Model Output Discussion

[snowray]

Yes, this looks like an upgrade in potential! I think it is very boarderline and a difficult one for the meto to call. North London and East Mids could see allot of percipitation but I think it will be doen to now casting to see what falls. I saw heavy settling snow around Luton (chilterns) this afternoon when they forecast rain so could be bas around that area.

Yes I would agree, Tues night it will probably turn to snow over the Chilterns and as it moves into the Midlands there could be fun and games on Weds morning right up the middle of the country.

Of course it will be the areas seeing the heaviest PPN that are more likely to get the white stuff.

Edited February 15, 2010 by snowray

[Eugene]

Looking cold all week and potentially snowy for the midlands on wednesday with a front stalling and evaporative cooling coming into effect

Looking at the ensembles it looks like we may stay stay chilly until the very near end of february, after that who cares

An excellent winter this has been with another chance at a below average month, three winter below average months who would of believed it

[January Snowstorm]

The trend this evening is colder by all three.

Quite a lot of potential showing up now, ECM looks awesome in the medium range

[snowray]

Got to laugh though, the 1st lot of bitter Easterlies ended up just clipping the SE last week, this lot look like just clipping N Scotland. Now if everything got shuved SE by the same amount that last weeks lot did, then we would be in business! None the less, still lots of interest to come for most areas.

Anyone remember this one from 3rd Feb?

Edited February 15, 2010 by snowray

[January Snowstorm]

The front on Weds will be stalling but weakening I'm afraid. Towards the weekend and it's a poor outlook for snow fans (apart from very high ground) as milder air will get ahead of any PPN coming in from the SW, and beyond that perhaps a very disturbed picture. As I said last night only to be patronised by the usual suspects, this sort of Northern block cannot evolve into a better situation cold wise until there is a pattern reset.

No time for a pattern reset Ian, all we can hope for is an improving picture in the short term which is happening. Nothing majorly cold but as I said earlier is it cold or snow we want? If the latter then improving chances through this week

[cooling climate]

The models are still in a mess in the medium range but I am confident they will sort

themselves out. Heights will build down from the north with the lows tracking further

south and east and then a spell of very cold wintry weather.

we had a nice 45minutes or so of heavy wet snow this afternoon by the way.

Should just add to any newer members watching this is only my opinion of how

the synoptics will play out later in the week and through next week.

ECM out to t240 and it looks like its made a right pigs ear of thing again.

Edited February 15, 2010 by cooling climate

[MR EXTREMES]

No time for a pattern reset Ian, all we can hope for is an improving picture in the short term which is happening. Nothing majorly cold but as I said earlier is it cold or snow we want? If the latter then improving chances through this week

i dont see the excitement in the ecm up until 168h is dreadfull absolutely dreadfull.

and its turning out to be like i said a few posts ago the model do not support a cold outlook at all.

[Tom D]

After what happened a couple of weeks ago, I can't help but think the ECM in particular is overdoing the SW to NE track of the low pressure systems. By +144 on the ECM we're heading for good old fashioned south-westerlies as the Atlantic powerhouse slams the ridge over Scandinavia out of it's path, setting up a deep trough to our north.

Still time for heights to increase in this important region.

Edited February 15, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[MR EXTREMES]

I agree entirely nothing snowy which is what most people want, some of the comments on here give false hope to those who do and can be very misleading. A hope of colder weather is still undecided.

thank you im glad some are seeing what im seeing as i just said the ecm does not support the longterm build of cold nore do they support the cold holding on longer than 5 days,

jh said in his blog how it would turnout and as far as im concerned hes bang on the money well done john.

thats not to say the far north of scotland wont continue to see cold outbreaks beyond the weekend but thease will come and go,

very messy ecm chart along with the ukmo and gfs and from my opion it was to be expected.

[TEITS]

The front on Weds will be stalling but weakening I'm afraid. Towards the weekend and it's a poor outlook for snow fans (apart from very high ground) as milder air will get ahead of any PPN coming in from the SW, and beyond that perhaps a very disturbed picture. As I said last night only to be patronised by the usual suspects, this sort of Northern block cannot evolve into a better situation cold wise until there is a pattern reset.

Alot depends on exactly where this stalls although around Essex to London seems a good bet at the moment. As this moves back W it could turn to snow with locations such as W parts of E Anglia/E Midlands looking favoured. As this moves further W it could weaken even further.

