persists or is just due to time of day remains to be seen, but this system has already got a well defined LLC.

[Somerset Squall]

95C dissipated.

Invest 96E has formed near the southern tip of Baja California. The system is becoming better organised with convection increasing near a developing LLC. 96E could become a tropical depression at any time over the next day before it quickly moves northwestwards into cooler water. This system does not have time to become anything more than a possible weak tropical storm IMO.

[Cookie]

96E became Georgette

and we have 97C

[Cookie]

97C

Remains at 60% and has a TCFA issued with it.

[Somerset Squall]

97C looks like it could go on to become the first TC of the Central Pacific season 2010- this is the only invest here so far that has looked in anyway decent. The LLC is getting better defined, and although convection isn't amazing at the moment, the warm water, low shear and improving outflow "should" solve this and result in tropical depression formation.

[Somerset Squall]

There's not much left of 97C. Shear increased more than expected, and only a few isolated cells of convection remain near a very ill defined centre. Development is unlikely.

Invest 97E has formed in the East Pacific. The system is gradually becoming better organised, though moderate shear is slowing development at present. The LLC is tightening near a large, deep area of convection. Shear is expected to ease a little, and this could allow the convection to fully wrap around the LLC (it's currently mostly bulked to the west). JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert and NHC give this system a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs.

[Cookie]

97E

Now at 20% chance of development in the next 24 hrs

[Somerset Squall]

A highly unusual, off season invest, 98C, formed in the Central Pacific today. By the CPHC, it's been regarded as subtropical. However, convection is increasing near the centre and dvorak numbers suggest the system is now a 45kt tropical storm! It has just crossed the date line into the West Pacific. It'll be interesting to see what the JTWC say about it, if anything at all. This system is unusually far north, especially for December, and it's formation is highly rare!

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have mentioned 98C as subtropical. Based on satellite appearance alone, I disagree. The system has well defined banding and has developed an eye. JMA have not issued any advisories/statements on the system.

[Cookie]

ACPN50 PHFO 190603

TWOCP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

800 AM HST SAT DEC 18 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A GALE LOW LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE ABOUT

500 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL...WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD

THE SOUTH AT LESS 10 MPH...CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS

MAINTAINING A WELL DEFINED AND PERSISTENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR

ITS CENTER. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK

TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...

WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE

CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY LATE SUNDAY. THERE IS A HIGH

CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS GALE

LOW...SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN HONOLULU...HAWAII

UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFNP...OR WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

HOUSTON

[Somerset Squall]

I'm no expert, but IMO, the JTWC have done an awful job here. Yes, 98C is moving back towards the Central Pacific but tis system is clearly NOT subtropical. JMA's complete lack of even recognising the system is very poor. CPHC are probably just waiting for 98C to move back into their area of responsibility before giving this well deserved storm a name.

With the well defined eye today, this system is clearly a typhoon/hurricane. Dvorak numbers support this. A well defined eye was clearly visable earlier today. We await confirmation from CPHC, JTWC are clearly not on the ball enough to forecast this system. Subtropical my ...!

This run shows my point exactly:

Edited December 19, 2010 by Cridders88