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Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 24

LomondSnowstorm

By LomondSnowstorm
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Cheggers Accomplished

Cheggers

Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
Posted

What a cracking day it has been thus far, reached a balmy 2.5C and lots of lovely sunshine again. Back garden still white out back from the last few hard frosts we have had, just need some snow while the ground is so cold again (not that it ever warmed up mind).

I'm not sure what the record across Scotland is but the Paisley record (since 1959: via the Met-O) is 109.4 hours in 1970:

http://www.metoffice...paisleydata.txt

Must admit looking at those records, I don't see any marked increase in average temps at all, might have a look at other records before I get lambasted by the GW mob. :)

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted (edited)

post-1989-12666833031817_thumb.png

Rain anyone? Somehow I don't think so!

Edited by Blitzen
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Author
Posted

post-1989-12666833031817_thumb.png

Rain anyone? Somehow I don't think so!

Hilarious run really, looks like it was made just to make me look foolish! I know I said the low should be further north and a bit further west, but this far is just a bit absurd http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100220/12/96/h500slp.png Compared to the 6Z http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100220/06/102/h500slp.png

This makes the GFS look frankly stupid.

LS

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

I think we all know that there has to be a breakdown at some point. What the 12z is showing is far too progressive. I feel that there is too much cold air around Scotland at the moment. I don't know how anyone else's garden is, but mine is rock hard. You would need a pick axe to break it up! My daughter washed her car today and, even although the temp was above 2c, it had icicles hanging from the bottom of it! Let's wait and see what the ECM says. :doh:

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Guest

Posted
Posted

Must admit looking at those records, I don't see any marked increase in average temps at all, might have a look at other records before I get lambasted by the GW mob. :doh:

The best conclusion to draw from the Paisley records is that since they only go back to 1959 no firm conclusion can be reached.

The general trend since 1959 has been a large increase in the annual precipitation and an increase in average temperature; as a general rule the wetter it has become the warmer it has become, but where the causal effect lies I don't know. This winter is a good example of the link between temp and precip; cold and very dry.

Sadly enough I have done some number crunching on the Paisley data :doh: but the spreadsheets are on my desktop, not the laptop.

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StewieEatWorld Newbie

StewieEatWorld

Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, 133m asl
  • Location: Dunfermline, 133m asl
Posted

Ive got a question. Just say that these lows that are approaching take a track that is too far south including the wednesday one, will our cold air stay put? Or over time, as these lows are passing to the south, will the cold air eventually turn warmer?

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Guest

Posted
Posted

Ive got a question. Just say that these lows that are approaching take a track that is too far south including the wednesday one, will our cold air stay put? Or over time, as these lows are passing to the south, will the cold air eventually turn warmer?

In the short to medium term the lows staying south should keep us in cold air, although I would guess that over several weeks the air would warm more and more as we go further into spring.

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Northernlights Maestro

Northernlights

Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
Posted

Smashing late February day here today sunshine, blue skies, no wind, max of 0c after -7c first thing this morning, sparkling covering of snow, rock hard ground and snow showers scattered across the northern horizon. Very seasonal and just as I remember Februarys in the sixties and early seventies , only differnce being the cold and sunshine usually came about then as the result of high pressure If BFTP predictions for the jetstream being over us in the summer are correct we had better make the most of the sunshine just now as it could be pretty unsettled by then and another difficult hay season beckons.

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted (edited)

I suppose the 18z must be off on another one as it gives us up to T120 4 consecutive days of snow Monday thru' Thursday! When did we ever get that lucky! :good:

Make that six! :lol:

Edited by Blitzen
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Author
Posted

I suppose the 18z must be off on another one as it gives us up to T120 4 consecutive days of snow Monday thru' Thursday! When did we ever get that lucky! rolleyes.gif

Make that six! laugh.gif

18Z is just as likely as any output at the moment, though I agree it looks too good to be true with -9 uppers even flooding in with snow on Friday!

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

18Z is just as likely as any output at the moment, though I agree it looks too good to be true with -9 uppers even flooding in with snow on Friday!

Evening LS. You would think that surely, within/over the next week we can at least achieve one decent snowfall before it all ends. I'm really snow starved now. Was really jealous looking at the Thursday falls on TV. Last night here only gave about 1cm of ice crystals. Great to look at tho'.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Author
Posted

Evening LS. You would think that surely, within/over the next week we can at least achieve one decent snowfall before it all ends. I'm really snow starved now. Was really jealous looking at the Thursday falls on TV. Last night here only gave about 1cm of ice crystals. Great to look at tho'.

I'm sure we will Blitzen. The only way we can really avoid it is if the low moves too far north and west and quickly - anything else is either continually cold with a bout of very cold uppers drifting south or a snow event which would fall 99% as snow across Scotland and be potentially incredibly heavy with huge drifting.

LS

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Yeah you guys haven't got much to worry about IMO, because even if Wednesday ends up getting shifted I'm sure one LP will end giving the goods...

The 18z certainly is a great run for both S.Scotland and also N.England, its pretty clear that wherever is on the northern side of the front for any amount of time will get some big falls...

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Author
Posted

Incidentally, does anyone remember the exact date of the christmas/new year frontal snowfall of 2000? Because it suddenly came to me that I remembered it as we were stranded in Glasgow at the time and couldn't get out until 2pm the next day and I'd like to see what the setup was like for it.

