Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[andymusic]

GFS 12z is digging the cold in further and colder - seems like we defo have another good cold spell coming our way this time and some possible battleground situations that could really deliver again that wonderful snow in large quantities! - another opportunity is making itself known on the GFS friday night into saturday morning - we've had some wintry precip today but there could be alot more coming in the next two to three weeks - winter is not over!

[keithlucky]

More data to add to the log.

I need more temperatures and dew points please.

The log will be printed at the end of winter.

Outlook more wintry wednesday sleet and snow moving back westwards wednesday with colder air moving westwards,sunday as a front tries to move north encountering colder air could be very interesting,A period of wet snow , hopefully sleet snow starting after midnight allowing lower temps and a increase chance of settling snow.

[Cymro]

It snowed here this morning but not much a glorious evening now.

[andymusic]

Clearish skies tonight will give us a nice heavy frost - to prepare the ground for snow to stick!

[Jamie.]

snow above 200m around here.

The hills/mountains have a fine covering, just wet where I am :l.

And the precipitation Tomorrow may not happen,

I just looked on BBC and they had the band coming back but turning over Midlands area and not even coming into Wales.

Edited February 16, 2010 by Jamie.ed

[andymusic]

snow above 200m around here.

The hills/mountains have a fine covering, just wet where I am :l.

And the precipitation Tomorrow may not happen,

I just looked on BBC and they had the band coming back but turning over Midlands area and not even coming into Wales.

we'll see - gonna be nowcasting and you've got a better chance than most mate situated on the most eastern tip of Wales

Edited February 16, 2010 by andymusic

[J10]

Some heavy sleet at sea level lunchtime, with some heavy snow here. Far too wet to settle though.

[loadsa]

Ian ferguson just posted this on the South West site

I've checked our latest NAE snow prog / areal spread for tonight and the essential thrust for our region is East Glos down into parts of north Wilts and B&NES; essentially 1-2cm fairly widely signalled in these areas with spot 4cm totals in NE Glos.

However, to reiterate the views of the UKMO Chief Forecaster this evening:

"Timings of onset of snow remain highly dependent on precip rates, and eventual position of frontal zone is also in question. However, this is not expected to be a repeat of the type of snow events earlier this winter, with onset time and pre-existing conditions likely to generally limit the extent to which problems develop on road network."

So hopefully nothing too bad / dramatic from this one...

Somebody needs to email Derek with the link to this site. If Ian can do it across the water why cant Derek

[joo]

Well I've just watched both sets of local weather and the ITV guy said rain for Thursday, while Derek said snowy showers.

All of his locations on his map started with the letter Y tonight.

[andymusic]

Ian ferguson just posted this on the South West site

I've checked our latest NAE snow prog / areal spread for tonight and the essential thrust for our region is East Glos down into parts of north Wilts and B&NES; essentially 1-2cm fairly widely signalled in these areas with spot 4cm totals in NE Glos.

However, to reiterate the views of the UKMO Chief Forecaster this evening:

"Timings of onset of snow remain highly dependent on precip rates, and eventual position of frontal zone is also in question. However, this is not expected to be a repeat of the type of snow events earlier this winter, with onset time and pre-existing conditions likely to generally limit the extent to which problems develop on road network."

So hopefully nothing too bad / dramatic from this one...

Somebody needs to email Derek with the link to this site. If Ian can do it across the water why cant Derek

Derek does have a blog as well

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/walesnature/derek_brockway/

Well I've just watched both sets of local weather and the ITV guy said rain for Thursday, while Derek said snowy showers.

All of his locations on his map started with the letter Y tonight.

I think the ITV guy isn't right - -5 uppers - cold upper air will be with us for most of the rest of this week - delivering sleet/hail and snow in any showers/frontal lows etc

[keithlucky]

Some decent showers heading up channel could see some snow later.

[andymusic]

Some decent showers heading up channel could see some snow later.