As for your comment about milder air ahead of the precip depends on the exact track of the LP. The ECM +168/+192 are not mild charts!!

Finally with requiring a pattern reset and again I disagree. This pattern will not bring a spell of prolonged E,lys but if the LP track to the S of the UK then colder E/NE,lys will back W.

Lets again remmember why the models backtracked from the mild S,lys. The simple reason is they suggested LP tracking into Scandi when the reality was a SW tracking SE allowing the block to back SW. Surely by now we have learn't to be cautious about the model output beyond +144, especially considering the pattern we currently have.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some of the projections of snowy NE'lys in FI seem somewhat far-fetched, but I think some people are also underplaying the snow potential for the British Isles as a whole- maybe looking too much at the south?

It's already been snowing a bit in the south-east and we can expect this front to stall, and only slowly weaken through tomorrow and Wednesday. The main issue IMHO will be marginality rather than lack of precipitation, with most areas probably seeing a mix of rain/sleet/snow, rather than any meaningful accumulations on the ground, but locally there could be a sizeable dumping- the proverbial forecaster's nightmare.

Further north and west, cold and bright with wintry showers in the west looks like a likely assessment, and snowfalls at low levels will probably be fairly widespread but with a tendency for thawing in the sun during the day.

At the weekend a lot hinges on the precise track of the deep low coming up from the SW. Today's ECM brings it further south and east than GFS which would keep the moderately cold regime going for longer.

Significantly, temperatures are looking set to be about the same as they've been during the recent NE'ly, so while it may not be far below average, it is still a moderately cold outlook for most.

[Bristawl Si]

The models are still in a mess in the medium range but I am confident they will sort

themselves out. Heights will build down from the north with the lows tracking further

south and east and then a spell of very cold wintry weather.

we had a nice 45minutes or so of heavy wet snow this afternoon by the way.

Should just add to any newer members watching this is only my opinion of how

the synoptics will play out later in the week and through next week.

ECM out to t240 and it looks like its made a right pigs ear of thing again.

Well, our local forecast just now on BBC was very confident of milder (8 to 9c) by end of the week with rain or showers - didn't even hint at possible colder weather - obviously for Bristol, Glos, Wilts and the South west - so my interpretation is the Meto are pretty confident of their forecast for the next week or so - maybe more wintry up north and for a time later tom in Midlands.

The model runs are showing, for me, a typical 'transition' period in mid-Feb, from the cold depths of winter to a less cold picture with a mix of precipitation types. I'd bet on a real north/south split in terms of cold and mild by the weekend.

Whether the colder weather, with possible snow, returns to more southern parts of the UK during the next week is still up in the air IMO. Or winter could just gradually 'morph' into Spring.

[kev238]

The chances ofa wide spread freeze are dwindling- but the chances of disruptive snowfall events (shortlived) are still there and will be whilst there is that big block of cold to the north east.

To be honest, I would welcome some milder weather now! This winter has promised a lot but delivered a max of 4cm of snow in Nottingham- the best stuff for this location has always been 144 -168 hours out!

[Eugene]

The front on Weds will be stalling but weakening I'm afraid. Towards the weekend and it's a poor outlook for snow fans (apart from very high ground) as milder air will get ahead of any PPN coming in from the SW, and beyond that perhaps a very disturbed picture. As I said last night only to be patronised by the usual suspects, this sort of Northern block cannot evolve into a better situation cold wise until there is a pattern reset.

Not a poor outlook for cold fans though with some severe frosts towards the end of the week and staying cold/sunny with cold >-5C 850 hPa air covering the country, you have a very negative way at looking at things ian and its no wonder posters get agitated by you so you get no sympathy from me for the way posters treated you last night.

The winter officially is coming to an end now and its been a cold one so far, i guess you`ll be posting like this in the spring too when people are looking for warmth,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1023.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png - Very cold night thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10210.png - Nice crisp dewpoints with lots of sunshine

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png - Cold day for the vast majority, no 8C or 9C for most.

[Geordiesnow]

The winter officially is coming to an end now and its been a cold one so far, i guess you`ll be posting like this in the spring too when people are looking for warmth,

I remember last year eugene you critisized some for looking for cold charts in Spring, nothing wrong with a good old spring Northerly i say.

Charts are cold but probably not the most snowiest, as ever the problem with these set ups, its getting the cold and PPN together but we do at times so some areas could still surprise snowfalls this week.

