Model Chat And Moods

[Weathizard]

Well, this run should cheer most of the doom mongers up a little.

Much less HP influence, stronger E/NE flow and much more in the way of convection. Those in NE/E/SE parts of the UK will be particularly pleased with this run.

Lets see more upgrades like this over the next few days please.

Hope so but again, this just shows a lot can still change, the latest one is a lot better as you have said but i won't be counting any chickens yet.

[John London]

Update on Model Mood: One hour later mood much improved.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Excellent 6z gfs and one hopes this trend continues this evening.I'm not getting into the business of replying to more dubious posts as this just fuels arguements.

The fact of the matter is we were looking down the barrel of a 'blowtorch' a few days ago,thankfully the models

now agree there will be NO blowtorch.

Plenty of cold weather to look forward to and those in the East can look forward to snow showers next week.

[londonsnow]

nice to see teits mention buchan, a true pioneer in meteorolgy. what would he make of todays modelling and sophistication.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Plenty of cold weather to look forward to and those in the East can look forward to snow showers next week.

As long as the HP stays centred to the N or NW, they can indeed. The GFS might not foresee much precipitation but it often underdoes shower activity in those setups, which look quite reminiscent of 6 to 8 January this year.

[MR EXTREMES]

As long as the HP stays centred to the N or NW, they can indeed. The GFS might not foresee much precipitation but it often underdoes shower activity in those setups, which look quite reminiscent of 6 to 8 January this year.

ok so im going to have a rant lastnight we had the mother of all outputs now we have had 1 run so its over.

omg some of the posts utter rubbish people talk is silly cold is near by details will change snow will fall but where well thats the million dollar question but it will fall.

im happy and id expect tonights outputs will be once again be exciting.

get the cold first then the detail later.:lol:

[smich]

As is usual, particularly with these kinds of set ups, there will be both upgrades and downgrades during the run in. Whenever the models do a major flip, there is nearly always some correction the other way in the following few runs.

As we get nearer the event itself these oscillations, if you like, will become less pronounced. But you will never get perfect continuity, not even within one model let alone across several!

Up to T72, I tend to use the Fax charts, because they have that little bit of human input and show smaller features more. I look for trends between T72 and T144 - especially on the ECM which doesn't even start til T72. FI is just a laugh really, although occaisionally (a couple of times this winter) GFS has showed a cold spell way way out which has verified to some degree.

Apologies for my rant last night, the kneejerkers really got to me for some reason!

Steve M

[cooling climate]

Well were off and another excellent afternoon and evening model watching to

come.

How cold and how much potential snowfall?That is the question.

[pascalsbongo]

The ECM and GFS are really showing signs of something , and its been really great model watching!!.

Lets hope we dont get the "downgrade" mob on here, with the slightest variation.

[Southender]

Big upgrades for everyone so far. Especially PPN in a countrywide sense.

[Lewis]

Which should that occur will benefit many locations.

Excellent medium range trend yet again at +192.

I noted on the UKMO that at only 48hrs away the colder E,lys are only just off the E coast.

Yep,

Fingers crossed it comes off, then everyone will be happy and have a fair share, i hate it when i for example get a pasting, and 20 miles inland it's bone dry. It's good for all of us to get in on the action After-all there's some guys on here, that don't see snow for ages, and they don't moan, they get on with it, stay positive and still have a fantastic input, and when they get 1cm of snow they are happy as a pig in mud

ECM is crucial imho.

[mountain shadow]

One word to describe tonights GFS...mental.

Shades of Feb 47' there surely?

[Solar Cycles]

One word to describe tonights GFS...mental.

Shades of Feb 47' there surely?

Steady on, it's a fantastic looking chart, but Feb 47! Lets hope the GFS is right, as this would make it a nationwide event, with all areas seeing snow at times!

[sandstorm2]

One word to describe tonights GFS...mental.

Shades of Feb 47' there surely?

Well I just missed 47, but all through the great winters of 63 and the 80's etc, my Dad would always say, 'YOU SHOULD HAVE SEEN 47'

SS2

[SP1986]

The charts shown will have nowhere near anything on 1947.. are these dates used for a laugh sometimes?

This cold spell looks to be potent but only potent on a 2001 level.

[REXUS]

Ihate the term <in the longer term things look better< why are looking for things better in the longer term? lets get it here as soon as poss. replying to quotes in model thread by the way

[John London]

Is what's now being celebrated in the Model Output place the "Beast From The East" or just weather coming from the east?

[If Wishes made Weather]

Just back from New England - hard to see what the fuss is again here about a couple of days of weather around freezing and a couple of inches of snow.

[La Bise]

It's a big deal for the UK old chap...

[peterf]

Just back from New England - hard to see what the fuss is again here about a couple of days of weather around freezing and a couple of inches of snow.

WHAT TIME IS THE RETURN FLIGHT. :lol:

[Ben_Cambs]

Just back from New England - hard to see what the fuss is again here about a couple of days of weather around freezing and a couple of inches of snow.

To be fair Tim, it has only come up again in the past few days and the latest runs suggest another prologned cold spell.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Thundery wintry showers]

No Feb 47 in the offing but potential for a fairly significant cold spell with some crisp bright days and some sleet/snow showers in eastern England, probably giving accumulations later on in the week, which would suit me just fine in Norwich.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Maybe not another 1947 but I would defiantly be happy with a 1996 style February do you agree?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z not very good, seem to be in no mans land at 132? cor hope this isnt the trend setter, want better 00z's

[John London]

Model Moods Update: Early this morning everyone a little down. A couple of hours later happy and excited. Tonight back down and bickering.

Edit: With just 3 days to go before this "severe cold spell" supposed to be appearing according to the models, we still have no idea what the weather in reality is going to be like. In my humble opinion these models do not work. Get new models, or just give up trying to predict the weather. Seagulls still standing on Lowestoft beach.

New Edit: The Mods are now shouting to try to take back control. If nothing else it's more interesting than Eastenders.

Edited February 5, 2010 by John London