Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

A fresh new topic here ready for use, remember the usual rules people!

[Costa Del Fal]

12Z GFS & 12Z NAE all show things a bit further North bringing the West Midlands a bit more into play again. Some could do very well from this however a quite marginal situation again but heavy perhaps very heavy ppn could do the trick.

[Slowpoke]

Post pictures of the snow!

[NorthantsSnow]

Ugh, just seen the NAE. And so the westward shift begins!

Incredible, it really is. Just when I think, hey-ho we might get something decent, it decides to take a more westward trajectory.

I give up.

[MKN]

The Nae is only out to +24 atm. And why do the midlands not get a sub topic like snowmageddon lol

[Nick L]

Post pictures of the snow!

If we had some snow we would!

[MKN]

The accumulative totals on the 12 nae is all the way out to +48 but the other charts arent. Based on that though birmingham looks roughly to get the most precip

[Backtrack]

If we had some snow we would!

Yeah Nick, we want to see your dusting of slush!

[Costa Del Fal]

Well if the NAE 12Z is right, the PPN accumulation chart would suggest some 15-20cm here by the end of tomorrow. I doubt it will be that much if its right however some very heavy snow perhaps prolonged looks likely but im thinking more 10cm possible.

[NorthantsSnow]

The accumulative totals on the 12 nae is all the way out to +48 but the other charts arent. Based on that though birmingham looks roughly to get the most precip

Leicestershire and S Derbyshire still look more than OK. If I were you I'd bank this one! Not quite in the bullseye, but a lot closer to it than us.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/17/basis12/ukuk/rsum/10021912_1712.gif

[R.P. McMurphy]

Lets hope the snows better than West Sandwich Albanian

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes please!

[kold weather]

I'm not sure its any further west its just the angle of the front is a little different to the 06z thats all.

Still the timing is better for those further east on the 12z run, things very marginal for the west Midlands during the afternoon but the 12z NAE takes long enough to eject the system ENE that any rain probably would turn to snow overnight...

The slower the better for the west Midlands, the E.Midlands should have that worry unless it takes sooo long that it doesn't really set in till the sun is already up.

[MKN]

The only danger on the NAE is the dewpoints, Alot more marginal as you go south and east, bringing maybe parts of the south east midlands into rain/sleet rather than snow. Not a trend that we want to see continue.

[NorthantsSnow]

Just waiting for the NMM to come out and complete the set before I raid the cupboard for some prozac.

[NorthantsSnow]

The only danger on the NAE is the dewpoints, Alot more marginal as you go south and east, bringing maybe parts of the south east midlands into rain/sleet rather than snow. Not a trend that we want to see continue.

Yes dewpoints have shot up for here on this output to ensure we get a rainfest tomorrow.

Meh, I still don't trust it anyway. Last night it was still farting about with today's front at 18z.

[MKN]

looks like that would hit the bullseye Until it moves on the next run at least

[locneverstop]

The accumulative totals on the 12 nae is all the way out to +48 but the other charts arent. Based on that though birmingham looks roughly to get the most precip

Sorry what's the timing on this event? My computer isn't playing ball.

If Birmingham's going to get the brunt I think I may take an executive lunch (go home )

[Nick L]

Yeah Nick, we want to see your dusting of slush!

Sorry but it's all melted!

[conor123]

Tommorow's chart is another upsetting near miss one for us Shropshire & Staffordshire folks.

[NorthantsSnow]

Interestingly the UKMO, whilst not high-res like the NAE and NMM, takes the main threat further south and east:

The plot thickens!

[MKN]

Sorry what's the timing on this event? My computer isn't playing ball.

If Birmingham's going to get the brunt I think I may take an executive lunch (go home )

Not till evening tommorow, NAE has it starting around 6pm albeit lightly for us, gfs has the heavy stuff here by then. It really gets going about midnight though based on the nae, depends which is correct. Just watch the bbc forecast after the 10pm news to get the best idea. The mettoffice must have better info and more likely to be accurate than we are.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Just waiting for the NMM to come out and complete the set before I raid the cupboard for some prozac.

[locneverstop]

Not till evening tommorow, NAE has it starting around 6pm albeit lightly for us, gfs has the heavy stuff here by then. It really gets going about midnight though based on the nae, depends which is correct. Just watch the bbc forecast after the 10pm news to get the best idea. The mettoffice must have better info and more likely to be accurate than we are.

Thanks!

Here's hoping. Do NOT want a repeat of January trying to climb up hills at 6:45pm in heavy snow...

[MKN]

Interestingly the UKMO, whilst not high-res like the NAE and NMM, takes the main threat further south and east:

The plot thickens!

That would leave most with next to nothing in england as the precip would be bang over where the dewpoints are to high for it to fall as snow.