Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Jamie.]

GFS 12z is showing snow showers - but all could change as it has been doing with this current set up - currently only look about two days ahead for accurate forecasting - anything after that could happen but is subject to change

yeh I know haha. It's still a nice bit of hope and a drastic change from their earlier forecast of sunny and 6C - which shows how quickly it could all change again .

[TonyH]

Your positive and refreshing attitude has made it a pleasure to take part in this forum.

If it was not for your posts and one or two others on here this forum would be incredibly dull ,with nothing but boring technical jargon that most dont really understand.

Sorry most of us are so incredibly dull and boring to you then!

I am sure 99% of contributors to NW have a genuine interest/ love of weather and wish to inform other people.

There are naturally all different levels of knowledge and interest on the forums, and I feel that is a good thing. Don't think it terribly kind of you to put down 99% of contributors on here- that is most disparaging.

Brief moderate snow shower this morning after a hard frost, minimum -5.7c.

Apologies if that's too much technical jargon and data for you- I have been keeping weather records for almost 40 years, sorry if you find that so dull...it is a weather forum I thought it might be relevant and interesting.

[Elnonio]

Sorry most of us are so incredibly dull and boring to you then!

I am sure 99% of contributors to NW have a genuine interest/ love of weather and wish to inform other people.

There are naturally all different levels of knowledge and interest on the forums, and I feel that is a good thing. Don't think it terribly kind of you to put down 99% of contributors on here- that is most disparaging.

Brief moderate snow shower this morning after a hard frost, minimum -5.7c.

Apologies if that's too much technical jargon and data for you- I have been keeping weather records for almost 40 years, sorry if you find that so dull...it is a weather forum I thought it might be relevant and interesting.

Boys, boys put your handbags down! I think what pascals was trying to say is that this is a much more relaxed forum than some of the others which cannot be named! All the talk of LP, HP, FI, UKMO, GFS 12Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz - does tend to leave you a little bit lightheaded particularly when it does not actually transpire!!! Actual data is good, it gives us a picture of what's happening around Wales and what might come. That's my opinion anyway

E x

[loadsa]

I much prefer it on here with everyones varied contributions from Jay will it snow to Jackone and the tech stuff. Much better than the se model thread which I said on there only to get my post deleted. Roll on the Wales Cymru cold spell discussion. Dont see why we cant have the Wales Cymru warm spell discussion either.

[TonyH]

Boys, boys put your handbags down! I think what pascals was trying to say is that this is a much more relaxed forum than some of the others which cannot be named! All the talk of LP, HP, FI, UKMO, GFS 12Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz - does tend to leave you a little bit lightheaded particularly when it does not actually transpire!!! Actual data is good, it gives us a picture of what's happening around Wales and what might come. That's my opinion anyway

E x

Sure, but you dont need to put down people to say that! Just defending what I feel are valuable contributors here as surprised noone else has done so before, he's been winding up to this all week sarcastically going on about 'data this data that'! Sorry, cant stand it when people are rude and condescending like this.

[Cymro]

Sure, but you dont need to put down people to say that! Just defending what I feel are valuable contributors here as surprised noone else has done so before, he's been winding up to this all week sarcastically going on about 'data this data that'! Sorry, cant stand it when people are rude and condescending like this.

Bois bach ble mae'r hwyl heno, Gwenwch mae'n ddydd Mercher , Children where's the fun tonight? Smile its a Wednesday :lol:.

I wouldn't be suprised if the front is forecast to east by the met atm And this isn't a biased forecast i've seen this before only for it to either be drastically West or not make much inroads at all and peter out.

[matty lfc]

Sorry most of us are so incredibly dull and boring to you then!

I am sure 99% of contributors to NW have a genuine interest/ love of weather and wish to inform other people.

There are naturally all different levels of knowledge and interest on the forums, and I feel that is a good thing. Don't think it terribly kind of you to put down 99% of contributors on here- that is most disparaging.

Brief moderate snow shower this morning after a hard frost, minimum -5.7c.

