Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[PolarWarsaw]

We need a 30 odd mile movement of NW of the front and then we'd be looking dandy. ATM though id say at best were only going to get bits an bobs in my neck of the woods.

[Gord]

We're having a day out in London on the train tomorrow. Could be interesting as we arrive back in the West Midlands tomorrow evening.

I have to say that I just don't trust marginal situations. We've had a few this winter and most of them have been on the side of sleet/rain.

Going on recent form, I'm going for rain tomorrow. But thats me being stupid and ignoring all the model output. Put it this way, the models have performed better than my hunches this winter!

What will be nice will be that because I'm in London all day, I won't have access to the internet and i just won't know what is going on until my train gets closer to Birmingham. Theres something I quite like about not knowing until it happens!

[MKN]

The Nae now completely out and some would have upto 18hours of snow if that was correct lol

North-east Midlands could do very well if the latest NAE predictions materialise, probably moreso than the west Midlands. In terms of snowfalls, I think if snowfall is the main form of precipitation then 1-2" are certainly possible over some lower levels - having considerable elevation, say around 100-150 metres ASL will help significantly. High ground could see possibly 3" falls from this, again that is if snowfall is the main form of precip as it progresses north-east into the west Midlands.

If it all falls as snow in the regions where the precip is heavy then id say 10cms (4") is likely for quite a few.

[Nick L]

Tommorow's chart is another upsetting near miss one for us Shropshire & Staffordshire folks.

Story of the winter so far!

[NorthantsSnow]

That would leave most with next to nothing in england as the precip would be bang over where the dewpoints are to high for it to fall as snow.

Well the dewpoints are changing on every output! For example on the NAE 06z the dewpoint was progged to be 0C for Northants, now it's suddenly shot up to 2C. Frankly it's as fickle as the precipitation forecasts at the moment.

This one isn't settled yet and the UKMO's southeastern shift cannot be ignored just because it's not high-res.

(The prozac can stay in the cupboard. For now.)

[A.J]

Tommorow's chart is another upsetting near miss one for us Shropshire & Staffordshire folks.

Its a little tease Conor....so close but so far, but having researched the net, I've found a new weather model that shunts everything 50 miles or so west, snowmageddon time for us....Its called the AJP Model, and can be found at the following link.... www.weathermodelsRus.com/snowfortomorrow?/youmustbejoking!!

[kold weather]

The only danger on the NAE is the dewpoints, Alot more marginal as you go south and east, bringing maybe parts of the south east midlands into rain/sleet rather than snow. Not a trend that we want to see continue.

Yeah they are a little higher then the 06z run but closer in line with the 12z GFS...The risk for the east Midlands is if it gets delayed any more then by the time you guys get onto the NW part of the front where snow is quite probable temps and dew points may well be edging towards the wrong side of marginal anyway, plus obviously the further NW it gets adjusted the more milder air there will be.

By the way with regards to the UKMO, the precip is further south and thus the milder temps/dew points would also be further south in that set-up...

[NorthantsSnow]

By the way with regards to the UKMO, the precip is further south and thus the milder temps/dew points would also be further south in that set-up...

Yeah, that's what I thought. So counties on the northern extent would still look to be OK.

The UKMO would favour the home counties probably and up into Cambridgeshire but also OK for here.

[kold weather]

To some extent thats true Ian though thats why the time of day will be important, during the daytime you may well be right as today has proven but for thoswe areas that get lucky and get it overnight (the central parts for NAE, eastern for GFS) I'd imagine it may well start as snow right away, esp on the NW side. I'd be surprised if snow settles away from high ground until tomorrow eveing as well.

Also worth noting the GFS is FAR faster in kicking this snowfall out into the North Sea, the 12z NAE is probably about 18hrs slower which is a huge difference.

I suspect the GFS will be closer to the mark but the 18z runs will therefore be important.

Edited February 17, 2010 by kold weather

[camperstron]

Well, I'm feeling increasingly interested in tomorrow evenings/fridays set up. I think that it's looking less and less and less marginal. I'm going to have an early one tonight to prepare for the excitement tomorrow!

