Model Output Discussion

[snowmadchrisuk]

GFS has been pretty consistent for quite a large Snow event tomorrow night , and the 18z has the precipitation doing a full 360 deg round the Low and eventually effecting the whole country. I don't think this potential should be ignored at such close range .

[TEITS]

GFS has been pretty consistent for quite a large Snow event tomorrow night , and the 18z has the precipitation doing a full 360 deg round the Low and eventually effecting the whole country. I don't think this potential should be ignored at such close range .

I feel tomorrow night will come down to radar watching. The risk of snow is definitely as the front moves back W but as it does so will weaken. Im not convinced the GFS is right and feel the precip will weaken across the E Midlands. So at the moment I wouldn't make many assumptions about snowfall because alot depends on how strong the front remains as it backs W.

Beyond this and looking into the weekend (20th/21st) and the trend has definitely turned colder. Using the Cambs mean for the weekend and its dropped from -4 to -7C.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100215/18/t850Cambridgeshire.png

So the risk of snow for pretty much everyone this week into the weekend although impossible to say which locations as these details are difficult to pin down.

[billy]

Morning all, a fantastic fantasy island from the gfs this morning and the ukmo has a low running through the channel at 144hrs which looks like it would drag some of that very cold air our way from the north east . I would think if there was a 168hr chart on the ukmo it would look pretty interesting for cold lovers . Ecm not so good though .

Edited February 16, 2010 by billy

[Frosty.]

Well having gone through all the 00z output, i'm struggling to find any mild weather at all, in fact, there is no mild weather on the current models anywhere across the uk. It looks cold in all areas but the coldest and snowiest weather looks like being in scotland and also the hardest frosts but snow could occur anywhere if these charts verify, a special mention for the gem 00z which I think is the pick so far today but also the gfs in FI which would bring a mega cold start to march with heavy snow.

[cooling climate]

The models are slowly, slowly drifting everything further south and east from

what I can see. The GFS looks to be picking up on height rises to the northeast

although this is way out in FI land.

I think the models will bring this forward in time as the models catch on to whats

happening in the stratosphere to the north and northeast.

Weather wise a very interesting week to come especially so for Scotland.

As for next week and the first week of March much more of the country will be

joining in the fun and games I think.

[Lynxus]

While these are for my area , It should give a general indication ( considering the UK is a very small place anyway )

2M shows a nice drop off over in FI.

-13 , Om nom nom nom.

Quite a Bit of PPn towards the end.

I suppose if its cold enough at the end of the month there could be quite some amount of snow.

Still far away however

Edited February 16, 2010 by Lynxus

[snowfish]

An interesting week coming up on the charts. All models show cold - for those like myself, in the southern quarter expect cold rain and breezy at least until thursday night?! Thereafter, I think into next weekend things could become more wintry in flavour.....

[johnholmes]

There is little 'yellow' on this mornings temperature charts for the FI part of the GFS run-its had a fair amount over several runs in the past 48 hours.

So its a cold rather than any mild forecast short and longer term-so again spring is on hold.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well IMO this weekend coming could be good for snow on a widespread scale because we have the colder uppers (-4) across all of the country and -6C Uppers for most. If that happens then all we need is PPN, as it should fall as snow. Looks like its going to be a very wintry week for Scotland in particular, but not exculsivly. I think the Pennines also will do very well this week for snow. Spring certainly does not look like coming anytime soon, so IMO a cold start to spring is on the cards

[weather eater]

I see model discussion is all the rage on the thread this morning, I would ask you to not get involved and let the mods sort it out.

Having been through the GFS, ECM, UKMO and the GEM this morning what is abundantly clear is the struggle with how to deal with the stalled LP, this is leading to all sorts of solutions being offered by the models and a conclusion for me that all options are available. And frankly I haven't a clue in regards future evolution; expect the unexpected is a not bad place to be as we head towards March.

[thevalley]

On the way to work this morning very heavy rain - mixed in with large lumps of wet snow. If this was all snow we would have had 4ins of snow by now and blizzard conditions. Temps at 2.8c its so very close. |Can the experts explain what would it take for a snow event in these conditions. Im thinking 1981 when heavy rain turned to heavy snow. The charts today look as though it wouldn't take much to have another Dec 81 event. . Apart from that its bloody horrible out there- lets hope f1 verifies and we have a last hooray for this wonderful cold winter- if you like that sort of thing.

[NorthantsSnow]

There is little 'yellow' on this mornings temperature charts for the FI part of the GFS run-its had a fair amount over several runs in the past 48 hours.

So its a cold rather than any mild forecast short and longer term-so again spring is on hold.

Not on hold at all. We're still in winter for at least another 12 days.

I know you're on the lookout for some milder weather John, but I'm still not seeing anything particularly mild in the offing as we head towards late Feb.

