Cold Spell Discussion

[John London]

It is presently a pleasant 5c here. Lovely sunshine with a gentle westerly breeze. Still waiting for some weather that fits the Cold Spell Discussion.

[Weathizard]

It is presently a pleasant 5c here. Lovely sunshine with a gentle westerly breeze. Still waiting for some weather that fits the Cold Spell Discussion.

Yep, 7 degrees here with clear sunny skies, quite pleasant actually.

As for next week, the north is in a great position but for us southerners It will probably be persistent boring rain.

[phil nw.]

Im beginning to wish I kept records of this winter so far. Adding up all the cold spells so far this winter I have probably seen over 20 days of snow lying and similiar amount of days with snow falling. I witnessed a few ice days between 18th Dec- 24th Dec and I cannot remember any days reaching 10C. The snowfall amounts reached 7cm last night with the greatest snowfall being 12cm on the 18th Dec.

Amazing to think that nearly a third of this winter has seen snow lying on the ground. Incredible when you think their has been winters when I haven't seen a single snowflake!

The snowfall events haven't been anywhere near as severe as those I remember back in the late 70's/80's. However overall its been one of the best winters since 95/96. At least we can put this christmas pudding to bed at last.

Yes Dave it`s been refreshing to get a proper Winter after so many years of disappointments since 95/96.

The stand out thing has been the sypnotics--so fascinating this season with the Jet holidaying in the Med.and so much cold air over Europe and UK for much of the time.

It`s been so different without PM airmasses infiltrating the UK-- giving us a real Winter feel to the air.

Edited February 19, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[Optimus Prime]

It really does amaze me how quickly peoples perceptions of cold change when it's been cold for a few months;

"It is presently a pleasant 5c here. Lovely sunshine with a gentle westerly breeze. Still waiting for some weather that fits the Cold Spell Discussion."

Wow and that's coming from London. I wonder how many times 5c was exceeded in the winters 2006-2008?

[Wilks]

It really does amaze me how quickly peoples perceptions of cold change when it's been cold for a few months;

"It is presently a pleasant 5c here. Lovely sunshine with a gentle westerly breeze. Still waiting for some weather that fits the Cold Spell Discussion."

Wow and that's coming from London. I wonder how many times 5c was exceeded in the winters 2006-2008?

doesn't really make much difference, you aclimitize to whatever has been before and I agree today has been lovely, sunny and felt like a nice spring day. Lots of rain to not look forward too next week but then a gradual warm up as we enter spring and not long really until the clocks go forward - can't wait for that day!

[Optimus Prime]

Definetely looking forward to Summer this year.

A surprisingly low temperature was recorded last night in Scotland. -16.4c at Braemar.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Definetely looking forward to Summer this year.

A surprisingly low temperature was recorded last night in Scotland. -16.4c at Braemar.

Indeed. Some very harsh frosts here with -5C recorded even here on Wednesday morning and -3C this morning. Maxima were suppressed to around 2-3C also while we have about a cm of snow from about an hour of snow showers, though Aberdeen saw 4 inches in two hours at midday today.

LS

Edited February 19, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Cheese Rice]

It is true though that some are forgetting what is classed as cold or not, the average temperature is around 7-8.c in the UK at this time of year, a little cooler in the north. So 5.c or below is classed as relatively cold compared to the average, mistaking these temperatures for spring like will bring a shock when temps do actually reach double figures.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes Dave it`s been refreshing to get a proper Winter after so many years of disappointments since 95/96.

The stand out thing has been the sypnotics--so fascinating this season with the Jet holidaying in the Med.and so much cold air over Europe and UK for much of the time.

It`s been so different without PM airmasses infiltrating the UK-- giving us a real Winter feel to the air.

I think of greater significance is the lack of tropical maritime airmasses- those are the ones that bring most of the mildest winter weather, as well as plenty of cloud and drizzly rain especially to the west.