Can't see much sign of any cold shot from the east. Something that normally happens in a -NAO is for easterlies to hit Iceland and we are left with low pressure over us with small pools of cold air.

[kold weather]

Yep I agree TWS, I think people are indeed underestimating the snow risk in certain parts of the country, the GFS ensembles for instance are very interesting as is the 12z ECM, both would give a probable snow event for the weekend period.

Some big uncertainties thats for sure and there will be a mixture of precip about, but the GFS op run was probably for the country as a whole one of the least snowy runs tonight along with the UKMO. We need both the LP near the UK to hold for as long as possible, and the LP to either go well south or to cut across the country SW-NE over eastern England.

[Eugene]

Alot depends on exactly where this stalls although around Essex to London seems a good bet at the moment. As this moves back W it could turn to snow with locations such as W parts of E Anglia/E Midlands looking favoured. As this moves further W it could weaken even further.

As for your comment about milder air ahead of the precip depends on the exact track of the LP. The ECM +168/+192 are not mild charts!!

Finally with requiring a pattern reset and again I disagree. This pattern will not bring a spell of prolonged E,lys but if the LP track to the S of the UK then colder E/NE,lys will back W.

Lets again remmember why the models backtracked from the mild S,lys. The simple reason is they suggested LP tracking into Scandi when the reality was a SW tracking SE allowing the block to back SW. Surely by now we have learn't to be cautious about the model output beyond +144, especially considering the pattern we currently have.

Probably one of the best posts tonight with a very balanced look and view at the weather, the faxes move the front further southeast than GFS so the risk could be just southeast of the midlands we wont know until the actual day where it stalls to be honest.

Yes as i said this morning too you would think after all the failed southwesterlies taking over on the charts they would be more cautious, i think some just moan for the sake of it to be honest, with the likelihood of three below average winter months this has been one of the best winters in a long time, if this winter disappoints people god help them when we get a more normal or above average winter which is as inevitable as ian brown calling another mild winter for 2010/11 ..not sure if that`ll be the one though

I may be the only one here but i see a the potential for after a short atlantic incursion for pressure rising again to block the atlantic

But moves the front back northwestwards later on wednesday into the midlands

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif - With it being nighttime the risk would be improved of the precipitation being snow, the air is definately cold enough

[MR EXTREMES]

Probably one of the best posts tonight with a very balanced look and view at the weather, the faxes move the front further southeast than GFS so the risk could be just southeast of the midlands we wont know until the actual day where it stalls to be honest.

Yes as i said this morning too you would think after all the failed southwesterlies taking over on the charts they would be more cautious, i think some just moan for the sake of it to be honest, with the likelihood of three below average winter months this has been one of the best winters in a long time, if this winter disappoints people god help them when we get a more normal or above average winter which is as inevitable as ian brown calling another mild winter for 2010/11 ..not sure if that`ll be the one though

I may be the only one here but i see a the potential for after a short atlantic incursion for pressure rising again to block the atlantic

so from the model outputs tonight you see an amazing outlook?

i think this winter has been better than many,

but it would have been even better without the dissapointments.

either people have short memories or apart from kent,

we have waited for around 4 week for the amazing blocking that did happen but did not favour the uk,

yet people continue to think that we once gain are heading towards another cold spell,

to be honest with charts like we have been seeing for the last few days its not likely at all,

i dont think its a case of being a newbie,

i think it common sense.

with charts like this we are in middle ground ofcoarse your either hear the mild charts or cold charts depending on how dissapointed you are or which suits your weather type.

there are some that will continue to call blocking and cold setups until spring warmth is apon us but it only helps to fuel dissapointment,

i think TWS and ian brown and john h and some others tend not to cling on to fi more so when the models are as messy as they are atm.

id like to add although its been a below average winter its not been extremely snowy here in the south.

it made a change agreed but i expect next winter to be back to square one anyway with solar output picking up in a dramatic way.

[kold weather]

Yeah thats quite an interesting evolution thats for sure eugene, needs close watching I feel. Also a good set of charts for the north with a trough coming up for Wednesday afternoon which probably will give wintry showers for the north.

ps, if you want a good shot at snow, watch NE Scotland over the next 36-48hrs, could see as much as 15cms up there in that period.

Edited February 15, 2010 by kold weather

[Frosty.]

Am I the only one who thinks the ECM 12z is a wintry run for northern britain?

