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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

GFs just come out, T168 is still showing the possible Atlantic breakthrough, if it did come of as shown temperatures would be cool-average so no raging mild SW'lys. I can't really see the Atlantic breaking through at all tbh, I'm expecting subsequent runs to show the low further and further south, I would say the track of these lows to be France not the UK. If the Atlantic did breakthrough it would ruin our chances of cold, as the pattern would reset to a different tune, also we would be stuck in this pattern for a while which would be terrible as the chances of a sustained cold spell are running out.

In the short term it looks cold for at least another week, with the main risk of snow been Northern England and Scotland and at times further south.

Edited by 10123
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

GFs just come out, T168 is still showing the possible Atlantic breakthrough, if it did come of as shown temperatures would be cool-average so no raging mild SW'lys. I can't really see the Atlantic breaking through at all tbh, I'm expecting subsequent runs to show the low further and further south, I would say the track of these lows to be France not the UK. If the Atlantic did breakthrough it would ruin our chances of cold, as the pattern would be reset to a different tune.

In the short term it looks cold for at least another week, with the main risk of snow been Northern England and Scotland and at times further south.

Yes - the possibility for LPs further South is certainly shown by the UKMO 144 - the low there is heading towards Spain

post-9179-12662523201917_thumb.gif.

Also with HP beginning to develop towards Scandinavia

post-9179-12662524341617_thumb.gif

Edited by swilliam
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

I wouldn't be surprised if the northern half of the UK (Scotland and the far north of england) is affected by a full blown bitter easterly while the rest of the UK is kept mostly dry from the dying low pressure.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Might be a few surprises tonight .. Lot's of Snow showers in the SE at the moment and the 12z is a big improvement and has at least -5 850's across the country by morning. The models are such a mess at the moment and the best thing to do is concentrate on the short term and looking at the live weather reports and latest models it is currently very promising .

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Depends what you define as Atlantic breaking through! Between t+150 and t+168 a low deeepns in the SW approaches then moves NE towards the UK. OK, it won't bring super-mild/blow-torch, but it certainly looks like the Atlantic breaking through to me. No doubt someone will disagree.

However, before then, the long-wave trough looks like edging a little further east by the end of the week, so cold polar airmass returning will spread sub 528 dam air across the whole of the UK by the weekend, so a shout at snow almost anywhere, particularly as shortwaves rotate around the upper trough edging east.

Longer term, the main core of energy in the North-Atlantic upper flow looks to remain suppressed, so much milder weather maybe put on hold, but nothing very cold looks in the offing, just marginal set-ups for snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

The low dipping south is a trend that we would like to see and one that I expect to come to fruition. Looking at the way that the pattern is evolving I can see the massive Arctic forming ridge (1060 no less on the ECM!) joining forces with the Greenland pressure rises. With the negative mean zonal wind propagation and withdrawing troughs towards the Pacific, I would think that condition are ripe for a rather large Omega block to form down the line. If only it was that simple.

c

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Light rain here but the temp is falling away but needs too drop a lot more. Anyway the low meanders around finally introducing cooler air towards the end of week. I noticed the met office have moved the snow forecast further north. Can't see it myself but time will tell. In deep FI GFS does what it likes doing and develops a monster low to the south west which moves over the country. No if that went up the channel instead how much better it would be.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

well had a good look at the ukmo and gfs looks like winter over for southern england.

holds on in the north but looking like turning milder here towards end of both models i would add though average in the south and slightly above in the north,

before the cold gets mixed out im sure theres a good 4 days of winter left for midland north.

nothing at all for the southcoast perhapes some sleet over the chilterns before mildish air kicks in.

