Model Chat And Moods

[Altostratus]

Some of you are talking absolute nonsense tonight. All models are showing potential for a cold to very cold spell – this is pretty much a certainty now. This run is just another variation on this theme. There is good reason to be optimistic. Why all the negative posts, I’m not sure. It is a developing situation as per normal. There is high confidence for the cold air backing up into the UK. This is all we need for now - what happens after this, is open to debate. The first hurdle is cleared however. This has often been the achilles heel in recent years. With good foundations, the final piece of the jigsaw will likely fall in place.

[snow raven]

I think we're quite a long way from the Atlantic crashing in for Monday on this run to be honest, though we are indeed just margins away from seeing a cold high settle over the British Isles giving cold bright weather and no snow.

I would welcome the above. Anything has to be better than the grey, dreary drizzle I've experienced for the past few weeks.

Model discussion does make me laugh sometimes though - I have never, ever come across such mood swings in the space of hours!! Thank goodness I have a few years of experience behind me to know who are valid posters and those to take with a pinch of salt. I pity any new member reading this thread right now.

[Bristawl Si]

thank you-one of the few constructive and realistic posts in there this evening.

I have to say, shoot me down, call me names, but the model thread is getting to be very very poor in its posting quality. Just how any newcomers wanting to learn are expected too with the vast majority of posts in there is beyond me.

Any newcomer wanting to find out just what is likely to happen

pm any member of the team we will be happy to help

use the Met O Fax charts as the most realistic as to what will happen in that time frame.

Have to agree.

I'm in the 'older' category of NW members. I do not have the wealth of knowledge of many on here like TEITS, GP, Steve Muir, Nick Sussex, Nick F, John Holmes, plus a few more

on here, but i value their insights.

However, i'm fed up with some of the useless posts that add no value to the discussion. So stop bickering, stop posting charts with no added insight or views (as we can view them in isolation anyway) and people, stop clinging to every GFS run (it's the only run with updates every 6 hours i think) - things will evolve in next few days.

Rant over!

[Skyhi]

I would welcome the above. Anything has to be better than the grey, dreary drizzle I've experienced for the past few weeks.

Model discussion does make me laugh sometimes though - I have never, ever come across such mood swings in the space of hours!! Thank goodness I have a few years of experience behind me to know who are valid posters and those to take with a pinch of salt. I pity any new member reading this thread right now.

I am one of the newcomers and I find it difficult enough to try and get an even basic understanding of the weather, so i would have to agree...no offence to anyone tho.!

[derrylynne]

There is no doubt to me the cold is going to return - and it will be quite prolonged. Although the question has to be how cold it is going to be. The intense cold we had over Europe has largely gone and Russia is a lot milder than of late. So in my opinion this spell will be warmer - than the last one. However, the north sea is now very cold. Only 5C in the southern part - so there will be little warming. The models agree and solar conditions have been warning of a cold February for some time. As has been said don't worry about snow - you have to get the cold first. When that is in place snow will happen but details can wait until the cold is in place. Lot's of negatives in here tonight. More mood swings than most woman. lol....The weather is the weather guys. But this time around the cold will win...

[dallas]

Well there were originally two shortwaves that we needed to worry about, the first one thankfully looks fine, this is the trigger shortwave that clears se'wards into France and allows the ridge to build south, the second shortwave is modelled to move south from Scandi, around 96 hrs, this is important as it allows the colder air to be advected sw'wards from that region, often in the past shortwaves have caused all manner of problems for the models and us!

The general model guidance is for this to slip towards the se of England, after this the ridge to the north extends south, its important that this shortwave clears the se and heads into the Continent. So overall then definitely yes to the first sw, and a very good chance for the second, however I'm being cautious about the second sw because I'd like to see this within T-72hrs to be certain about it.

In terms of cold theres a very good chance but with easterly set ups its always best to get within T-72hrs to be really sure, not all cold set ups require us to be this cautious but given the last week especially I think we just need to get to tomorrows runs and we'll be okay.