[Weather-history]

.

Sorry but even if Robert was correct I still wouldn't give credit to someone who relies on a spirit called Matthew to predict the weather!

Hmmmm...it was the same spirit that told Robert that we would have a drought duirng the summer of 2007 when infact it turned out to be the wettest May-July period on record.

Stick to the models, I say!

A fair chance Manchester may have to wait to March to record its first double digit maximum of the year.

Edited February 16, 2010 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

I'm not sure where you get the idea I'm 'looking for mild'. Perhaps you find it odd but I am actually a cold weather fan-in moderation that is!

But when I comment on the models I do try as much as I can to be objective and not to show bias to either cold or mild in the inter half of the year.

[NorthantsSnow]

I'm not sure where you get the idea I'm 'looking for mild'. Perhaps you find it odd but I am actually a cold weather fan-in moderation that is!

But when I comment on the models I do try as much as I can to be objective and not to show bias to either cold or mild in the inter half of the year.

Unless I'm mistaken, you said as much on this thread not so long ago!

In any case, I apologise if I misinterpreted "spring on hold" in mid Feb as mild bias creeping in.

[Frosty.]

Really good model output for cold fans this morning, upgrades for the south later this week and through next week with no mild breakdown currently showing, very wintry charts for scotland in particular with snow at times and widespread frosts which could become severe in the highlands and there is always the threat of lows tracking into our cold air and dumping a lot of snow just about anywhere in the uk from the weekend onwards. The GEM 00z is a stunning run, surprised nobody else has commented on it yet!

[jethro]

So is it going to be cold and snowy or not?

Got hundreds of Roses to prune, need some guidance here folks, what's in store over the next couple of weeks?

[TEITS]

The GEM 00z is a stunning run, surprised nobody else has commented on it yet!

Been too busy mate but now after looking at the GEM its an excellent run.

This is a belting chart for N/E Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif

What I like about the model output this morning is the LP to our SW during the weekend looks to be taking a more S,ly track but also moving E instead of NE. This means the medium term is looking colder than it was these past few days.

[Nights King]

So is it going to be cold and snowy or not?

Got hundreds of Roses to prune, need some guidance here folks, what's in store over the next couple of weeks?

Im sure this is wrong thread don't prune until march.

full prune march half prune in sept/october.

[D KARLSON]

There is little 'yellow' on this mornings temperature charts for the FI part of the GFS run-its had a fair amount over several runs in the past 48 hours.

So its a cold rather than any mild forecast short and longer term-so again spring is on hold.

Cant disagree there ,but there are some subtle changes in the models this morning and Met website also alludes to some of these changes with wintry showers forecast for the north and east this indicates a trough of low pressure sliding south east and introducing easterly winds or southeasterly ,with high pressure once again building over scandinavia and russia.

Temperatures over scandinavia and russia are set to plummet almost reaching record values in Arkhangel with nearly -40 forecast and this intensely cold dense air is slowly pushing west and south west with the high pressure ridging towards us.

Although i cant see the BEEB sticking their necks out just bet , a big pattern change could well be on the cards as i cant see this low hanging on much longer than next week ,before this biterly cold air simply barges it out of the way and although i try to to be as objective as i can i think there are some straws to clutch for cold lovers here lets see if the models or at least the UkMO can continue the theme 60% or even 70 % chance at the moment of this very cold air returning !!!!

[Weather-history]

06z is showing a big snow event for northern England for Monday

[TEITS]

Just when I thought tomorrow is sorted the NAE changes its mind!

The front currently to the SE will back NW and turn to snow across Lincs/E Midlands towards the SW.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/16/basis06/ukuk/prty/10021712_1606.gif

[snowmadchrisuk]

I'm not sure where you get the idea I'm 'looking for mild'. Perhaps you find it odd but I am actually a cold weather fan-in moderation that is!

But when I comment on the models I do try as much as I can to be objective and not to show bias to either cold or mild in the inter half of the year.

Correct me if i'm wrong John , but all you said the other day was that you didn't see any bitterly Cold North Easterly's in the forecast due to it being a slow moving pattern . I still don't see any Raging bitterly Cold North Easterly's just marginal Snow opportunities , which I don't think you have ever disagreed with , So I find it amazing that you are now known as Mr Mild on the Forum (AKA Dan Corbett) .

Chris

[karyo]

06z is showing a big snow event for northern England for Monday

Very tasty! In fact, I see plenty of opportunities for snow for northwest England over the weekend.

I've had some heavy snow this morning! North Manchester had quite a lot while south Manchester nothing!

Karyo

[Never snows where i live]

Very tasty! In fact, I see plenty of opportunities for snow for northwest England over the weekend.

I've had some heavy snow this morning! North Manchester had quite a lot while south Manchester nothing!

Karyo

Have you got a link for me to look at please.