:(

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

The low dipping south is a trend that we would like to see and one that I expect to come to fruition. Looking at the way that the pattern is evolving I can see the massive Arctic forming ridge (1060 no less on the ECM!) joining forces with the Greenland pressure rises. With the negative mean zonal wind propagation and withdrawing troughs towards the Pacific, I would think that condition are ripe for a rather large Omega block to form down the line. If only it was that simple.

c

i really dont think the low will sink far enough south also notice on the ukmo and gfs features building to our southwest around the messy low.

i think this system could wobble around for atleast 5 days maybe more we have waited nearly 2weeks for the strat to do its stuff,but in honesty i think its a little to late for this now although i dont see mild i dont see very cold either.

and id rather not build any hopes on an omega block or anything from the east or north east its far to messy and i do think febuary has so far been a very big dissapointment full of headaches,

although the models have coped really well after the mess to start with,

it all to messy and although i respect your input,

i think febuary from midlands south is going to be very dissapointing and the models have a firm grip on development and nothing sticks out pointing towards cold.:(

Edited by badboy657
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

well had a good look at the ukmo and gfs looks like winter over for southern england.

holds on in the north but looking like turning milder here towards end of both models i would add though average in the south and slightly above in the north,

before the cold gets mixed out im sure theres a good 4 days of winter left for midland north.

nothing at all for the southcoast perhapes some sleet over the chilterns before mildish air kicks in.

smile.gif

A bit premature, there is cold air reaching you on Friday by then any precipitation will be wintry and cold air is over you for around 3 days, after that it's anyones guess, the GFS does show a big low crashing into the UK but I don't see it happening, probably a channel low which would put you at risk of heavy snow. The cold air in the North of england/Scotland is there for at least a week as well so there plenty on offer in the short-medium term. Admittedly you probably live in one of the the worst places for snow but there is still plenty of cold air around to our north and over much of Britain, what is shown past t150 is pretty much FI as it will continue to change.

Edited by 10123
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Posted
  • Location: Ware, Herts
  • Location: Ware, Herts

UW144-21.GIF?15-17

UKMO t+144 definitely a step in the right direction for cold. A much better ridge over Scandinavia, possibly a link-up with the Greenland high beyond this. I think the GFS will be on its own with the overwhelming Atlantic breakthrough this evening, with the ECM possibly showing a decent run late on.

We have to hope the shallow ridge over the Med doesn't come any farther north or it will deal a blow to hopes of a cold end of February.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

i really dont think the low will sink far enough south also notice on the ukmo and gfs features building to our southwest around the messy low.

i think this system could wobble around for atleast 5 days maybe more we have waited nearly 2weeks for the strat to do its stuff,but in honesty i think its a little to late for this now although i dont see mild i dont see very cold either.

and id rather not build any hopes on an omega block or anything from the east or north east its far to messy and i do think febuary has so far been a very big dissapointment full of headaches,

although the models have coped really well after the mess to start with,

it all to messy and although i respect your input,

i think febuary from midlands south is going to be very dissapointing and the models have a firm grip on development and nothing sticks out pointing towards cold.:drinks:

Have a look at these charts then say "Winter is over for southern England"

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png - Associated Uppers...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1263.png - Thicknesses...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12610.png - and Dewpoints...

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Just want to quickly reply to Frostys post.

I know John H is suggesting a mild start to March but without being rude John H also believed the mild SW/S,lys the models were predicting for last week. The model output does change in F.I and the trick is knowing where the models are wrong and what is the correct pattern.

Back to the models and for me the key is where will the LP to our SW track at +144. The 12Z was abit of an outlier according to the ensembles. The models may suggest this tracking NE bringing a risk of mild SW,lys but for me personally I feel the blocking to our N will be further S come next weekend with the UK remaining on the N side of the LP. What this all basically means is come next week there is a chance of pulling in much colder E/NE,lys.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Back to the models and for me the key is where will the LP to our SW track at +144. The 12Z was abit of an outlier according to the ensembles. The models may suggest this tracking NE bringing a risk of mild SW,lys but for me personally I feel the blocking to our N will be further S come next weekend with the UK remaining on the N side of the LP. What this all basically means is come next week there is a chance of pulling in much colder E/NE,lys.

Agree, the models this winter aren't coping with blocking that well, I fully expect high pressure to take charge and the low to move south leaving at least the northern half of the UK in a bitter easterly.

Edited by 10123
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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Correct me if im wrong.

Does the 12z put tomorrows poss snow event from the stalling front very marginal compared to the 6z? The uppers do not look cold enough?

Hi Archie , the 12z is actually an improvement , mainly due to lower due points :

48_30.gif

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Just want to quickly reply to Frostys post.

I know John H is suggesting a mild start to March but without being rude John H also believed the mild SW/S,lys the models were predicting for last week. The model output does change in F.I and the trick is knowing where the models are wrong and what is the correct pattern.

