Model Chat And Moods

[johnwirral]

What's the ECM, at 240 (and earlier) showing.

Is it snow from a north westerly, or rain?

[Optimus Prime]

Reading some of the comments I think some people need to seriously consider whether they are able to simply read the models or whether it's beyond their knowledge and give up.

Nothing has really changed this evening on the models that I can see of? Most of the snow on the east which sort of makes sense considering it's an 'Easterly'.

To be honest Dave I dread to think what will happen next winter if its an average or mild affair, Dec and Jan have led some people into forgetting the previous mild dross affairs of so many years.

I'm quite looking forward to next winter which will probably be mild and grey. Dross all round.

[full_frontal_occlusion]

(Originally posted on the Model output thread)

It may have escaped some folks notice (but by no means all) that this thread is in serious danger of becoming an exclusive club for sycophants and cliques.

Should we not forget that the rules for posting should be adhered and applied fairly to all, lest the moderators could be accused of at best favouritism and at worst fascism.

We're discussing the model output and interpretation for upcoming weather for goodness sake.

Perspective people, perspective.

Moderators. If you decide to delete this post (which I'm sure you will) please look at a few of the other posts on this thread and decide if they are sticking to the rules - whoever happens to have posted it?

Thank You.

ffO.

Edited February 8, 2010 by full_frontal_occlusion

[Eugene]

yep met o forecast sums it up really the models certainly wernt accurate into fi this time,

absolutely a downgrade and it happened very quickly it goes to show even with good teleconnections it can all go terribly wrong.

lol this time last week even on wednesday the models were mostly showing mild wet and windy weather dominating this week, i see that as a massive upgrade, rather cold by day with night frosts and snow showers for some in the north/east, miles better than what could of occured.

It amazes me some people believe models for end of next week when the models couldn't even make their mind up over this week just last wednesday, end of next week is so far away we could be stuck in this cold pattern still by then and anyway as we come towards the end of February anything near average/milder than average won't make much difference to the overall winter anyway.

Seeing as mild, wet and windy is the dominating weather in a british winter we have done exceptionally well to avoid hardly any at all apart from the odd day here and there.

I think GEM 00Z and ECM 00Z are very good and would takes ages to properly warm us up which by that time it would be early March anyway

[MR EXTREMES]

sorry peeps i cant be the only one who reads into the models to much i went 3days or more optimistic,

im just saying joe b weather online two outlook even net weather and the bbc country file forecasters have all been calling for a longterm cold and beefing up next weeks cold with snow.

ok this is the case maybe for scotland northern england and im not saying this week wont be cold with snow around after all we already have flakes falling now on the south coast.

but im simply saying the models where good for medium term cold with good snowy events until this morning now i would say wait and see but im as confused as the next newbie,

i held high confidence in a decent cold febuary and so did BFTP and cooling climate ect ect.

difference is some people like to express there dissapointment as others wont like steve murr when you look at the models for a entire winter and when the next event turns up it can be rather gutting.

although its good to hear the ukmo has top the charts.

on the flip side it is sleety snow here so it goes to show that rain was most likely here today in the south so cold kicking in fast.

i do apoligise moods for you having to move my post:drinks:.

Edited February 8, 2010 by badboy657

[Interitus]

Posted this in the general chat area but thought it may be good in here as well.

I can see plenty of snow out in F1 at the moment:

The potential is there, but I would be a bit surprised with that big ridge of high pressure sat on us at that particular time.

[chionomaniac]

sorry peeps i cant be the only one who reads into the models to much i went 3days or more optimistic,

im just saying joe b weather online two outlook even net weather and the bbc country file forecasters have all been calling for a longterm cold and beefing up next weeks cold with snow.

ok this is the case maybe for scotland northern england and im not saying this week wont be cold with snow around after all we already have flakes falling now on the south coast.

but im simply saying the models where good for medium term cold with good snowy events until this morning now i would say wait and see but im as confused as the next newbie,

i held high confidence in a decent cold febuary and so did BFTP and cooling climate ect ect.

difference is some people like to express there dissapointment as others wont like steve murr when you look at the models for a entire winter and when the next event turns up it can be rather gutting.

although its good to hear the ukmo has top the charts.

on the flip side it is sleety snow here so it goes to show that rain was most likely here today in the south so cold kicking in fast.

i do apoligise moods for you having to move my post:drinks:.

