Model Output Discussion

[Freezing-Point]

As the models stand there is certainly a good snow event showing for next Monday even though it's well out in FI. I also thunk some members need to have a reality check and stop getting excited about charts from MARCH!!! Have you learnt nothing yet?!? xD

Look at the GFS 6z +384. I am not getting excited about it, merly posting it as a model output of which this is the discussion. A blizzard to match the best of them. I am interested to see if this trend is kept up in subsequent runs as many other members will be also

[weather eater]

I have to say I think some are getting ahead of themselves; we are going to see a lot of evolutions from the models as they try and get a handle on what to do with the LP. CC while I admire your optimism I feel your lack of objectivity is going to find you out sooner or later, let’s hope its later, a final drum roll for what been a good winter would be great.

[SP1986]

In my own humble opinion looking at the evolution the GFS has been throwing out day today, I think it has to a certain extent 'lost it', of course that's not to say that the GFS will not pick up a trend but at the moment there's nothing much in it's outputs I can say with any great deal of confident I personally think will happen.

The near timeframe look like remaining similar, that I can well believe.

I think the ECM and UKMO are definitely the models to follow for this one, it's going to be a strange sort of time in the world of model watching.

I'm actually fascinated at how stubborn the pattern is, I couldnt care less if it turns mild or cold, snow or rain but for me it's really interesting to see what step is next in what appears to be checkmate!

[sandstorm2]

The GFS at +384 is the chart that I dream at +24 for winter, of course it won't happen but.....one of these years.

SS2

[weather eater]

Look at the GFS 6z +384. I am not getting excited about it, merly posting it as a model output of which this is the discussion. A blizzard to match the best of them. I am interested to see if this trend is kept up in subsequent runs as many other members will be also

We have seen quite a few mouth watering charts in FI this winter, all of which have disappeared or been watered down, remember a couple of weeks ago run after run on every model with a mouth watering easterly and remember what we ended up with, I really feel that paying attention to long range charts is a waste of time the bulk of the time, I would say especially so at the moment.

[kold weather]

Very much agree John, I don't think the pattern can shift to bring very cold air across us, and more likely is the breaking thru of LP from the SW to cause a slight pressure raise over Europe.

Normally I'd agree Ian but when you get such a strong record breaking -ve AO like we've had, your pretty much certain to get another reload of a -ve AO because the N.Hemisphere becomes so stronglyadjusted to that pattern (the southerly jet) that to some extent it feedbacks itself and so whilst I doubt it'd go as extreme again your very likely to see a reload.

As i said earlier what I expect is for as you mention perhaps a breakthrough, then pressure rising to our north and the whiole lot gets sucked up, and with the jet already well south, you could go from a mild southerly to a cold northerly/easterly in the space of 48hrs.

Put it this way Ian, currently the global set-up synoptical is responding like a 60s winter, you *cannot* use the 90s as a template in this evolution thanks to the super -ve AO present.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

You said to expect that the first 10 days February to be the mildest of the winter for the CET. Ruddy well wasn't......

yes the term glass houses springs to mind here.Ian forecast blowtorch last winter and again this winter im not sure

he's in a position to be making remarks about sub zero Febs!!!

Anyway,had some snow today and the posibilty of some more at the end of the week according to gfs.

some elevated areas could see some decent dumpings in the next few days,what a nice end to a freezing cold winter.

[MR EXTREMES]

although its been cooler than some years its nothing incredible it all depends on location,

as for the model output i await the next couple of days outputs just to see the mega cold event downgraded like our recent easterly that we been waiting for 4 weeks.

i expect for the outputs today to change in a big way in the next couple of days swinging towards a pretty damp month as for march i do feel it will be average to slightly below.

but not the mega freeze cooling climate is hoping for.

the ens do not support a deep cold pattern at all as for the next 5 days or so the models do suggest marginal snowfall but this is likely to turn things more damp in the next 4 or 5 days.

[Duane S.]

Normally I'd agree Ian but when you get such a strong record breaking -ve AO like we've had, your pretty much certain to get another reload of a -ve AO because the N.Hemisphere becomes so stronglyadjusted to that pattern (the southerly jet) that to some extent it feedbacks itself and so whilst I doubt it'd go as extreme again your very likely to see a reload.

As i said earlier what I expect is for as you mention perhaps a breakthrough, then pressure rising to our north and the whiole lot gets sucked up, and with the jet already well south, you could go from a mild southerly to a cold northerly/easterly in the space of 48hrs.

Put it this way Ian, currently the global set-up synoptical is responding like a 60s winter, you *cannot* use the 90s as a template in this evolution thanks to the super -ve AO present.

Post of the week!

[grab my graupel]

The team has had to move/delete several posts from here

May I gently remind everyone that this thread is for discussing the 'Model Output' ONLY!!

Can we use the threads provided for discussing other topics please?

Thank you

[Frosty.]

