Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 24

[Gilly]

Iknow! Popped in for the overnights and saw immediately he/she/it was back with a full frontal attack on EITS. What IS that about? Going to have my breakfast now before I'm put off it!

Enjoy b/f Blitzen.

I dont know what there is about the MT it seems to bring the worst out of some people!! So sad because it can be so informative and I love reading and learning from it although I dont post on it.

[NorthernRab]

Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. The MT is having another squabble start!!!

Who is that girl and why is she being so annoying?

[blitzen]

Who is that girl and why is she being so annoying?

I believe some are questioning if he/she/it is a girl! Certainly likes to draw attention to herself/himself/itself.

[Gilly]

I believe some are questioning if he/she/it is a girl! Certainly likes to draw attention to herself/himself/itself.

Some people are Trolls..........they visit forums and start arguing with other posters.

[Hiya]

This morning when I was coming into Dundee from Fife it was snowing on the lead up to the bridge but cleared 1/4 of the way across and I was left with an excellent view of half the city under a heavy snow shower and the other half under nearly blue skies.

[Birkhill saints]

THAT MODEL THRED IS NOW A JOKE IF THERE WAS A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW DOWN THERE IT WOULD BE RED HOT JUST NOW, WENT THROUGH THE THREAD AND I AM NONE THE WISER ON WHAT IS GOING ON.

I find myself going over to two more and more often now as they seem to talk more sence overall(it used to be the other way round)

Thank god for this scottish thread and i hope it stays on during the summer.Anyway as norrance says just had a small snow shower and hope that cloud driffts a little more south today but thing looking ok for the rest of the week and onwards.

Have a nice day all and keep up the good banter on here.

[Guest]

Thanks for the Birthday Wishes everyone

Pete, don't be alarmed but I am going to intercept the train on its way south - there is no escape for you!

THAT MODEL THRED IS NOW A JOKE IF THERE WAS A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW DOWN THERE IT WOULD BE RED HOT JUST NOW, WENT THROUGH THE THREAD AND I AM NONE THE WISER ON WHAT IS GOING ON.

That's just one idiot, I'm sure it will clear up soon. My own personal suspicion is that the individual is a long-term member on here who has something against TEITS and is posing as something he is not to get back at TEITS. I could be wrong but I could also be right

Anyway.......06z rolling out, I will try to do an update and throw up a pile of charts once ToddlerCatch heads off for his morning snooze.

[Hairy Celt]

Happy birthday to all those who are getting older

Light snow here just now but barely settling at 1.5/0.5. Again, I eat my words from last night At this rate I can see more snow days later this week...

[Northernlights]

Confined to steading today feeding and bedding cattle as snowfall has now stepped up a gear with persistant large flakes. If it keeps up at this rate we will have a fair bit by the end of the day. Some word of strong easterly winds but more or less calm here just now. High winds would be the last thing we would need.

[blitzen]

Confined to steading today feeding and bedding cattle as snowfall has now stepped up a gear with persistant large flakes. If it keeps up at this rate we will have a fair bit by the end of the day. Some word of strong easterly winds but more or less calm here just now. High winds would be the last thing we would need.

I think, if the model discussion is correct NL, you may be in for more of the same! Unbelievable really and with talk of -40c taking hold in some parts of Scandanavia and Russia soon, it would suggest that perhaps this wonderful winter may have more than a sting in it's tail!

Edited February 16, 2010 by Blitzen

[Guest]

The fog seemed to have lifted again here but as soon as it seemed to have gone it came back with a shout of: "FOG!"

That's happened twice now and I think that the fog could well persist for much of the day

[blitzen]

The fog seemed to have lifted again here but as soon as it seemed to have gone it came back with a shout of: "FOG!"

That's happened twice now and I think that the fog could well persist for much of the day

Dare I say it Catch, but things appear to be looking up again on the model thread? Would love to hear an opinion from you?

[Guest]

Dare I say it Catch, but things appear to be looking up again on the model thread? Would love to hear an opinion from you?

I a saving charts at the moment!! Will get posting once I'm done. There is a real chance of a snow event for the west of central Scotland tomorrow, at least according to the GFS. It is, however, marginal at lower levels (to say the least!!).

[mountain shadow]

THAT MODEL THRED IS NOW A JOKE IF THERE WAS A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW DOWN THERE IT WOULD BE RED HOT JUST NOW, WENT THROUGH THE THREAD AND I AM NONE THE WISER ON WHAT IS GOING ON.