BB, I think it is good to temper expectations with a good dose of realism. I can understand, as I too share your hope for a snowmageddon situation but in reality these come along few and far between in a maritime temperate climate that we have here, especially near the south coast. February still has time to deliver but we may have to settle for the odd short lasting snowfall and severe frost. Perhaps we may get more than that, perhaps not. But if one looks at the overall pattern there is still a lot to be hopeful for after what has been a great winter already. So step back and let the weather do what the weather will do and don't get too drawn in on any particular model output without considering the overall situation first. If I remember rightly you did try and write this winter off before it started (El Nino factor!!) and just look at what we have had. So keep that chin up.

c

[Eugene]

This is the kind of chart in previous winters after the usual stormy January people would be looking forward to some nice relief with some cold and frosty dry weather

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

[aspire27]

The gfs continues to push the HP further South full stop, and if it continues to do so, come thursday/friday all of us will be under it.

Lets see what the ECM shows.

Sorry but have to agree with Lewis. He has a good point and thats how he sees the models and what he thinks will happen. If the ECM shows the same I think Lewis will have his trend.

[Timmytour]

I respect and enjoy the opinions of both TEITS and Storm Force on here as I do many others. Guys...what's the problem with having different opinions? One thing for certain is that not any one person will be right 100% of the time.

Personally my feeling is that the high pressure will continue to drift south as per SF. I hope it doesn't but think it will. I think wanting the models to show the severe stuff is a bit like being a Spurs supporter... we want to finish in the top 4 and are getting frustrated about some results which should have gone our way as wins, but ended up as draws... nevertheless compared the loast season when we were worried about relegation, this season has been "triffic"!

[Frosty.]

Frosty, I was considering to say the same thing! I am glad you posted first! lol

Karyo

It had to be said, this week is now looking quite unexceptional for the majority of the uk with only the far southeast and maybe some eastern coasts further north catching some sleet and snow showers, the high is just too close and will create benign conditions for many. The GFS 12z looks much more wintry into next week so it's a case of hoping it doesn't downgrade as we get closer.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The models look pretty poor as far as snow is concerned for the majority.

Looking good for SE England and i say good luck to them .

Having said that those cold uppers that teits posted look like staying only very

briefly and a thaw will soon kick in as soon as they leave at this time of year.

Edited February 8, 2010 by Coast

[conor123]

The grey featureless grime isn't going to keep blasting its way over us all week is it?? would be nice to see the sun sometime soon...

Have to say i resisted commenting on the charts when they looked great a few days ago and its now downgraded to the usual so my suspicions were right..

Edited February 8, 2010 by conor123

[Cheese Rice]

Just looked at the GFS, nothing special really, if you live in the far south east some snow possible, other than that cold and dry for the majority. I can't see us heading anywhere with this current pattern until the (possible) northerly, there is really nothing of interest for most. I dont see what is so exciting, cold and cloudy for most.

[Duane S.]

Fair enough but I will always take issue when I think somebody's post is misleading (and that's nothing to do with opinion) and that was the problem with your original post. It was obvious from how you wrote it that you were bitter about the outlook not being as good as it could have been and were implying that the models had been downgrade after downgrade. Very confusing if I was a newbie trying to understand the models.

Whereas if you are honest with yourself you would have to admit that where we are now is, yes, not as good as it maybe it COULD have been, but... pretty much what had been forecast. There is still time for plenyt to change.

And if you want to see how to put across a 'realistic' view properly, look no further than Nick Sussex who does it very well indeed.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

It doesn't "look good for SE England". It looks good for Kent, and it will be good for Kent because it aways is.

A NEly set up like this never delivers significant PPN to London or South Essex which are also in SE England.

This is due to the shape of the coast. What the majority of the population in SE England needs is a direct, fast flowing Ely but that is not being shown.

There is nothing exciting about these charts yet for me. My region only just scraped 3 inches in January from accumulated dustings. The charts aren't showing a good set up for the SE snow-wise.

[TEITS]

Im going to have a moan in this thread for a change.

At the moment I feel im in a no win situation on the model discussion thread. If I only mention E Anglia/SE then im accuased of being bias even though im just commenting on what the models show. What then happens is when the models show it remaining dry for areas away from the SE/E Anglia im accused of ramping and misleading members even though I clearly stated E Anglia/SE was favoured.

I have learn't a lesson on the model discussion thread and that is never to mention snow or predict where its likely to fall. Im just going to comment on the overall pattern and leave the detail to others.

