London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[wee]

Rain in Brighton

[Shutterbug Netty]

Still snowing here and have a light dusting on all surfaces!

Wasn't expecting this at all today!!

[crazysnowcatz4]

In Canterbury we have about 4 or 5 flakes falling per minute...

[MAF]

nothing here in C London. radar shows a band of PPN moving west to east and a heavy burst around maidstone way. another one heading to ipswich. there is another band out west but not too sure if it will keep coming towards east or fizzle out

[wee]

nothing here in C London. radar shows a band of PPN moving west to east and a heavy burst around maidstone way. another one heading to ipswich. there is another band out west but not too sure if it will keep coming towards east or fizzle out

It is now sleet and rain here,but cant see us getting anything else over the next few days apart from Rain,can you?

[Kay]

heavy snow falling here!!!! was only expecting rain!!

[MAF]

It is now sleet and rain here,but cant see us getting anything else over the next few days apart from Rain,can you?

to be honest with you. i only ever expect it to rain and if it snows i am a happy bunny the complete nonsense of will it rain/snow been discussed these last couple of days puts me off trying to get excited over things. the weather will do as it pleases, no matter what the models and forecasts want it to do. i said to Coast earlier that the dew temps were quite low compared to ground temps, so am not suprised people in Kent are getting snow now. ho hum, a couple of weeks of winter to go yet.

[wee]

to be honest with you. i only ever expect it to rain and if it snows i am a happy bunny the complete nonsense of will it rain/snow been discussed these last couple of days puts me off trying to get excited over things. the weather will do as it pleases, no matter what the models and forecasts want it to do. i said to Coast earlier that the dew temps were quite low compared to ground temps, so am not suprised people in Kent are getting snow now. ho hum, a couple of weeks of winter to go yet.

Thanks for the reply MAF,like you say best not get excited until you see snow falling from the sky that way there is no dissapointment,lets keep our fingers crossed that maybe just maybe we might see something over the next few weeks .

[yamkin]

better make the most of it, according to the local weather, milder, windier and wetter as the week goes on, hope its just a blip and winter goes out with a bang not a whimper

BBC London forecasts cold all week

[MAF]

Thanks for the reply MAF,like you say best not get excited until you see snow falling from the sky that way there is no dissapointment,lets keep our fingers crossed that maybe just maybe we might see something over the next few weeks .

well i am a man of simple pleasures. Snow in winter is not too much to ask for is it but hey, after years of mild winters i am just happy we actually get a frost some mornings, let alone laying snow. although my doggy keeps wondering where it has all gone. he's only six months old and i am sure he misses playing in the snow

[Eugene]

BBC London forecasts cold all week

Yes yamkin, where the hell are people getting the turning milder as the week goes on from, it looks like getting colder as the week goes on with severe night frosts towards the end of the week.

[Blake7]

Started snowing in Ramsgate, light at the moment but the flakes are big

Temp +1.9c

[MAF]

Yes yamkin, where the hell are people getting the turning milder as the week goes on from, it looks like getting colder as the week goes on with severe night frosts towards the end of the week.

perhaps like the supposed heavy snow forecast a couple of days ago for the SE people just dont trust the forecasts right now. and maybe some people are finally wising up to the fact the models don't drive the weather (as i am very sure a few people do believe they do)

[wee]

well i am a man of simple pleasures. Snow in winter is not too much to ask for is it but hey, after years of mild winters i am just happy we actually get a frost some mornings, let alone laying snow. although my doggy keeps wondering where it has all gone. he's only six months old and i am sure he misses playing in the snow

Here Here,my dog is also missing the snow he is 3 years old but loves it

[Ian Fergusson]

BBC London forecasts cold all week

Won't bore you (nor entitled to do so) with the details, but the snow risk tomorrow is extremely hard to pinpoint based on the frontal wave/waving and PPN intensity in any one spot...... hence you will notice latest UKMO advisories retreat further north based on very latest NAE / high-res modelling of snow risk. Broader UKMO prog into the 10-15 day period is essentially one with snow risk for many areas of UK but also some milder outliers not to be discounted. So yes, cold this week but the ever-increasing offset of insolation / diurnal effect will help mitigate against anything but truly heavy snowfall (thank goodness, cry many businesses and commuters!).