[Strider]

I hope it all moves east so the East Midlands get the brunt of it. West Midlanders, you've already had your fair share thanks! Now it's our turn!:lol:

[kold weather]

Yep weather09 the time of day will make a big difference, the longer the front takes the better for more western areas, but equally if it takes a while to get there it also erodes the chances for those further east. If you want a general time window where snow probably is most likely to settle I'd say between 6-7pm on Thursday through to 10am Friday. Outside that timeframe and I'd imagine your going to need either higher ground or a very heavy bursts to drag temps down enough...and during the afternoon it may well be mainly sleety in nature.

At least unlike todays set-up there is a pretty good chance of snow due to the chances of it still being around in the eveing/overnight hours.

Lets hope the NAE is closer to the truth then the GFS, if the GFS is right then it could be a fairly raw day with snow/sleet and rain all having thier turn...

[stevomatt]

i for one am not taking any notice as this area has had huge let downs ... eg today !!!

[kold weather]

Looking at the timings of the front at the moment we have over us, plus what we are seeing on the radar the 12z GFS looks better with regards to the timings, it seems like the NAE is holding this front back a little too much, therefore I think the NAE is too slow and something between the GFS/NAE looks like the right call, therefore probably marginal for the W.Midlands, probably by the time the front reaches Central/Eastern parts I think the time of day will be more favourable.

Still could be a very interesting 24-36hrs I feel, more so then this last 24hrs anyway due to the possible time of day it arrives at...

[NorthantsSnow]

i for one am not taking any notice as this area has had huge let downs ... eg today !!!

Very wise mate. It's been disappointment after disappointment for us this winter. Makes you realise just how lucky we were last Feb.

For what it's worth I still think there are changes to come to the forecast tomorrow. I doubt they have nailed it yet.

[kar999]

Yes please!

:wacko:

Tommorow's chart is another upsetting near miss one for us Shropshire & Staffordshire folks.

Yep... looks like close but no cigar again!

Edited February 17, 2010 by kar999

[NorthantsSnow]

The latest NMM is out and is very similar to the NAE. Not much more to add really.

[NorthantsSnow]

NMM suggests 33mm of precipitation for Worcester. But most of that it progs as sleet. It turns to snow around 7pm as the dewpoint drops to 0C, by which point the precipitation is moving away. So yes timing will be crucial.

For East Mids it comes in waves. The first now looks likely to be rain but the second bash looks likely to be snow as temps drop back with a light to moderate event Thursday night.

Overall though the models could not have downgraded any more in 6 hours for my county. It's just so depressing.

[dvdfjojo]

Just rain for us today in Polesworth & Kingsbury, not even sleet. I'm hopeful for snow tomorrow purely looking at the intensity/accumulation on the models (especially the NAE) but it just doesn't feel cold enough yet, hopefully that will change tomorrow.

Mind you, I'm going to Nuneaton for an operation first thing on Friday morning and it's been cancelled by them a couple of times already so I'm hoping that even if we get a great covering, the roads will be passable come Friday.

Gonna have a lovely day radar and thread watching tomorrow - I bet it's going to be real busy in here and I hope it's not due to disappointment, it's so borderline it's untrue.

Cross your fingers everyone!!!!!

[stevomatt]

so would we get a covering here according to latest charts!!! why is it down grade after down grade for this area all the time, i have lived her for 1.5 years (movd from wales) and they have been pasted this winter.... follwoing last feb i thought wow this area gets lots of snow lol ....

[A.J]

I hope it all moves east so the East Midlands get the brunt of it. West Midlanders, you've already had your fair share thanks! Now it's our turn!:winky:

Whaaaa??.....wot planet are you from??.......

[conor123]

Whaaaa??.....wot planet are you from??....... :winky:

We've had nothing but sleety flurries here most of the day after 5 minutes of Moderate Snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Whaaaa??.....wot planet are you from??.......

sleet/heavy wet snow, which was lying in plant pots, but stopped for 1 hour now, tomorrows snow will miss to the East

[Hailsowen]

Birmingham's gonna get pasted according to BBC maps...

I think it reads "16 hours of snow"

Edited February 17, 2010 by Hailsowen

[Strider]

Whaaaa??.....wot planet are you from??....... :winky:

We've had less than 5cm all winter...