[Neilsouth]

Im going to have a moan in this thread for a change.

At the moment I feel im in a no win situation on the model discussion thread. If I only mention E Anglia/SE then im accuased of being bias even though im just commenting on what the models show. What then happens is when the models show it remaining dry for areas away from the SE/E Anglia im accused of ramping and misleading members even though I clearly stated E Anglia/SE was favoured.

I have learn't a lesson on the model discussion thread and that is never to mention snow or predict where its likely to fall. Im just going to comment on the overall pattern and leave the detail to others.

I know ! , i just got a pm from small minded person who said im being imby and should stick to my local thread!

It's a model discussion thread , discussing models who cares where

Edited February 8, 2010 by neilsouth

[Snowstorm1]

Im going to have a moan in this thread for a change.

At the moment I feel im in a no win situation on the model discussion thread. If I only mention E Anglia/SE then im accuased of being bias even though im just commenting on what the models show. What then happens is when the models show it remaining dry for areas away from the SE/E Anglia im accused of ramping and misleading members even though I clearly stated E Anglia/SE was favoured.

I have learn't a lesson on the model discussion thread and that is never to mention snow or predict where its likely to fall. Im just going to comment on the overall pattern and leave the detail to others.

TEITS i think you do a brilliant job and please do include your thoughts on snowfall because people like me thouroughly appreaciate it!

Offtopic neilsouth but your pm just made me laugh but now I think there is a new Ian on this forum a much more realistic slightly less biased than what he used to be! Sometimes he doess ramp mild but generally now when i read his posts i have much more respect for him

[Upgrade]

the kiddies are obvioulsy back from school

Why must we put up with bickering in the model thread.

It's like BBC snowwatch!

Where's Bill Farkin?

[Snowyowl9]

Heres a classic NE-ly I don`t remember.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1983/Rrea00119830208.gif

[MR EXTREMES]

That's fair enough :lol:

But whats mid leading about, the HP being further South with the colder air heading into the near continent (France).

Let's hope the ECM can come to the rescue, or put us out of our misory with regards such uncertainty.

ive got to agree with you on everything you have posted tonight,

i was quick to jump the gun with you a few days ago in regards to the model approach,

but it turns out you could well be right.

i did mention lastnight,

or should i say early this morning that the high was sinking and it clearly is,

it was also true only a couple of days ago we were seeing a easterly on more than 1 model,

that idear has clearly moved on.

with a west based nao its not looking good for future developments either,

this week until thursday looks like being wintry depending on your location,

things change there after, this has been a very positive trend from the models.

ofcoarse still cold this week dry for most some will be happy with this others wont,

also maybe just maybe some trough disruption from the northeast over the next few days hopefully.

but ive made my mind up brief 5 or 6 day cold spell for most of england,

and colder air holding on in perhapes northern england and scotland,things could change but unlikely now.

[keithlucky]

Im going to have a moan in this thread for a change.

At the moment I feel im in a no win situation on the model discussion thread. If I only mention E Anglia/SE then im accuased of being bias even though im just commenting on what the models show. What then happens is when the models show it remaining dry for areas away from the SE/E Anglia im accused of ramping and misleading members even though I clearly stated E Anglia/SE was favoured.

I have learn't a lesson on the model discussion thread and that is never to mention snow or predict where its likely to fall. Im just going to comment on the overall pattern and leave the detail to others.

Cant help people who are born jealous eye ,some people are born to moan lol.

[snowingtequila]

I am searching for the least downbeat thread, but everyone seems so miserable. The weather seems to be pretty much as the models have predicted so why is everyone down. Personally I have been told no snow this week at all being in the northwest however, it has been snowing lightly all day and we had a temporary covering this morning and a fresh covering now. I know we haven't had blizzards yet but it has been cold and snowing what more do people really want? Some people are never satisfied, day one of the spell and no one seems happy!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it's because many model runs were showing a potent north-easterly a few days ago and now we're looking at a mostly dry anticyclonic spell with some wintry showers running down the eastern side of Britain.

But it could be so much worse for cold/snow lovers. We've seen these easterlies downgrade at T+72 to mild and anticyclonic before, at least it's still going to be cold with snow for some!

ECM in FI looks similar to December 2009's event with quite a west based NAO but the jet holding off to the S so we stay in a fairly modified polar airflow- probably sunshine and snow showers for many but with the very cold weather reserved for northern Britain.