Cheers Nick,

Informative and easy to understand, indeed the first shortwave does seemed to have become less of a concern, and now I know where to look for the second. Is the first one's movement known as undercutting?

Sorry to bombard with Q's

[Mac_SE]

thank you-one of the few constructive and realistic posts in there this evening.

I have to say, shoot me down, call me names, but the model thread is getting to be very very poor in its posting quality. Just how any newcomers wanting to learn are expected too with the vast majority of posts in there is beyond me.

Any newcomer wanting to find out just what is likely to happen

pm any member of the team we will be happy to help

use the Met O Fax charts as the most realistic as to what will happen in that time frame.

Would agree. As a relative newcomer here, this is how I deal with it all John, especially when an easterly peeks over the horizon.

a. digest and learn carefully from a small, select band of members who post time and again with informative, balanced, model related views

b. read between the lines/take with a pinch of salt/scroll quickly past at least 80% of what the other posters throw in. They're all so attached to their own type of preferred weather, they will write their posts from that perspective, regardless of what the models actually indicate

and c. generally ignore everything else - it's invariably of a flabby, 'here's my opinion, but not backed up with any model evidence whatsoever' variety.

Taken me a while to get there, but now works a treat.

[Tom D]

I've been to a Lostprophets concert this evening ( ), but just had a look at the charts and amazing really. Some of those charts look familiar, the main thing being that I they suggest we're heading for another widespread very cold spell with the potential to be very hard to remove.

Winter 09/10 has already gone down in my books as the best in my lifetime, but can it go down as one of the best ever? We'll have to wait and see!

Edited February 5, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[BranMan]

thank you-one of the few constructive and realistic posts in there this evening.

I have to say, shoot me down, call me names, but the model thread is getting to be very very poor in its posting quality. Just how any newcomers wanting to learn are expected too with the vast majority of posts in there is beyond me.

Any newcomer wanting to find out just what is likely to happen

pm any member of the team we will be happy to help

use the Met O Fax charts as the most realistic as to what will happen in that time frame.

I'm a newcomer and I think something special is about to happen in the next few runs. I've seen these Model output threads gte very busy and I think the time has come for a deluge, of people posting and cold weather that does seem as though it's nailed on. The hesitancy of many these days is due to the models 'flipping' so frequently and letting many down. I can understand why people are so pessimistic this time around ( for the 3rd time now ) but patience is a virtue and remember everyone, it's only the beginning February, a lot can happen between now and April !

I remember heavy snow in April in South Wales about 5 or 6 years ago after a week of sunny warm weather whcih prompted me to put up the garden gazebo. I left it out that night when snow was falling only to find the whole thing had collapsed due to the weight of snow busting every corner pole.

It's great reading by the way, keep it up everyone, I'm a newcomer and I'm learning a lot from everyone who is wrong and everyone who is right.

steve

[dallas]

My opinion remains the same as before. Tonight is too early to be able to call this north-easterly outbreak "nailed on"- there's even a slight chance that it might not come off at all. If, however, we see cross-operational agreement for a north-easterly blast come tomorrow evening, and good ensemble support, I will suggest that it's pretty much nailed on.

Anything less and we may have to wait until Saturday before anything is nailed on one way or another.

Thanks,

So lets hope for good model concurance tomorrow, but be weary of any fly's in the ointment, sspanners in the works etc or short waves in Nick's eyeline! (i'm sue he will forgive me for that)

Well for me the uncertainity is especially from +84 to +120. Hopefully by Saturday the general trend for the early part of next week will be within the relatively reliable timeframe of +72.

What I have learn't in all my years of model watching is +0 to +72 and the general trend remains very similiar by all models. However +72 to +144 is a completely different kettle of fish and this timeframe can see differences between each models with variations between each runs. During this timeframe I have seen cold spelld downgraded and upgraded which is why im keeping an open mind for tomorrow. I will add I kept an open mind a few days ago when some were saying "no chance of a cold spell".