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BlizzardConditions Rookie

BlizzardConditions

Posted
  • Location: Cambuslang, Glasgow
  • Location: Cambuslang, Glasgow
Posted (edited)

Incidentally, does anyone remember the exact date of the christmas/new year frontal snowfall of 2000? Because it suddenly came to me that I remembered it as we were stranded in Glasgow at the time and couldn't get out until 2pm the next day and I'd like to see what the setup was like for it.

I'm fairly certain it was overnight from 27th-28th December. Ahhhhh, now that was something! What I would give for something similar this week.

Edit: PS. Was it not a polar low?..I could easily be mistaken.

Edited by BlizzardConditions
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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Incidentally, does anyone remember the exact date of the christmas/new year frontal snowfall of 2000? Because it suddenly came to me that I remembered it as we were stranded in Glasgow at the time and couldn't get out until 2pm the next day and I'd like to see what the setup was like for it.

My grandson was born on the 27th (day after Boxing Day) and I think I remember everything being iced up when visiting. So I think it must have been just a few days before then. Can't be sure tho'

Peeped at the archives and if I am reading correctly, it doesn't look as if it was before the 27th, it looks more like either 28/29/30th?

Edited by Blitzen
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BlizzardConditions Rookie

BlizzardConditions

Posted
  • Location: Cambuslang, Glasgow
  • Location: Cambuslang, Glasgow
Posted

My grandson was born on the 27th (day after Boxing Day) and I think I remember everything being iced up when visiting. So I think it must have been just a few days before then. Can't be sure tho'

It was definitely after Christmas Day so may have been 26th-27th then? I'm positive it was either then or 27th-28th.

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blitzen Veteran

blitzen

Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
Posted

It was definitely after Christmas Day so may have been 26th-27th then? I'm positive it was either then or 27th-28th.

Yep, think you're right BC. It's hard to tell looking at the archives but it looks definitely after the 27th.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Author
Posted

I'm fairly certain it was overnight from 27th-28th December. Ahhhhh, now that was something! What I would give for something similar this week.

Edit: PS. Was it not a polar low?..I could easily be mistaken.

Possibly. Join the dots between these two charts! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2000/Rrea00120001227.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2000/Rrea00120001228.gif

That was some event though!! I just realised I remembered it but hadn't connected the dots when it was brought up once on this thread!

The position of the low and temperature of uppers aren't too disimilar but whether it would deliver on that scale I have no idea - entirely plausible though and as KW said if the first low doesn't get us the second and/or third will.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Author
Posted

It's a waiting game for us up here. We just have a (long) calm before the storm... smile.gif

Ideal scenario is pretty much the 18Z- Wednesday's low stalls, bringing heavy snow to south Scotland and moderate but probably still significant snow to central Scotland. This is the followed by the low moving east north east, bringing in a very cold and snowy northeasterly flow for Friday, followed by the next low taking a track that is maybe 50-75 miles further north so another all snow event but with it being major as far north as Montrose across to Argyll. Repeat the last sentence 5 times and hey-ho '47 looks like 01/02 for snowfallrofl.gif

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StewieEatWorld Newbie

StewieEatWorld

Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, 133m asl
  • Location: Dunfermline, 133m asl
Posted

Ideal scenario is pretty much the 18Z- Wednesday's low stalls, bringing heavy snow to south Scotland and moderate but probably still significant snow to central Scotland. This is the followed by the low moving east north east, bringing in a very cold and snowy northeasterly flow for Friday, followed by the next low taking a track that is maybe 50-75 miles further north so another all snow event but with it being major as far north as Montrose across to Argyll. Repeat the last sentence 5 times and hey-ho '47 looks like 01/02 for snowfallrofl.gif

Ive not seen the 18Z, but by the way its being described... it sounds like an epic upgrade! That pretty much sounds like the best plausible outcome for us up here. I wouldn't be a stupid man saying that we are almost guaranteed to seeing some significant snow by the end of the week, am I? :)

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Ive not seen the 18Z, but by the way its being described... it sounds like an epic upgrade! That pretty much sounds like the best plausible outcome for us up here. I wouldn't be a stupid man saying that we are almost guaranteed to seeing some significant snow by the end of the week, am I? biggrin.gif

I don't think you would be in any way unreasonable in saying that, but the way the models have been all over the place there are setups which I can't yet imagine and haven't been shown on the models yet (maybe the 12Z GFS) that do not give us either status quo/lots of snow which might be adopted overnight. I don't see it, I doubt many see it happening, but I don't think I could rule it out.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Scottish-Irish Skier Maestro

Scottish-Irish Skier

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

Ideal scenario is pretty much the 18Z- Wednesday's low stalls, bringing heavy snow to south Scotland and moderate but probably still significant snow to central Scotland. This is the followed by the low moving east north east, bringing in a very cold and snowy northeasterly flow for Friday, followed by the next low taking a track that is maybe 50-75 miles further north so another all snow event but with it being major as far north as Montrose across to Argyll. Repeat the last sentence 5 times and hey-ho '47 looks like 01/02 for snowfallrofl.gif

That's what I like to hear.

Was a bit dissapointed by the 1 cm last night, although it was nice to see everything white again.

You only have to watch the radar/news to see there is a lot of snow around, so no reason not to suppose that we will get hit at some point.

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