Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[dogs32]

Until I see it lying in my garden I am remaining very, very cautious! But the BBC forecasts are going into ramp mode big time tonight.

yes thats what I thought...

Though Mr Wynne as been known to be fairly accurate with his snow forecast

Edited February 17, 2010 by dogs32

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Until I see it lying in my garden I am remaining very, very cautious! But the BBC forecasts are going into ramp mode big time tonight.

I'm hoping for a 23rd Dec, of course temps not as cold as then, as then was hard frost 3 days in a row before, but similar timing 6pm and was described as marginal, that wasn't marginal

This though does look like sliding east, we could just see a repeat of today

[Strider]

I think we should have a 2 minutes silence at 9pm to pray for this to happen

[Costa Del Fal]

Right oh, here we are - a rather vague map.

PLEASE bear in mind this is not for snow, this is mearly total rainfall in the Midlands during the start of Thurday to 6am on Friday.

But if that is snow...yummm.

Any excitement should be reserved till tomorrow i think when details can be firmed up.

[Phil UK]

Just checked my phone and I've got some pictures of that event,At 1.30pm I watched as it rolled in from the Tamworth direction and just gave about 5 minutes or so of the heaviest snow I have ever seen aswell before rolling off towards you. I recall the wind just getting really strong and then everything turned white in about 10 seconds lol. Thats one event that will stick with me for a long time ps I was in Coleshill at the time

This be the ones. Jukebox...

Oh what a shower that was!

[Hailsowen]

But if that is snow...yummm. :lol:

Any excitement should be reserved till tomorrow i think when details can be firmed up.

I should also mention that anywhere between 1-3mm of any snow that falls won't count towards any settling stuff.

[Costa Del Fal]

Its nice to see the Midlands regional discussion thread as the busiest one for a change!

[Nick L]

Just checked my phone and I've got some pictures of that event,At 1.30pm I watched as it rolled in from the Tamworth direction and just gave about 5 minutes or so of the heaviest snow I have ever seen aswell before rolling off towards you. I recall the wind just getting really strong and then everything turned white in about 10 seconds lol. Thats one event that will stick with me for a long time ps I was in Coleshill at the time

I was so peed off about that brief event. I was in a maths lesson with all the blinds closed so I was oblivious to what was going on outside!

[NorthantsSnow]

I should also mention that anywhere between 1-3mm of any snow that falls won't count towards any settling stuff.

Got the Lotto numbers for Sat whilst you're at it?

[dogs32]

Think it's down to the various factors, such as dewpoints being a little more favourable- especially as we head into the evening when both the temp and dewpoint fall slightly on the right side of marginal. The main factor I think, though, is the intensity of the precipitation. Heavy precip will cool the air even further so snowfall becomes more likely across lower levels and not just over high ground.

you know what make's it more interesting is the fact it's going to be heavy thundery rain...and this turning into snow?....wow! could be nice out there tomorrow.

Interesting day on the radar!

[kold weather]

Well they are based on the NAE just spruced up so they would look good for the west.

Sorry if I sound snappy I'm just disappointed that it's looking so marginal again for here.

The NAE may not be too bad though because the fronts western portion doesn't arrive till well into the night which would probably mean snowfall and a good chance that it settles IMO...

Its quite a tough forecast to make though because of differences in timings, if you want to have a very broad idea, as I said last night if you have precip between say 11am-6pm it'll probably be rain or sleet away from high ground and heavy bursts, outside of those times and the odds are it'll be snow, and overnight hours I'd imagine it'd settle more the likely.

[Hailsowen]

Got the Lotto numbers for Sat whilst you're at it?

6, 9, 16, 18, 31, 38

Use them wisely..!

But honestly, I hope this all doesn't go upside down on us all.

[jukebox]

Dont know if anyone knows but throughout the day on radio WM they usually have Ben Rich (BBC Weather guy) on every hour or so to give in depth updates and advice on any bad weather. If you can bear Ed Doolan for a few hours ( yeah I know it aint great listening to old far*s whingeing lol) its probably the best source of bbc info if you cant get to a computer

[snowmadchrisuk]

I should also mention that anywhere between 1-3mm of any snow that falls won't count towards any settling stuff.

Well According to your map Leicestershire isn't in the high risk zone , unyet all the Weather agency's have Leicestershire as the Highest risk area.

[Hailsowen]

Well According to your map Leicestershire isn't in the high risk zone , unyet all the Weather agency's have Leicestershire as the Highest risk area.

That map mearly shows the total amount of rainfall, not any risk or probability of snow.

Edited February 17, 2010 by Hailsowen

[Costa Del Fal]

That map mearly shows the total amount of rainfall, not any risk or probability of snow.

How did you get the total accumulation map?

Edited February 17, 2010 by Blizzards

[damianslaw]

Much as many have stated will depend on the timing of the precipitation and its intensity as to whether there is widespread snowfall settling at lower levels over the midlands.

Higher ground will fare best, the Cotswolds should do well out of this. Peak District will get a fair dose later on if the precipitation remains heavy.

It could be a bit of a hit and miss affair, likewise it could be a significant snow event in some spots with major urban areas such as Birmingham at risk of temporary disruption.

[Phil UK]

Its nice to see the Midlands regional discussion thread as the busiest one for a change!

Yep, Last year, the South East... This year... MIDLAAAAAAAAANNNDS!!!!

And Nick2702... I can't afford another PC breakdown! Cost me £682 as it is!

Anyway... 6th and 7th January 2010 images...

Snowman of the Year! Well... Many a decent snowman of the year thinking about it!!)

Phil.

Edited February 17, 2010 by Phil UK

[Hailsowen]

How did you get the total accumulation map?

Map - Google Maps

Colours/Key - Met Office 'Invent'

Actual thing - Me.

[Costa Del Fal]

Map - Google Maps

Colours/Key - Met Office 'Invent'

Actual thing - Me.

:lol:

[conor123]

There's the odd random flake of snow coming down (about 3-4 a minute :lol: ) in the fog at the moment here in Telford.

[kold weather]

Its nice to see the Midlands regional discussion thread as the busiest one for a change!

Yep though its a SE person that has probably posted the most in this thread :lol:

weather09, I think profiles look much the same as today to be honest, IE very marginal during afternoon hours and probably at times the wrong side. The precip may well be a little more potent then today which will of course help but then temps tonight won't probably fall as far away as they did last night so whilst some factors are a little better, others are somewhat marginal still.

Mind you gotta love these marginal events, even more so when your area hasn't got a hope in hell (such as the SE!)

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS Nudging things a touch further West perhaps? Still would be a good outcome here. :lol:

EDIT: If anything it just delays things a little which would be good for any marginality issues here.

Edited February 17, 2010 by Blizzards

[Costa Del Fal]

18z GFS very similar overall, maybe just a touch better in terms of those a bit further west seeing some action too. Based on this run the map i made earlier would see little change imo.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks like 18Z has moved it west? lets hope so, but I still feel it will be marginal