I will finally that back in the 1990s computer models only used to forecast to +144. Now in my opinion the accuracy of +72 to +144 hasn't really improved much. However for +72 to +144 my faith has always been with the UKMO with my preference for the ECM being for the longer range.

Blimey loads of good info there cheers, so if all models agreeing at T72 its pretty much but not quite there, and from 48 inwards look for details with subject to change

[snowspotter]

Clearly a big shidt in the models this morning following on from the 18z last night with agreement on no trigger low from the Norway region, leaving weak High pressure close by. Any easterly is put back and we are then reliant on further variable to retrogress the High towards Greenland, the most likely call given that the models can't forecast an easterly at T96, is that won't be one at all.

Fair enough but cold spell is on its way now I would say barring last minute drama. Not bothered about an easterly yet. 'Looking for the easterly' - the new headline for this winter everyone is using. Get the cold here first and well see what decvelops.

[Great Plum]

It's a bit early to say that Ian isn't it? We shouldn't congratulate the recent models just yet - it hasn't happened! What with the flip-flopping that's going on, I wouldn't be surprised to see further chaanges/ Anyway, if it was to pan out the way the models say, we could be in for a spell of cold anycyclonic frosty weather which makes a pleasant change from this murk...

With the models, expect the unexepected!

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think everyone is paying to much attention to detail. The Cold will come . Were in a situation with the charts at the moment where upgrades are likely , could appear anytime and would be plausable .

[Methuselah]

Please carry on...Previous:

[cold snap]

Good news from the GEM 00z, the high is further NW and the Scandi Trough impacts with a very snowy bitterly cold spell gripping the uk next week, nogaps 00z also ticks the correct boxes.

Im glad to see you have cheered up,

Have a looked at the UKMO faxes this will make you be happier even more.

GFS is pretty decent even still.

GFS has given me a constant headache lately with it constant chopping and changing.

Edited February 5, 2010 by cold snap

[Archie_Lewis]

People will either view the model output from a glass half full or empty perspective, given these charts a few days back there would have been great relief, however today there might be disappointment by some members who followed yesterdays GFS 12hrs.

At least we can count on the GFS to help with prozac orders or stress medication because the way people follow that model they certainly will be needed!

I agree to a point Nick.

Yes a big disappointment to those who followed the charts yesterday afternoon. I however was very cautious and realistic and knew from past model watching that anything along them lines that was showing (SNOWFEST), had to be taken with a pinch of salt until the reliable timeframe.

I have just breifly checled the GFS 00hrs and once AGAIN... The snowfest is in FI LA LA LAND.

Yes it looks cold next week but as massive prozac session this morning for members that just get to carried away.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Personally I think if the models do not swing back to the snowfest that they were showing yesterday by the end of today's 12z runs we will be looking at what the charts are showing now, the high just to the North of the UK and a cold dry outlook for most of the UK. I won't be complaining at least it will be cold with some nice frosty nights.

I know some people will be disappointed but you have to remember we don't live in Eastern Europe or Scandanavia so for us to get the deep cold that the models were showing yesterday really will take some kind of miracle. I could of course be wrong .

James

[John London]

Todays Model Mood: Much less excitement this morning. Some are getting a little depressed. Every week the "Beast From The East" is on its way only to be replaced by some ordinary weather. Has anyone considered the possibility that these models don't work?

[mountain shadow]

Todays Model Mood: Much less excitement this morning. Some are getting a little depressed. Every week the "Beast From The East" is on its way only to be replaced by some ordinary weather. Has anyone considered the possibility that these models don't work?

The thing is John, too many people see the model output as factual when of course they arent.

[kent]

Todays Model Mood: Much less excitement this morning. Some are getting a little depressed. Every week the "Beast From The East" is on its way only to be replaced by some ordinary weather. Has anyone considered the possibility that these models don't work?