What channel? sorry Kieth - the next snow opps will be from the front that crossed us last night and will be coming back towards Wales tomorrow - at the moment though it is not progged to make it as far as Wales - eastern Wales that is - but the meto and beeb forecasters are not 100% sure where it'll end up so it'll be a nowcasting radar watching event for tomorrow

All the showers you see right now are tied in with that front and aren't coming into Wales

[keithlucky]

What channel? sorry Kieth - the next snow opps will be from the front that crossed us last night and will be coming back towards Wales tomorrow - at the moment though it is not progged to make it as far as Wales - eastern Wales that is - but the meto and beeb forecasters are not 100% sure where it'll end up so it'll be a nowcasting radar watching event for tomorrow

All the showers you see right now are tied in with that front and aren't coming into Wales

A cuople of beefy showers over northcornwall heading north east

[andymusic]

A cuople of beefy showers over northcornwall heading north east

What showers Keith? which radar are you looking at - I've got rain today and the meto and can't see anything over north cornwall right now - I can see a few showers down towards Penzance that are tied in with the front that are twisting into a Wales sort of direction but are moving dead slowly and I'm not really sure what they'll do - but nothing over north cornwall!

well the 18z GFS wants to bring this stalling front more into Wales tomorrow morning - could be a very interesting day for eastern Wales tomorrow

And thursday morning a front passing just below Wales but skirting south wales (if it comes 50 miles further north which ain't much in weather terms) then we'll have another direct hit of snow in this cold air!

[andymusic]

Snowfest over night saturday into sunday - just outside the reliable timeframe but a snowfest for ALL OF WALES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cymro]

Snowfest over night saturday into sunday - just outside the reliable timeframe but a snowfest for ALL OF WALES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Things will change by then stop ramping:P

[andymusic]

GFS extends the cold uppers another day to wednesday next week

[joo]

Met Office have given an advisory for snow for Wales tomorrow.

[ourson]

Snowfest over night saturday into sunday - just outside the reliable timeframe but a snowfest for ALL OF WALES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Andy mate. Where are you geting your info from? It looks fairly boring for Cardiff over the next few days.

Andy, met, O le ti'n cael yr info yma? Edrych yn ddiflas yng nghaerdydd yn ystod y dyddiau nesaf.

[andymusic]

Things will change by then stop ramping:P

not ramping - just reading the charts!

saying what I see

If there were storms about I'd talk about those - if it were getting milder and warmer then I'd talk about that too - Just saying it as I see it

Andy mate. Where are you geting your info from? It looks fairly boring for Cardiff over the next few days.

Andy, met, O le ti'n cael yr info yma? Edrych yn ddiflas yng nghaerdydd yn ystod y dyddiau nesaf.

Wednesday

Thursday

saturday night into sunday

[Marcus_surfer]

I find those charts very inaccurate. I would only imagine snow falling above about 800feet by the weekend

[andymusic]

Jay wynne on the beeb news just confirmed the snow for tomorrow and thursday for wales!

I find those charts very inaccurate. I would only imagine snow falling above about 800feet by the weekend

It's getting colder by the weekend

[joo]

What kind of snow are we expecting (obviously only the snow gods know really)?

Heavy so everyone panics at lunchtime and rush home, but it clears before home time?

Park your car at the bottom of the hill as you'll never get it up there?

Constant but not sticking?

Snowmaggedon?

[andymusic]

What kind of snow are we expecting (obviously only the snow gods know really)?

Heavy so everyone panics at lunchtime and rush home, but it clears before home time?

Park your car at the bottom of the hill as you'll never get it up there?

Constant but not sticking?

Snowmaggedon?

advisory from the meto for tomorrow

Wales: Blaenau Gwent Caerphilly Merthyr Tydfil Monmouthshire Powys Rhondda Cynon Taff Torfaen WrexhamHeavy SnowWed 17 FebThere is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of central England and eastern Wales on Wednesday. Sleet and snow is expected to spread northwards to give accumulations of up to 6 cm in places - especially on ground above 100 metres. Becoming dry from the south later.

Issued at: 2210 Tue 16 Feb

not necessarily gonna be disruptive - but it will snow - you can't always have mega disruptive snow events - if you want those your living in the wrong country

Edited February 16, 2010 by andymusic

[Marcus_surfer]

What kind of snow are we expecting (obviously only the snow gods know really)?

Heavy so everyone panics at lunchtime and rush home, but it clears before home time?

Park your car at the bottom of the hill as you'll never get it up there?

Constant but not sticking?

Snowmaggedon?

No snowmaggedon, maybe marginal snow and again by the weekend, i think the charts will change for the milder in the next few days again

Edited February 16, 2010 by Marcus_surfer