Indeed, since it's not always clear whether instances of "returning arctic maritime" (which is what we have now) classify as polar or arctic maritime, it could be argued that we have a strong PM influence at the moment, and the same could be argued for much of the last third of December. Regarding polar maritime air itself, it's only the "returning polar maritime" airmasses that return a long distance over the Atlantic and come up from the S or SW that tend to be especially mild.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Do you think that climate change could be resulting in a more "continental" climate for the UK with a quieter Atlantic, an increased prevalence of blocked weather patterns and therefore trending towards warmer (and more humid) summers but colder winters? I was chatting to a regular of this forum on Facebook and his opinion was a cold winter was more likely to result in a poor summer (i.e. cool and unsettled) as he thinks the Atlantic will come back with a vengeance after a long absence) but it is true that cold winters are not always followed by poor summers (1947 winter was followed by a good summer and 1995-96 was preceded by a good summer) so I do think that the blocking could continue though to the summer months giving a more continental feel to things this year and therefore quite a warm and humid summer (but not necessarily dry though with quite a bit of convective/thunderstorm action) what do you think?

Luke

[La Bise]

I thought it was precisely the opposite that would end up being the case, which has been our lot for the last decade up until this winter and up to a point last winter. Anyhow, dangerous territory...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Taking a long-term average there's a correlation between cold winters and cool summers, but only because cold winters are more likely when it's cool all year round. Otherwise there isn't any significant relationship. Cool cloudy summers followed on from the winters of 1963, 1979, 1985 and 1986 and to a lesser extent in 1982. On the other hand, as well as the famous example in 1947, the "Operation Snowdrop" winter of 1955 was followed by the hottest July/August combination since 1911, with many places having record sunshine totals during July. 1955 was also Scotland's sunniest year since records began- and somewhat interestingly it was also Scotland that was most heavily hit during the snowy outbreaks of the winter of 1954/55.

Summer 1996 was of course eclipsed by that of 1995, but nonetheless, most places were drier and sunnier than average (over England and Wales only 2006 has subsequently widely produced higher summer-quarter sunshine totals), and southern and eastern areas were quite warm.

Regarding climate change, there are suspicions that the recent trend for +ve NAO was down to more than global warming and that we may indeed be seeing a cyclical phase shift to more northern blocking and colder snowier winters for NW Europe in spite of the upward trend in global temperatures. Only time will tell on that though.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Taking a long-term average there's a correlation between cold winters and cool summers, but only because cold winters are more likely when it's cool all year round. Otherwise there isn't any significant relationship. Cool cloudy summers followed on from the winters of 1963, 1979, 1985 and 1986 and to a lesser extent in 1982. On the other hand, as well as the famous example in 1947, the "Operation Snowdrop" winter of 1955 was followed by the hottest July/August combination since 1911, with many places having record sunshine totals during July. 1955 was also Scotland's sunniest year since records began- and somewhat interestingly it was also Scotland that was most heavily hit during the snowy outbreaks of the winter of 1954/55.

Summer 1996 was of course eclipsed by that of 1995, but nonetheless, most places were drier and sunnier than average (over England and Wales only 2006 has subsequently widely produced higher summer-quarter sunshine totals), and southern and eastern areas were quite warm.

Regarding climate change, there are suspicions that the recent trend for +ve NAO was down to more than global warming and that we may indeed be seeing a cyclical phase shift to more northern blocking and colder snowier winters for NW Europe in spite of the upward trend in global temperatures. Only time will tell on that though.

I wish I'd been alive in '55 - sounds absolutely amazing! Is there not a good amount of evidence of roughly 30 year changes in the latitude of the jetstream, whereby it moved northwards from 1910 to 1940 (in general and roughly) and moved further south in the preceding 30 years?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think any regular pattern, 30 years or otherwise, has been identified, but there's certainly a suspicion out there that we may, synoptics wise, be at the end of a period similar to that of 1910-1940.

[La Bise]

I can't help thinking that with the setup we have synoptics wise(and possibly also the low solar output), we ought to get colder conditions but the warming trend is suppressing this up to a point. Having seen many times chart-diggers post older charts that looke almost carbon copies of some of the stuff we have seen and resulted in more severe events lead me to that conclusion

Edited February 19, 2010 by La Bise

[lukemc]

Hi,

I am from Liverpool in the Northwest of England of course I know some say that we don't see as much snow as some other parts of the country but we have done quite well this winter with some good snow events including the event in January (5th I think) that effectively paralyzed Liverpool with busses stopping and assorts looking at the latest output do you think I will see at least one more good snow event before winter is out I think it would make the icing on the cake to what has been a very good winter snow wise for me! If that run verified, how much could I expect I know the Midlands would see the biggest falls but what could I expect could it rival February 1996 (which gave us a lot of snow in Liverpool - just goes so show that we can get big snowstorms just not as often as some other places!)