I agree. When charts are dragged from the other side of Jupiter light years away to the shouts of, look at this and wow if this verifies a lot of people are lulled into a false sense of hope for something spectacular to happen when in reality I could say the same thing about the 6 numbers on my lottry ticket on Sat. eve. What if.

[La Bise]

Ordinary weather? As far as I can see, it's still a period of prolongues cold weather on the cards not raging swelies. 2 weeks of dry and cold weather, bring it on...

[weather eater]

Given the appalling way that the models have been handling the ongoing developments, how about we stop looking so far ahead and stick to the short term charts up to, say, t+48 or 72 hours ? Take anything past that with a pinch of salt. Once again people are looking too far ahead, hence the usual miserable and silly posts cropping up.

Spot on post, OK to look ahead for the general trend, which is getting colder from Sunday on and remaining cold for the foreseeable. The detail will change, it always does why do people keep looking at charts at 96hrs plus and expect that detail to make a stately procession into reality. I cannot understand why some seem unable to learn this, despite viewing models day in and day out. Reading through the thread yesterday was a depressing experience, it just really puts you off bothering, It might be an idea to ban the words upgrade and downgrade as models do neither of these, they evolve. The models handling of shortwaves is especially a pitfall in regards looking too far ahead at detail, you can almost guarantee that a shortwave progged for at 96hrs will either have moved, changed intensity (usually less in regards the GFS) or in some cases be lost/absorbed.. Making posts proclaiming snow fest at t96hrs plus, are just pointless wear and tear for your keyboard.

Objectivity is the key here, there are maybe 12 - 24 posters on the model thread who do treat model runs with caution and who make reasonable posts in regards how the detail will develop 72hrs plus. As for the rest, you know there’s an old saying. Better to say nothing and be thought a fool, rather than speak and prove it.

[Eugene]

A very narrow minded way at looking at it john lots of people love cold and seasonal weather in february and i hardly have my heating on anyway even when cold so it doesnt affect me money wise, i just put more layers on.

Very happy with current developments as i was going for colder and drier weather next week.

Yes i would much rather have a prolonged cold spell than have the risk of the atlantic breaking through, i walk alot in the countryside so i need weather you can rely on, with HP around you can always get retrogression down the line anyway, so much better than endless atlantic systems that runs were showing earlier this week.

I love slow burning cold spell as they just go on and on

[Totoro]

Spot on post, OK to look ahead for the general trend, which is getting colder from Sunday on and remaining cold for the foreseeable. The detail will change, it always does why do people keep looking at charts at 96hrs plus and expect that detail to make a stately procession into reality. I cannot understand why some seem unable to learn this, despite viewing models day in and day out. Reading through the thread yesterday was a depressing experience, it just really puts you off bothering, It might be an idea to ban the words upgrade and downgrade as models do neither of these, they evolve. The models handling of shortwaves is especially a pitfall in regards looking too far ahead at detail, you can almost guarantee that a shortwave progged for at 96hrs will either have moved, changed intensity (usually less in regards the GFS) or in some cases be lost/absorbed.. Making posts proclaiming snow fest at t96hrs plus, are just pointless wear and tear for your keyboard.

Objectivity is the key here, there are maybe 12 - 24 posters on the model thread who do treat model runs with caution and who make reasonable posts in regards how the detail will develop 72hrs plus. As for the rest, you know there’s an old saying. Better to say nothing and be thought a fool, rather than speak and prove it.

Excellent post, you said it far better than I did.

Can't help but notice that a few days ago people were generally agreeing that anything beyond about t+72 was highly unreliable, yet as soon as anything particularly cold and/or snowy appears on the charts at t+96 onwards people once again get sucked in. Likewise if, in the same FI timeframe, the model output then changes to something less favourable.

Let's have a little more analysis and objectivity here and stop taking much notice of anything past 72 hours.

[La Bise]

Agreed Eugene re cold/dry weather, nowt better than a nicely frozen path, at the end of your walk, your boots are as clean as they started...