Apologies if that's too much technical jargon and data for you- I have been keeping weather records for almost 40 years, sorry if you find that so dull...it is a weather forum I thought it might be relevant and interesting.

Chill out,lad.

Andy's enthusiasm brims over with every post and are typed in simple terms with reference to various charts if needed and im sure that's what was meant in the post you are referring to with regard to some posts being a tad overly technical for people that are learning about how the weather works.

[TonyH]

Chill out,lad.

Andy's enthusiasm brims over with every post and are typed in simple terms with reference to various charts if needed and im sure that's what was meant in the post you are referring to with regard to some posts being a tad overly technical for people that are learning about how the weather works.

I am chilled thanks! I was not on about Andy actually.

So 'If it was not for your posts and one or two others' means 'some posts' fair enough. Apologies for pointing it out wish I had not bothered.

[Cymro]

I am chilled thanks! I was not on about Andy actually.

So 'If it was not for your posts and one or two others' means 'some posts' fair enough. Apologies for pointing it out wish I had not bothered.

Nefoedd seriously lighten up mate :lol:

[Elnonio]

Sure, but you dont need to put down people to say that! Just defending what I feel are valuable contributors here as surprised noone else has done so before, he's been winding up to this all week sarcastically going on about 'data this data that'! Sorry, cant stand it when people are rude and condescending like this.

Dydd Mercher hapus i bawb, Happy Wednesday to all!!

I expect that pascals tongue is very firmly in his cheek and he is not having a go at anybody apart from pompous 'know it alls' that appear on some forums (or should that be fori?!!). Nevertheless - snow tommorrow?! I would be very surprised in Cardiff and up the valley where I work - it really doesn't seem cold enough, even though the car seemed to be stuck on 4 degrees all day and the wind was chilly. Haven't had to scape the car windscreen for days ( I think?!! In our house scraping the car constitutes as a blue job, along with taking out the bins and doing random stuff with power tools).

E x

[grab my graupel]

Pleasing to see that everyone is getting along so nicely in here :lol:

[matty lfc]

Saw a light covering from this mornings snow but nothing settled on the roads.Expect something similar tomorrow as temps are still a tad too high,in my opinion.

"battleground" snow tends to be the wet,big flake precip and disruptive accumulations are normally very brief affairs.

[Marcus_surfer]

Pleasing to see that everyone is getting along so nicely in here :o

[Elnonio]

Is that the best you can do Marcus - very poor show I must say.

Only joking!!!

Edited February 17, 2010 by Elnonio

[Cymro]

Haha pawb yn y ty i weiddi EIRA

Everybody in the house shout EIRA/SNOW

sorry childishness out the way I feel rather optimistic for Wales tomorrow and for the front to be a lot further west than fought

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Well looking at the latest NAE and GFS 18z it is looking more likely that the weather front (Occluded front) will effect S & SE Wales

NAE:

http://expert.weathe...021818_1718.gif

http://expert.weathe...021900_1718.gif

As you can see the weather front has come into Wales with snow to parts of the S, SE of Wales away from the coast.

Heres the Dewpoints:

http://expert.weathe...021818_1718.gif

http://expert.weathe...021900_1718.gif

They are around -1C - OC so it appears they would support snowfall.

Temperatures:

http://expert.weathe...021900_1718.gif

Better in the East of Wales really around 0c with slightly higher temps further West (around 2c)

Higher areas of South Wales should see snow if its true that the front will come this far north, better in SE Wales where it seems to be slightly colder especially when the low starts to head off and even colder upper air temps start to come down so backedge snow to lower levels possible.

[andymusic]

Saw a light covering from this mornings snow but nothing settled on the roads.Expect something similar tomorrow as temps are still a tad too high,in my opinion.

"battleground" snow tends to be the wet,big flake precip and disruptive accumulations are normally very brief affairs.

the -5 upper air will dig in further tomorrow so aiding the easier formation of snow - as the BBC forecasts have shown this evening Wales will be the first to get a taste of this low's snow (south west england getting rain) and then after it snowing for most of the day it will move off towards the north east.