Luke

[John London]

It really does amaze me how quickly peoples perceptions of cold change when it's been cold for a few months;

"It is presently a pleasant 5c here. Lovely sunshine with a gentle westerly breeze. Still waiting for some weather that fits the Cold Spell Discussion."

Wow and that's coming from London. I wonder how many times 5c was exceeded in the winters 2006-2008?

Another day another dollar. You were quoting me with the "It is presently a pleasant 5c here. Lovely sunshine with a gentle westerly breeze. Still waiting for some weather that fits the Cold Spell Discussion."

Just thought I should point out I'm not from London.

While I'm here, a beautiful clear sunny morning here in Gunton, the North Sea is like a mill pond.

[Tom D]

The week ahead is set to be another fascinating week with snow potential EVERYWHERE at some point. When will it end?! I feel drained having followed the models since early December and regardless what happens this week this winter will go down as the best in my life time (I'm 19).

When it is finally over, whenever that may be, I'm sure we'll be talking about Winter 09/10 for many years to come.

The latest GFS still shows several snow events for the south, the midlands and then Scotland at various times. It may be that it snows across the Midlands, then moves southwards. Then another depression moves in with the main snow risk from northern England northwards, but as that moves through the snow risk again moves south as the week goes on. A really fascinating wintry week ahead.

[John London]

When it is finally over, whenever that may be, I'm sure we'll be talking about Winter 09/10 for many years to come.

You might, but I don't think many people will where I live.

[Hammer]

The week ahead is set to be another fascinating week with snow potential EVERYWHERE at some point. When will it end?! I feel drained having followed the models since early December and regardless what happens this week this winter will go down as the best in my life time (I'm 19).

When it is finally over, whenever that may be, I'm sure we'll be talking about Winter 09/10 for many years to come.

The latest GFS still shows several snow events for the south, the midlands and then Scotland at various times. It may be that it snows across the Midlands, then moves southwards. Then another depression moves in with the main snow risk from northern England northwards, but as that moves through the snow risk again moves south as the week goes on. A really fascinating wintry week ahead.

Very good post Tommy. Whilst snow depths have not been as deep as in some winters past, the sheer persistence of the cold weather albeit with slightly milder interludes has been fantastic, a proper winter, as some others have said, looking forward to a season change now and then on to what summer brings.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the lack of comments describes the 6z GFS . Cold/Cool in the North , Mild air and rain for most of England with even the +546 damline on the SW at times. CC may soon after give up on his North Easterly as I am not seing any signs of height's building to the NE well enough to effect the UK. The MJO failed to follow the track we thought it would and is now heading for phase 4 which isn't favourable for height rises.

[Terminal Moraine]

Having had a look at the 06z run, the precipitation forecasts, the 800mb temp's, the freezing level etc etc, I'd say this week has the potential to be the snowiest of the winter in my particular neck of the woods.

A good chance of a few cms tomorrow, a better than evens chance of a good fall on Wednesday and, if things go according to plan, the prospect of a major fall on Friday into early Saturday.

If only potential could be gauranteed!

[Mark Bayley]

Having had a look at the 06z run, the precipitation forecasts, the 800mb temp's, the freezing level etc etc, I'd say this week has the potential to be the snowiest of the winter in my particular neck of the woods.

A good chance of a few cms tomorrow, a better than evens chance of a good fall on Wednesday and, if things go according to plan, the prospect of a major fall on Friday into early Saturday.

If only potential could be gauranteed!

Certainly looks good for our region. I think i may be to far East though (at times) My 100m asl should help. Buxton area looking good i would have thought

[Matt12]

I've just noticed that Met O have removed the warnings over the threat of snow for Monday for the whole of the UK. I wonder if this is because of the change that has occurred in the outlook in the last day or so.

I still think the Northernmost parts of England and the whole of Scotland may get quite a few snow events in the next week. I can't really understand at the moment why people in the South-East/southern England are getting excited though - our only hope is that things change!

Matt.

[Nick L]

I've just noticed that Met O have removed the warnings over the threat of snow for Monday for the whole of the UK. I wonder if this is because of the change that has occurred in the outlook in the last day or so.

I still think the Northernmost parts of England and the whole of Scotland may get quite a few snow events in the next week. I can't really understand at the moment why people in the South-East/southern England are getting excited though - our only hope is that things change!

Matt.

They have moved it to Sunday.