I wouldn't say it was a joke as much as that if their is little chance of snow for SE England the model thread dies a death. I think its mainly because some of the main knowledgable posters live in the SE and couldn't give a monkeys if it was snowing in Banff or Belfast.

Won't belong before an independent scottish weather site is started if the IMBYism carries on.

Still looking good for parts of the old country for the forseeable with a small chance i might catch some white stuff as well. My mither in Dundee said they had a snow shower earlier.

[Guest]

Here goes for stage 1 of the chartorama.

The GFS has shown this "feature" on and off for a couple of days now. Here is the GFS precip chart for tomorrow at 12pm:

And the precip/850 temps chart from NW Extra:

Which is where the interest starts. As you can see the 850 temps are low enough to suggest the chance of snow. However, the freezing level is high, dewpoints are marginal, 850-1000 thickness does not appear to be below 1290 and 925hpa temps aren't too bad, but still marginal (charts in order of mention :lol:):

So, according to the GFS snow is more than possible for central western Scotland tomorrow, but marginal at lower levels.

NMM also goes for some precip at this time:

But the NAE says "Nae, tae snae!!" (or any precip for that matter):

I just wonder why the GFS has picked up on this and not the NAE. Does that suggest the GFS is wrong?? Only time will tell.

Edited February 16, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Guest]

Part two. What's the outlook for later in the week??

Not much to say here as the charts say it all really, staying on the cool side and certainly no mild rubbish in sight this side of next week

To my mind there is quite a lot of similarity across the models at +120hrs/+132hrs (from slightly different start points). So in order ECM, GEM, UKMO and GME:

To cut a long post short, staying on the cold side with the chance of snow!! 850 temps to follow in order, ECM, GEM, GFS and GME:

Nothing brutally cold, just good cold unsettled weather :lol:

Pick of the charts for down south is a cracking snow event for Wales/N.England:

[blitzen]

Absolutely cracking post Catch. I think potential sums it up really and we can't ask for more than that. I would say that GFS however seems to be improving with each run but ever so slooooooooowly! Clouding over here now with temp at 1.8c and dew point 1.4c with a S wind.

[Guest]

Just as an aside, these two charts show the difficulties faced forecasting snow this week. Both are for Friday at 12pm but as you can see they are from successive runs, so that one is +84hrs (from Tues 00z) and one is +96hrs (from Mon 12z):

The overall pattern has not changed but the detail is different, from trough to front and so on.

Edited February 16, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[blitzen]

Just as an aside, these two charts show the difficulties faced forecasting snow this week. Both are for Friday at 12pm but as you can see they are from successive runs, so that one is +84hrs (from Tues 00z) and one is +96hrs (from Mon 12z):

The overall pattern has not changed but the detail is different, from trough to front and so on.

The first chart. Does that show an occluded front? I thought LS said something about not getting snow from that?

Probably me not being able to read them properly.

[Guest]

The first chart. Does that show an occluded front? I thought LS said something about not getting snow from that?

Probably me not being able to read them properly.

You are reading the charts fine

You can get snow from that type of front; up to two or three inches quite easily. Our deepest snow here last winter came from an occlusion.

Edit: Isn't the NE's snow today coming from an occlusion??

Like this:

One last sensible post from me today, after this it's all going to be spam :lol:

GFS ensembles also support the colder weather staying until at least next week. This one especially for the Fifers, with my red line added showing how far ahead the cold is nailded on:

Edited February 16, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[kold weather]

How is the snowfall situations then today guys?

Radar shows a decent area has moved through central Northern Scotland recently whilst another batch has come into the Aberdeen region. Some uncertainty about what happens after this batch with the NAE focusing the main fun increasingly further north...

[Northernlights]

Had about an inch or so of dry snow this morning and then it stopped got brighter and a fraction warmer at 1c with light sleet. Has started wet snow again in the last 15 minutes, a moderate east wind and sky is very dark again with the temperature falling back to 0c.

[Guest]

It would appear to be raining here

[Hairy Celt]

Started as snow, been rain (drizzle and slizzle really) for the last couple of hours. I'm at sea level by the sea though, and inland and any elevation is still just about snow. Might get better later according to GFS but who knows? Certainly not nailded!

Edited February 16, 2010 by Hairy Celt

[Methuselah]

Sleet on the now...