Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[A.J]

I think whichever way in turns out, whether the GFS or NAE is closer to the mark, north-eastern parts of the Midlands look to do well out of this. For me personally, I'm hoping the NAE continues with its predictions regarding the arrival of the precip as well as the other various factors favourable for some heavy wet snowfall. Marginality could become quite a problem as it makes its way across the west Midlands- so higher elevations will be best places to avoid any period of rain or sleet should it occur. Obviously, still more model runs in this before being sure of what to expect.

NMM draws a fine line between the places that get snow and places that get a mix of rain and sleet. A late afternoon arrival would help to shift things on the right side of marginal- so avoiding any period of rain or sleet. Just to add, the NMM transitions most of the precip to snow during the evening, so parts of the east Midlands should avoid marginality altogether.

Jeez, the 15z NMM is tantalising!!...Some wonderful snowy weather in the offing for the M42 corridor I think. For me, Just a tad, an absolute smidgen too far west...If there is a weather god up there, all I'm asking for is a 30 mile shunt to the north west, just a small shunt would do the trick...I have an awful feeling though, that I'll be using the :winky: smiley tomorrow evening, whilst peeps a few miles SE will be posting on here that they're having multiple snowgasms!

[kold weather]

NMM suggests 33mm of precipitation for Worcester. But most of that it progs as sleet. It turns to snow around 7pm as the dewpoint drops to 0C, by which point the precipitation is moving away. So yes timing will be crucial.

For East Mids it comes in waves. The first now looks likely to be rain but the second bash looks likely to be snow as temps drop back with a light to moderate event Thursday night.

Going to come totally down to timings of the front, if the 12z NAE is right then the whole of the Midlands will have a better shot bar maybe the very far east. The 12z NMM and the GFS both agree on it passing into West Midlands through the afternoon before spreading into E.Midlands in the eveing hours.

The NMM 12z run also shows heavy snow developing early morning then moving into the SW Midlands in the mid morning. The model progs snowfall even in the peak afternoon hours however if it does fall I'd be doubtful it'd start to settle to the eveing hours...therefore its best for those in the W.Midlands if the front follows the NAE timings. Some moderate falls in the East Midlands on this run with temps and dews both good enough for settling snow there.

[Costa Del Fal]

Very nice updated BBC graphics. :winky:

[Albion Snowman]

Had very wet snow for a few hours today, though amounting to nothing with temps of around 2.1C.

Tomorrow looks more promising, with heavier PPN than today so hopefully it should drag the temps down a bit more.

[Costa Del Fal]

Timing could be an issue for some but heavier ppn should also help so it could go either way!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very nice updated BBC graphics.

must admit the bbc weather ive just watched at 6.25pm looked good, looked like a repeat of 23rd Dec, movement wise and timing, but living here I never get excited until I see the snow falling

can guarantee it will be downgraded to a wintry mix, during tomorrows bbc weather

[Costa Del Fal]

Blimey just seen the NMM. Now if all thats snow i think we will need more than a shovel and some grit. :lol:

[cyclonic happiness]

Blimey just seen the NMM. Now if all thats snow i think we will need more than a shovel and some grit. :lol:

I don't mean to be thick but....what's the NMM and do you have a link?

[Costa Del Fal]

I don't mean to be thick but....what's the NMM and do you have a link? :lol:

You need Net Weather Extra for it but is a high resolution model updated 4 times a day: http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=nmm;sess=21b38463f7427af31fdb82c7f8100172

[Summer of 95]

Nothing but 3 hours of sleet and wet snow here today, which even when it turned heavy refused to stick, even on cars. I fear we've reached the point in the year when it only settles at night and early morning; in which case we need tomorrow's precip to hold off until 6pm. Don't think I could manage another event of rain sleet/here and snow elsewhere in the country........

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nothing but 3 hours of sleet and wet snow here today, which even when it turned heavy refused to stick, even on cars. I fear we've reached the point in the year when it only settles at night and early morning; in which case we need tomorrow's precip to hold off until 6pm. Don't think I could manage another event of rain sleet/here and snow elsewhere in the country........