[keithlucky]

yeh I know haha. It's still a nice bit of hope and a drastic change from their earlier forecast of sunny and 6C - which shows how quickly it could all change again .

Latest forecaste 9am wont reach swansea cardiff still in firing line.

[J10]

Well looking at the latest NAE and GFS 18z it is looking more likely that the weather front (Occluded front) will effect S & SE Wales

NAE:

http://expert.weathe...021818_1718.gif

http://expert.weathe...021900_1718.gif

As you can see the weather front has come into Wales with snow to parts of the S, SE of Wales away from the coast.

Heres the Dewpoints:

http://expert.weathe...021818_1718.gif

http://expert.weathe...021900_1718.gif

They are around -1C - OC so it appears they would support snowfall.

Temperatures:

http://expert.weathe...021900_1718.gif

Better in the East of Wales really around 0c with slightly higher temps further West (around 2c)

Higher areas of South Wales should see snow if its true that the front will come this far north, better in SE Wales where it seems to be slightly colder especially when the low starts to head off and even colder upper air temps start to come down so backedge snow to lower levels possible.

The NAE and the GFS are a major upgrade for tomorrow in terms of precipitation amounts. Both have the heavier precipiation further west.

With the 12Hz run first. A lot of similarities to the snow events last winter, and also that event in Febraury 2007. There could be a lot of snow in places, and not just to high ground.

Latest forecaste 9am wont reach swansea cardiff still in firing line.

Latest NAE and GFS charts have precipitation hitting as far west as Swansea.

If we miss out tomorrow, with the NW winds, some wintry/snow showers are likely overnight over following days.

[Nights King]

I think south wales has a very good chance of snow to low levels! Local forecast still seems confident for the west country to see anything from 2-10cm somerset/bristol/glouc so I think you could have some fun and games in your region.

[Stevetynant]

Sounds like they're starting to get a bit excited about the weekend prospects over on the model output thread - would be a great way to sign out this winter aswel.

"Absolute snow fest of a run the 18z which would bring wintry conditions just about everywhere with heavy snow showers across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England with an area of snow tracking across Wales, The Midlands, East Anglia through Saturday and another

snow storm Sunday Night/Monday across the South East followed by a North Westerly dragging heavy snow showers into the Midlands via Cheshire Gap."

[andymusic]

GFS18z - so the cold/freezing weather continues - as we move towards the weekend a chance for more snow (on top of tomorrows offerings) early saturday morning for ALL OF WALES THIS TIME coming in from the west - then over night temps plumet to -5 and -6 and below for quite a few nights!!!!!!!!!!! with day time temps around 0 to 1 also up until at least next tuesday - get your woolies back out of the cupboards!

[Cymro]

I've a feeling it will come further west again its nothing scientific just a hunge on past events whether im right i dont know but I can see it getting to Carmarthen.

[keithlucky]

If we do see precipatation cant see any more than wet snow,a bit dissapointed with temps tonight dont seem low enough to have snow, also the timing of the precipation is not helpful around 10am with tempretures climbing.On a positive note heavy wintery showers follow that could give good covering especially friday night saturday night.

GFS18z - so the cold/freezing weather continues - as we move towards the weekend a chance for more snow (on top of tomorrows offerings) early saturday morning for ALL OF WALES THIS TIME coming in from the west - then over night temps plumet to -5 and -6 and below for quite a few nights!!!!!!!!!!! with day time temps around 0 to 1 also up until at least next tuesday - get your woolies back out of the cupboards!

O to one a bit ott 4 to 5 nearer to the mark daytime temps.

[andymusic]

If we do see precipatation cant see any more than wet snow,a bit dissapointed with temps tonight dont seem low enough to have snow, also the timing of the precipation is not helpful around 10am with tempretures climbing.On a positive note heavy wintery showers follow that could give good covering especially friday night saturday night.

O to one a bit ott 4 to 5 nearer to the mark daytime temps.

Saturday night

Sunday in the day

Monday in the day