Thanks for replying John

Interesting to note that your opinion hasn't really altered from a few days ago and it's fair to say there is no deep cold showing in the reliable timeframe but some of the FI output is mouth wateringly good from a cold perspective, i've just looked at the gfs 6z and it is showing some incredibly wintry weather for the last week of feb and first week of march although having just read the latest meto update, it is certainly a watered down version of the above run but I maintain that scotland, especially further north will have a particularly wintry spell during the next week and it could then spread south to remaining areas.

[kev238]

Well the GFS shows the potential for 2 loads of snow over the next couple of days all within 54 hours. The first one the BBC are mentioning for a thin strip of Midlands- the 2nd load they are not so I assume that will not happen (it does look marginal on GFS but no more so than the snow for tomorrow)???

Infact if you believe the GFS first 96 hours we could be sleep walking into a very snowy period! It clearly is not going to happen like this I guess but it is showing on this model!

[mountain shadow]

It's getting closer and closer..

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100216/12/117/airpressure.png

[stratty]

It's getting closer and closer..

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100216/12/117/airpressure.png

what is!? lol

[MisfitDog3]

Well all marginal stuff for snow outside N Scotland still. Not quite sure what to make of the model output today. I don't like some of the low pressure system locations showing up and we have no real believable evolution as to how some of the daily projections have developed. Always a warning sign something ain't right. However, something is emerging in terms of a consensus but it's a bit like peering into the fog with just glimpses of something every now and then!

As for today, I'm personally quite glad this front is not causing a snow issue down here in the south as we have had some substantial rainfall totals now it's decided to get stuck and slide laterally. We'd be a foot and a half under by now....

[Cheese Rice]

Quite a snowy week coming up if the GFS is correct, plenty of snow around for the whole of the UK, hopefully it will all come of.

EDIT: Is that an easterly about to show up at T132!

Edited February 16, 2010 by 10123

[Tim Bland]

what is!? lol

SPRING!?

I think that was in refrence to the super cold air to the NE. If we can tap into that we could experience some very low temps regardless of it being nearly March. I think FI is the weekend at the moment, it's a very complex set up with lows and fronts over the UK so lots of variables. I hope the ECM continues with the cold outlook tonight, its now or never for a nationwide snow event before the spring arrives! Snow tonight / tommorow looks to be reserved for highest ground in the East mids maybee northern patrts of Chilterns.

[mountain shadow]

what is!? lol

Spring

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100216/12/132/h850t850eu.png

[karyo]

It's getting closer and closer..

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100216/12/117/airpressure.png

Yes, a much colder 12z so far. The general low pressure is placed further south and east. A wintry week and weekend coming up!

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes, a much colder 12z so far. The general low pressure is placed further south and east. A wintry week and weekend coming up!

Karyo

yep wintry weekend in the north still very marginal longterm looking rather middle ground never a good thing with low pressure to our sw.

[sandstorm2]

Some pretty low temps coming up for my neck of the woods especially overnight on the GFS1200, don't know or care about the snow potential, and ther doesn't look like any mild air in the reliable timeframe. it is still abit to early to be talking about spring after all it is only the middle of February.

SS2

[kold weather]

A drier looking 12z run bt also fairly cold, night time mins in such an airflow would be rather on the cold side, of course depending on the cloud cover. So a pretty cold run overall, nothing too severe but cold for the time of year, esp overnight if we can get clear skies.

Thursday looks interesting on the 12z as well but rather needs but the risk of that depends on the time of day it arrives at.

[nick sussex]

A very messy picture from both the GFS and the UKMO with shortwaves a plenty and these changing frequently between runs. There's still however the prospect for some snow, the UKMO develops a small feature at 48hrs which runs ne and this could provide some snow on the northern flank but again will this feature still show up on the next run?

Although the pattern is very consistent its a difficult forecast to get right because of these small hit and miss features.

Edited February 16, 2010 by nick sussex

[mountain shadow]

A very messy picture from both the GFS and the UKMO with shortwaves a plenty and these changing frequently between runs. There's still the prospect for some snow, the UKMO develops a small feature at 48hrs which runs ne and this could provide some snow on the northern flank but again will this feature still show up on the next run?

Although the pattern is very consistent its a difficult forecast to get right because of these small hit and miss features.

Indeed Nick, the outlook remains below average for all at the very worst with the chance of something more snowy for some. That Scandi cold pool remains just out of touching distance within the reliable though.

And for the third run in a row, the siberia express in FI, closer too

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100216/12/312/h850t850eu.png

Edited February 16, 2010 by mountain shadow

[MR EXTREMES]

both gfs and ukmo are stuck in middle ground just wobbling around the southern area or the uk towards the end of the run the low seems to stick around germany,

messy is the word id use with coldeast air futher north and after a few days or so turning pretty damp over much of the uk with snow risk falling.

after reading alot of the regional posts today its showing how marginal it all is,

becoming less wintry in the coming days even less so into fi.