Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelane

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 91S has developed into Tropical Cyclone Gelane, with intensity at 45kts. Gelane is well organised, with deep convective banding wraping into the LLC and a central dense overcast feature beginning to take shape. Gelane is in an environment of low shear, warm sea temps and excellent outflow, particularly in a poleward direction. This should help Gelane intensify quite quickly over the next couple days as the cyclone heads southwards along the western periphery of a southward extension of the equatorward steering ridge. This motion will take Gelane extremley close to the islands of St Brandon, where some destructive winds and rain could occur.

[kold weather]

Yep this one came rather out the blue to me because I've been quite busy with the upcoming snow chances but it does look rather well developed, convection is nice and strong over the system with as you say SS obvious banding present as is a proto CDO still in the process of developing over the center with also good signs of an eyewall present as well on the microwave imagery. Outflow is impressive, esp as you say for the poleward directions and clearly good inflow coming into the system as well.

As mentioned by SS track could well come very close to St.Brandon, the ECM for example on its latest 12z run has what looks very much like a direct hit in about 3-4 days time. By this time Gelane will probably be quite a strong system though there are some uncertainties about whether some shear maybe induced past 72hrs, it'll be something to keep an eye on. Still if shear stays relaxed then we could well have a fairly potent system on our hands soon, because it is organising quite readily at the moment and clearly undergoing fairly quick strengthening with the structure it has. So well worth watching to see what this one does.

[Somerset Squall]

Gelane has rapidly intensified and is now an 80kt, cat 1 cyclone on the SS scale. Gelane is still moving southwards towards St Brandon, and at the point of landfall or direct impact, Gelane could well be a 100kt+ system, so it needs to be closely watched.

[kold weather]

Yep it really did strengthen overnight, not all that surprising it did so given the very impressive structure it was showing last night with the CDO and banding the way it was. Microwave shows a decent inner core though the eyewall is open on the northern side and the IR doesn't show quite as strong convection either and thus if anything it has weakened in the last few hours. Possibly may have had a bit of mid level shear though its rather hard to tell without spending more time studying it, and sadly this winter still hasn't quite let go of me just yet!

Still I don't think this will be a long term issue as heat content is very good at the moment in this region and the atmospheric conditions seem pretty good as wlel at the moment so I'd imagine we will see some strengthening resume tonight but we shall see!

[Somerset Squall]

Gelane is a very small, but intense system. Gelane has strengthened to 100kts, which makes her a cat 3. Gelane has a very small eye embedded in a tiny central dense overcast. The strongest winds don't extend far from the centre so St. Brandon looks like it'll be spared the worst as Gelane should pass to the east. Gelane has a little while longer to intensify, and cat 4 cannot be ruled out before waters begin to cool on the south then southwesterly heading as ridging digs in to the southeast of the cyclone. This could bring about some rapid weakening as Gelane is so small. Similarly, a last spurt of rapid intensification in the currently favourable conditions cannot be ruled out either for the same reason. We shall see.

[Somerset Squall]

Gelane has intensified further, and is now a 125kt, cat 4. Gelane has been upgraded to a "intense tropical cyclone" by MeteoFrance. Gelane remains a compact system which has developed the dreaded pinhole eye- which is currently cloud obscured but clearly denotes an intense system. Gelane could intensify a little more in the next 12hrs before the cyclone moves over cooler waters inducing weakening. However, the upper level environment looks set to remain modestly favourable over the next few days so weakening could be slow.

[kold weather]

Yep very impressive system indeed, the inner core is indeed rather on the small side which has allowed it to ramp up quite quickly in what has been a very good condusive environment.

It does look decent enough, microwave imagery shows the eye also being clouded over so we may have a EWRC occuring, however its very tough to call without looking at more data, which sadly I just don't have time to do!

[Somerset Squall]

Gelane has suffered from moderate northerly shear, but more importantly, colder sea temps which has caused weakening over the last 24hrs. Convection is still quite deep over Gelane's centre, but the eye has gone, and intensity has been reduced to 60kts. Furter steady weakning is expected and and Gelane could dissipate within 48hrs. As Gelane becomes a shallower system, it will be steered by low level easterlies which will slowly bend the southward track into a westward one.

[Cookie]

typical we get a monster when im on holiday

thanks for the updates guys

[Somerset Squall]

It's always the same mate, lol. And now you're back, Gelane has dissipated . Increased shear and cooler waters has completely detached all convection from the weakening LLC. Regeneration is not likely.

[Cookie]

I lost net connection during hurricane IKE.

och well back to work tomorrow,

[Somerset Squall]

I lost net connection during hurricane IKE.

och well back to work tomorrow,

I lost connection during Typhoon Mirinae too, it was like I was missing a limb, lol

Always hard to motivate yourself to go back to work after a hoilday isn't it.

[Cookie]

yup it sure is.

its hard to get motivated at all about the weather at the moment aswell, which is strange for me!

[kold weather]

I lost connection during Typhoon Mirinae too, it was like I was missing a limb, lol

Always hard to motivate yourself to go back to work after a hoilday isn't it.

I remember going to work with Hurricane Wilma at 60kts and 990mbs, came back from work seeing it a 892mbs cat-5, I couldn't quite believe it I have to honest, the world rather stopped at that moment, and then came in 884mbs before the advisory suggested it could have been lower still, no doubts in my mind that was a sub 880s hurricane briefly...

[Somerset Squall]

yup it sure is.

its hard to get motivated at all about the weather at the moment aswell, which is strange for me!

Perhaps it's because of all the snow you've had. I'm sick to death of the cold to be honest. All the more reason to focus on the tropics, lol.

I remember going to work with Hurricane Wilma at 60kts and 990mbs, came back from work seeing it a 892mbs cat-5, I couldn't quite believe it I have to honest, the world rather stopped at that moment, and then came in 884mbs before the advisory suggested it could have been lower still, no doubts in my mind that was a sub 880s hurricane briefly...

Yup, will never forget Wilma, what an amazing storm. Cyclone Monica of 2006 was another beauty too, was a good watch that one:

[Cookie]

Perhaps it's because of all the snow you've had. I'm sick to death of the cold to be honest. All the more reason to focus on the tropics, lol.

Yup, will never forget Wilma, what an amazing storm. Cyclone Monica of 2006 was another beauty too, was a good watch that one:

stunning image mate.

and yup sick to the back teeth of the cold really am.

[Tattooed Fox]

hi Guys,

What is the take on the tropical storm that could hit us on Sunday or scoot past us into France?

[Cookie]

hi Guys,

What is the take on the tropical storm that could hit us on Sunday or scoot past us into France?

which one?

[Somerset Squall]

The storm isn't tropical Sonnia, but the best place to look for your answer is in the Winter section of the forum. Hope that helps

[Tattooed Fox]

Hi SS,

I read Ian Fergusson's updated blog on this one today and it is a Midlatitude Cyclone, which apparently as he says is going to travel up the English Channel to us over the weekend. Have read if you have not heard about this storm.