Yeah think the time of year against us at these low elevations, if this had been the best period 15th Dec-15th Jan, it would have been all snow, and would have had maybe 2cm's

[A.J]

Yeah think the time of year against us at these low elevations, if this had been the best period 15th Dec-15th Jan, it would have been all snow, and would have had maybe 2cm's

Since I've lived here, the best snow events have been later in the winter than this...last year was just before easter if memory serves me correct

[I Cumbria Marra I]

We've had less than 5cm all winter...

[Costa Del Fal]

The Ppn chart on the Meto Invent charts would suggest here getting a right pounding be it rain sleet or snow! :lol:

[PolarWarsaw]

What do we think for here tommorow? Me and nick going to be missing out again? So many times its been so close yet so far this winter. Its bloody frustrating!.

[Nick L]

What do we think for here tommorow? Me and nick going to be missing out again? So many times its been so close yet so far this winter. Its bloody frustrating!.

It's going to be a very close call tomorrow, worth keeping a very close eye on the radar for. I would rather it miss by 100 miles than 10!

[azores92]

Yes a near miss for South Staffs, with the heavy PPN to the South, not sure that the PPN will amount to all that much, could be a lot of wet snow.

well lets just wait and see, we're still a fair way away from nowcasting territory, so making assumptions at this stage is going to be guesswork, on who gets hit etc.

[jukebox]

Yes a near miss for South Staffs, with the heavy PPN to the South, not sure that the PPN will amount to all that much, could be a lot of wet snow.

Fair comment for the moment but look how things shifted last night???? one more run needed methinks

[Costa Del Fal]

Like i did earlier for the 06z output, ive drawn another quick map regarding the risk from 12z output.

It should give the general idea, perhaps modifications are needed here and there. I would actually bring the Red Zone slightly SE Wards.

Red area- High risk of heavy prolonged snowfall.

Orange area- Low to Moderate risk of heavy snowfall. Uncertainty regarding the extent of the snowfall and in the South of the orange zone where the boundary of rain sleet and snow will be.

Green area- No real risk of snow.

Edited February 17, 2010 by Blizzards

[Nick L]

Latest BBC forecast seemed very, very promising for all in the Midlands bar the far north of Staffordshire and north/west Shropshire.

Edited February 17, 2010 by nick2702

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Like i did earlier for the 06z output, ive drawn another quick map regarding the risk from 12z output.

It should give the general idea, perhaps modifications are needed here and there.

Red area- High risk of heavy prolonged snowfall.

Orange area- Low to Moderate risk of heavy snowfall. Uncertainty regarding the extent of the snowfall and in the South of the orange zone where the boundary of rain sleet and snow will be.

Green area- No real risk of snow.

Well im in 0range section (or on boundary of the red even), so wouldnt mind that, but do need a shift NW, nick yeah bbc weather looked very good

Edited February 17, 2010 by mark forster 630

[phil nw.]

My location is in the sweet spot but i reckon the snow will be wet and i only expect a slushy slight covering.

With daytime temps. expected above freezing i can`t see anything notable from this.

The real cold flow is just to the north of the UK for the next few days so i really am not excited by this setup,it`s just going to be raw and damp with sleety rain or wet snow at times.

[Summer of 95]

Like i did earlier for the 06z output, ive drawn another quick map regarding the risk from 12z output.

It should give the general idea, perhaps modifications are needed here and there.

Red area- High risk of heavy prolonged snowfall.

Orange area- Low to Moderate risk of heavy snowfall. Uncertainty regarding the extent of the snowfall and in the South of the orange zone where the boundary of rain sleet and snow will be.

Green area- No real risk of snow.

Looks like here on the east side of Shrewsbury we're in the red, but the west side is orange- but as always I don't trust any forecast of snow for this town until I actually see it sticking to the ground! Please, please not another everywhere-but-Shropshire event..............

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like here on the east side of Shrewsbury we're in the red, but the west side is orange- but as always I don't trust any forecast of snow for this town until I actually see it sticking to the ground! Please, please not another everywhere-but-Shropshire event..............

I really do stress thats its a quick, rough diagram. Tbh when i look at it again i would bring the Red zone slightly SE Wards.

[Nick L]

I really do stress thats its a quick, rough diagram. Tbh when i look at it again i would bring the Red zone slightly SE Wards.

I am in the red zone, therefore if I don't get more than 5cm of snow you will have an angry message in your inbox