This next week looks very messy and complex synoptically as low pressure wobbles around the uk with slow moving fronts but colder air does look like feeding into northeast britain with sleet and snow at times but I can understand the southern anguish that the cold air is not really looking like digging down into southern england, a wintry outlook up north though in my opinion.

[aspire27]

The models are still in a mess in the medium range but I am confident they will sort

themselves out. Heights will build down from the north with the lows tracking further

south and east and then a spell of very cold wintry weather.

we had a nice 45minutes or so of heavy wet snow this afternoon by the way.

Should just add to any newer members watching this is only my opinion of how

the synoptics will play out later in the week and through next week.

ECM out to t240 and it looks like its made a right pigs ear of thing again.

Sorry CC but once again you have added a good 'get out clause' in your post regarding cold. There is NOTHING significant showing in the models regarding cold this week. Maybe some wet snow in places. Any real snow limited to N and NE Scotland this week. Please please stop getting the hopes up of 'newer members'.

Well, our local forecast just now on BBC was very confident of milder (8 to 9c) by end of the week with rain or showers - didn't even hint at possible colder weather - obviously for Bristol, Glos, Wilts and the South west - so my interpretation is the Meto are pretty confident of their forecast for the next week or so - maybe more wintry up north and for a time later tom in Midlands.

The model runs are showing, for me, a typical 'transition' period in mid-Feb, from the cold depths of winter to a less cold picture with a mix of precipitation types. I'd bet on a real north/south split in terms of cold and mild by the weekend.

Whether the colder weather, with possible snow, returns to more southern parts of the UK during the next week is still up in the air IMO. Or winter could just gradually 'morph' into Spring.

Good post Bristle boy, very realistic. The gradual morph to spring is on it way. My weather station had a maximum of 8.5 degrees today.

Not a poor outlook for cold fans though with some severe frosts towards the end of the week and staying cold/sunny with cold >-5C 850 hPa air covering the country, you have a very negative way at looking at things ian and its no wonder posters get agitated by you so you get no sympathy from me for the way posters treated you last night.

The winter officially is coming to an end now and its been a cold one so far, i guess you`ll be posting like this in the spring too when people are looking for warmth,

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1021.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1023.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn9017.png - Very cold night thursday.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10210.png - Nice crisp dewpoints with lots of sunshine

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10217.png - Cold day for the vast majority, no 8C or 9C for most.

Sorry but once again, 'severe frosts'??? Dont think so. Severe frost is what the country had towards the end of Dec, early Jan. People now need to realise that we are entering the end of winter and heading for march.

Please can we stop the chasing the cold that has never really been showed this month. The only real cold has been in FI, and as FI neared it was downgrades all the way as I said and got slated. As per last week regarding the 'easterly'.

So this week some wintry PPN about the country, any snow and cold weather is in N/NE Scotland. Hope people start to realise this and stop chasing something that has not ever been consistanlty modeled.

[FENDER.]

I think you have to be realistic, the indications are for daytime temps of 4-6c across England throughout this week. That would mean rain for most. As for F1 much of the same, perhaps becomming milder. A proper cold spell is a pretty long shot now.

[Frosty.]

We need some members from scotland to give their view on the models because it looks like wintry weather is very likely up there for at least another week and possibly longer, the moaning from some in the south is becoming tiresome.

[kold weather]

Am I the only one who thinks the ECM 12z is a wintry run for northern britain?

I have to admit I also think the ECM could be a fairly wintry run for the regions north of the Midlands, of course further south as you mention, it does look the wrong side of marginal unless something alters but thats not to say some parts aren't gonig to do well, parts of E.Scotland could get nailed this week...

[robert]

Not a poor outlook for cold fans though with some severe frosts towards the end of the week and staying cold/sunny with cold >-5C 850 hPa air covering the country, you have a very negative way at looking at things ian and its no wonder posters get agitated by you so you get no sympathy from me for the way posters treated you last night.

The winter officially is coming to an end now and its been a cold one so far, i guess you`ll be posting like this in the spring too when people are looking for warmth,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1023.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png - Very cold night thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10210.png - Nice crisp dewpoints with lots of sunshine

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.png - Cold day for the vast majority, no 8C or 9C for most.

Yes spring will be upon us soon maybe! but you can get snow even in June! lol not as I remember but I have been told this.

I am pleased with the models of late and do indeed think that a lot are underestimating the snow potential here.