Edited February 15, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[<<Ryan>>]

Snowed heavy here for around 15mins. Probs got 0.5cm covering pretty much everything

[MAF]

Won't bore you (nor entitled to do so) with the details, but the snow risk tomorrow is extremely hard to pinpoint based on the frontal wave/waving and PPN intensity in any one spot...... hence you will notice latest UKMO advisories retreat further north based on very latest NAE / high-res modelling of snow risk. Broader UKMO prog into the 10-15 day period is essentially one with snow risk for many areas of UK but also some milder outliers not to be discounted. So yes, cold this week but the ever-increasing offset of insolation / diurnal effect will help mitigate against anything but truly heavy snowfall (thank goodness, cry many businesses and commuters!).

well i suppose winter has to end at some point Ian. thanks for your input. much appreciated

Here Here,my dog is also missing the snow he is 3 years old but loves it

ah, but you have an advantage over me, your dog gets to run along the beach and go into the sea at summer

i suppose you get to do that too

[wee]

well i suppose winter has to end at some point Ian. thanks for your input. much appreciated

ah, but you have an advantage over me, your dog gets to run along the beach and go into the sea at summer

i suppose you get to do that too

Well i run along the beach and go in the sea,but as for the dog he hates water apart from having a bath .

[nanu]

well i suppose winter has to end at some point Ian. thanks for your input. much appreciated

How about lets end it now.. getting fed up with this hit and miss affair with the model output forum.. 1 minuite "were gonna get 10cm" next day.. "no we aint". day after that " yes its 10cm again..looking good".. 2 hrs later "nope.. it may be rain now"..

SPRING.. GET HERE NOW!!! and dont do this to the summer storms...

[davehowe]

snowing in margate.

[MAF]

How about lets end it now.. getting fed up with this hit and miss affair with the model output forum.. 1 minuite "were gonna get 10cm" next day.. "no we aint". day after that " yes its 10cm again..looking good".. 2 hrs later "nope.. it may be rain now"..

SPRING.. GET HERE NOW!!! and dont do this to the summer storms...

i have to say that even with my attitude of "nothing past 3 days is worth looking at" i was miffed to see the potential for tomorrow/Weds had gone. so am getting into your way of thinking... lets get rid of this rubbish uncertainty and into the warming sun of spring

Well i run along the beach and go in the sea,but as for the dog he hates water apart from having a bath .

perhaps i should bring my dog down for you to run with as he loves the water

[leemondo]

BBC London forecasts cold all week

wonder where they are getting the info from!!! lol, seems odd considering the model thread are progging cold temps, but Mr Fish did say wet and unsettled, hope he is wrong!

[yamkin]

Won't bore you (nor entitled to do so) with the details, but the snow risk tomorrow is extremely hard to pinpoint based on the frontal wave/waving and PPN intensity in any one spot...... hence you will notice latest UKMO advisories retreat further north based on very latest NAE / high-res modelling of snow risk. Broader UKMO prog into the 10-15 day period is essentially one with snow risk for many areas of UK but also some milder outliers not to be discounted. So yes, cold this week but the ever-increasing offset of insolation / diurnal effect will help mitigate against anything but truly heavy snowfall (thank goodness, cry many businesses and commuters!).

On the 21st December 2009 we had heavy rain to start with which steadily turned to heavy snow which was not forecast. It is a forecasters nightmare in situations like this.

[Ian Fergusson]

well i suppose winter has to end at some point Ian. thanks for your input. much appreciated

ah, but you have an advantage over me, your dog gets to run along the beach and go into the sea at summer

i suppose you get to do that too

Note that I've not discounted the snow chances - - it's a lively / noisy signal into the 10-15 days UKMO prog for snow but innumerable caveats attached on a regional scale. This next stalling / waving front event tomorrow will be a forecasting headache for us in many respects (snow forecasts are rightly always left as late as possible and here's the exemplar why)..... I'm not going to be surprised if the likes of Beds, Herts, parts of Bucks, Cambs, Northants, Essex see some snow from all this but maybe a transient point of interest.... hey-ho, roll-on spring / summer and the big convective stuff!

(PS even the 'warmer' outliers in our 10-15 day analyses want to offer colder air back into the UK by Day 10...... please bear this in mind)

Edited February 15, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[MAF]

Note that I've not discounted the snow chances - - it's a lively / noisy signal into the 10-15 days UKMO prog for snow but innumerable caveats atteched on a regional scale. This next stalling / waving front event tomorrow will be a forecasting headache for us in many respects (snow forecasts are rightly always left as late as possible and here's the exemplar why)..... I'm not going to be surprised if the likes of Beds, Herts, parts of Bucks, Cambs, Northants, Essex see some snow from all this but maybe a transient point of interest.... hey-ho, roll-on spring / summer and the big convective stuff!

yep. something more reliable to forecast and just as enjoyable to get a good thunder/lightning storm as it is to get snow.