London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

A few decent showers in CS, the first band has hit Badboy, the northerly batch looks like hitting western parts of the SE, however it all depends on the exact strength of the showers as to what falls out of the sky.

[slb97]

snowing here on the southcoast i feel this will be the last snowfall we will see here for awhile.

We've got hail here - but I think you're a bit further inland than me; you're right, let's enjoy the wintriness while we can!

[Coast]

Tomorrow is going to be one of those wait and see type set-ups, they typically end up to the south of us but who knows

Well you can't get much more South than me in this region, so here's hoping

[Wilks]

lovely spring like day here - feels quite pleasant outside as well after taking the dog for a walk - clear skies.. lovely.

[slb97]

Well you can't get much more South than me in this region, so here's hoping

And me!! Lovely skies here now after our hailstorm - hope it's on its way to you now!

[ZONE 51]

this is what everyones talking about , the midweek snowstorm or rain storm

Edited February 19, 2010 by nimbilus

[Weathizard]

If we aren't going to get snow next week then I want it to be 10C and clear sunny skies...I ruddy hate rain

[Weathizard]

How is the latest run for the S/SE? There's no agreement anywhere..

[slb97]

How is the latest run for the S/SE? There's no agreement anywhere..

Maybe the models are struggling because the south coast (from Land's End to Margate) will get 1.5 foot of snow complete with blizzards, thunderstorms and the odd water spout by Wednesday night!

[kold weather]

12z gives us a lot of rain followed by a snow event for more northern parts of this region on Tuesday night.

Quite honestly I wouldn't look past 36hrs for snowfall yet, the set-up is VERY hard to pinpoint down and I think some mets are even going to struggle with the evolution, because it involves several LP systems in a very complex broad circulation with multiple strengthening/weakening centers...

Toughie!

[ZONE 51]

sleet/snow/hail shrs just to the south of me

[yamkin]

hi yamkin

Another Croydon member

it looks like the forcasts are going by the fax charts

http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html

these show dry conditions on saturday and sunday

however look at monday as this would be a great

chart for snow over the south east.

these charts will probably look different again tomorrow

but hopefully monday will stay the same

john

Hi John, Welcome to the mad house :lol: :lol:

GFS 12Z is now not showing snow on Saturday/Sunday/Monday.

Here are the latest snow charts within a reliable time frame. Bet there will be even more changes to come

[ZONE 51]

i wouldnt get to excited past monday would you?

it keeps doing this then it be gone by next wk , if this was tomo i could build that snowman or snow women

Edited February 19, 2010 by nimbilus

[steve1971]

as i say dont get to taken by these charts all be downgrade to just rain by time the events happen just cant see it this late in winter this far south.hope im wrong

[jodaw84]

Is it not simply just a little bit too warm here in the South East for any snow events? (now and in the forseeable future)

Im in Eythorne, Dover

[tcc]

Well it was nice and pleasant in the sun until about an hour ago when we had a wet snow shower! :lol: A lovely surprise and pretty heavy too with big flakes!

[snowray]

as i say dont get to taken by these charts all be downgrade to just rain by time the events happen just cant see it this late in winter this far south.hope im wrong

I have counted between 15 and 20 snowmageddon set ups from varios runs and models for the SE that have ALL been downgraded to rain, or nothing in the last couple of days. So I'm not holding my breath.

[kold weather]

Lokks like the 12z NAE dtill very keen on giving the SE snow and sleet tomorrow, the timing of it is very poor for us however, since daytime temps will probably mean very little chance of settling unless you have a very heavy burst, shame it won't come during the overnight hours because that would have been more interesting for us!

[danm]

The SE is never that good a location for snow from a southerly tracking low that approaches from the SW. We inevitably end up on the east/SE'ern side of the low pressure where there is warm air advection. I remember Feb '09, after our mammoth snow event from the streamer there were several snow events later during that week that dumped huge amounts of snow over parts of the SW, Wales and the Midlands while we had cold rain. These situations are very frustrating as often we are very cose to the snow, but just that bit too far SE where the milder dew points and upper's are. Luton was hit by heavy snow during that spell, while London and the rest of the SE had rain. Thats how close it was.

Edited February 19, 2010 by danm

[saint]

The SE is never that good a location for snow from a southerly tracking low that approaches from the SW. We inevitably end up on the east/SE'ern side of the low pressure where there is warm air advection. I remember Feb '09, after our mammoth snow event from the streamer there were several snow events later during that week that dumped huge amounts of snow over parts of the SW, Wales and the Midlands while we had cold rain. These situations are very frustrating as often we are very cose to the snow, but just that bit too far SE where the milder dew points and upper's are. Luton was hit by heavy snow during that spell, while London and the rest of the SE had rain. Thats how close it was.

It was even closer then that because St. Albans had snow from a few of those events later in the week too!

[BarnetBlizzard]

It was even closer then that because St. Albans had snow from a few of those events later in the week too!

hhahah imagine how pooed off i was. Being so close to you!

[kold weather]

The SE is never that good a location for snow from a southerly tracking low that approaches from the SW. We inevitably end up on the east/SE'ern side of the low pressure where there is warm air advection. I remember Feb '09, after our mammoth snow event from the streamer there were several snow events later during that week that dumped huge amounts of snow over parts of the SW, Wales and the Midlands while we had cold rain. These situations are very frustrating as often we are very cose to the snow, but just that bit too far SE where the milder dew points and upper's are. Luton was hit by heavy snow during that spell, while London and the rest of the SE had rain. Thats how close it was.

Yep for us we need the low to be somewhat further east then what looks like happening so doesn't seem like a big risk for us...

However tomorrow could give snow as could Sunday for more northern parts of the region so there is still plenty to watch out for.

[Tim Bland]

National forecast says snow sunday and so does the NAE / Fax charts. Local bbc forecast says dry and sunny! Can't believe there is so many short term changes to the forecasts. Yesterday They where saying tommorow would be dry and now there is a chance of covering of snow!

How much is their super computer worth?

[Wilks]

IF there's any snow it will be so short lived it's just not worth it - roll on spring now please - more of todays weather would be great, nice and sunny, feeling warm in the sunshine. Just get this rain out the way for next week and then a nice improvement as we head into spring. Lovely.

[kold weather]

Shows just how fluid this situation is really Tim, evn now the models still haven't totally agreed on tomorrows set-up, so I think if anyone has any real confidence about Monday its somewhat misplaced IMO...

Any going to close this one now...