Back to the models and for me the key is where will the LP to our SW track at +144. The 12Z was abit of an outlier according to the ensembles. The models may suggest this tracking NE bringing a risk of mild SW,lys but for me personally I feel the blocking to our N will be further S come next weekend with the UK remaining on the N side of the LP. What this all basically means is come next week there is a chance of pulling in much colder E/NE,lys.

Not like you to forecast an Easterly TEITS!

What are your thoughts for tommorow / Weds? 12z GFS seems to continue with the main snow risk being over the Midlands?

This is an odd looking chart with the UK surrounded by LP systems http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

Could be interesting along the M4 coridoor if it came off though!

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Whilst I can see where some (including me I hasten to add) are getting the notion that we will be in a (relatively cool) Sou' Westerly by this time next week I am getting the feeling that we are seeing the start of a model shift back to a colder scenario. A few runs of late have shown increasingly tentative signs of this. Will the ECM expand on the theme???

The MJO seems VERY reluctant to go round into phase 1, instead looking likely to head on back to phase 7. Northern blocking is likely to start showing its hand more and more over the coming runs I suspect. Watch this space...???

A notable analogue for me would be late December 1978. A similar longwave pattern albeit with a stronger Eastern vortex. Mid Feb 1978 not a million miles off either. Both obviously fantastic outcomes, maybe wishful thinking on my part however. :drinks: It makes me wonder though... has a split vortex helped or hindered us here though???

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny and Dry with a Hard Frost.
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey

"This is an odd looking chart with the UK surrounded by LP systems"

Yes, those sorts of nonsense often get thrown up on the borders of FI! Absolute tosh of course. My golden rule over these sorts of things is "if it looks wrong it almost certainly is wrong....."

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL

Whilst I can see where some (including me I hasten to add) are getting the notion that we will be in a (relatively cool) Sou' Westerly by this time next week I am getting the feeling that we are seeing the start of a model shift back to a colder scenario. A few runs of late have shown increasingly tentative signs of this. Will the ECM expand on the theme???

The MJO seems VERY reluctant to go round into phase 1, instead looking likely to head on back to phase 7. Northern blocking is likely to start showing its hand more and more over the coming runs I suspect. Watch this space...???

A notable analogue for me would be late December 1978. A similar longwave pattern albeit with a stronger Eastern vortex. Mid Feb 1978 not a million miles off either. Both obviously fantastic outcomes, maybe wishful thinking though on my part. It makes me wonder though... has a split vortext helped or hindered us here though???

i really do agree with you there! The models have been hinting a colder trend on and off for the past 4-5days (correct me if im wrong) and if this trend keeps improving then mid to end of February will be looking better! Isn't the end of February always best for cold blocking and easterlies? would be nice if the out come becomes in our favour!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

"This is an odd looking chart with the UK surrounded by LP systems"

Yes, those sorts of nonsense often get thrown up on the borders of FI! Absolute tosh of course. My golden rule over these sorts of things is "if it looks wrong it almost certainly is wrong....."

Yes, its as if all the PPN justs goes round and round just clipping the coastal fringes.

The new fax charts look interesting for tomorrow, seems the 528 dam line is way further South, also there seems to be a wave developing along the occlusion in the SE which wasn't there before, as this moves back towards the Midlands there could be a lot more rain, sleet and snow then was expected maybe.

post-3094-12662563953117_thumb.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

The Mean on the GFS 12z Ensembles shows that Mild Low as an outlier on the 22nd with the Mean at 850mb staying at -5 or below over the Midlands.

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Yes, its as if all the PPN justs goes round and round just clipping the coastal fringes.

The new fax charts look interesting for tomorrow, seems the 528 dam line is way further South, also there seems to be a wave developing along the occlusion in the SE which wasn't there before, as this moves back towards the Midlands there could be a lot more rain, sleet and snow then was expected maybe.

post-3094-12662563953117_thumb.gif

Yes, this looks like an upgrade in potential! I think it is very boarderline and a difficult one for the meto to call. North London and East Mids could see allot of percipitation but I think it will be doen to now casting to see what falls. I saw heavy settling snow around Luton (chilterns) this afternoon when they forecast rain so could be bas around that area.

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