Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[johnholmes]

I've just posted this in my local Yorks etc thread and its certainly appropriate for this thread-the most likely area in fact for snow-already occurring for some.

Will it snow this evening and overnight?

How to try and work this out

1 Follow the radar-make a plot with a piece of clear plastic over the pc screen-mark off the precip movement each 2 hours. Then draw a line of its western and eastern edges. Are you within those lines?

2 2 If you are then proceed, if not enjoy other peoples snow!

3 Proceed to this and I make no apology for posting it-it DOES work and is fun using with YOU working out for yourself rather than asking-will it snow where I live. The link is

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/

4 Height above sea level will increase your prob of snow-in this situation the temperature will probably only fall about half the rate usually quoted which is 3C per 1000ft. However, mod or heavier precip will have the effect of lowering the zero isotherm, called evaporative cooling, by about the same amount-so swings and round abouts to some degree.

Enjoy the output.

Finally as well as the suggestion at 1. Check the NAE and GFS output, copy and print their respective precip-snow charts, and compare-they will very probably be different but will give you the best idea of how the models see the precip occurring.

[A.J]

Maybe you are too far northwest nick, nevermind just come to warwickshire especially south of the region and enjoy some sledging on some hills like burton dassert for example they are getting pasted i've heard

I think Nick & I should be ok for this afternoon/evening.......That wrap-around that Darren mentioned is going to have to come back this way as it moves NE/ENE. That can only mean possibly substantial snowfall........ I hope!

[Eugene]

Coventry weather station hasn't been taking readings since Dec 9th, its 1C in church lawford and 2C in coleshill and birmingham

Wed 09 Dec 11:209°C / 48°F - Wed 09 Dec 10:509°C / 48°F - Wed 09 Dec 10:208°C / 46°F - Wed 09 Dec 09:508°C / 46°F

[stewfox]

14:11 is the time as I post!

And people are writing the event off. I never saw anyone forecast the main event now or even significant snow this early on!

Yes this constant its all over type stuff is silly

The main event hast started yet

[Bobby]

Here in S. Wales there's ~4 inches on the mountain a 20 minute walk away from me, piles of the stuff up there. But that's 400m or so, looks like 300-350m is the snowline for proper accumulations here so I think a most places in Midlands will struggle to see lying snow, air should turn colder later though so better chance for all then. But don't your hopes too high up.

[Tom D]

It's now properly heavy snow, big flakes, settling on all surfaces. Feels cold now too and the temperature is probably falling. WOOHOO!

[Serendipity]

No it's not over. Read my earlier posts, the ground here was sodden and the snow went to rain and back. Now we have settling snow everywhere which I would never have imagined. Even the very wet roads are getting covered.

[kar999]

I've just posted this in my local Yorks etc thread and its certainly appropriate for this thread-the most likely area in fact for snow-already occurring for some.

Will it snow this evening and overnight?......

Many thanks John. As ever, a sensible, practical and educational post.

You forgot to add just one small point... "... and dont forget to look out of your window and check you nearest lampost!"

Thnaks again.

[XENA]

just starting to snow here

[PolarWarsaw]

We now have moderate rain and puddle forming. Event over for me anyway. I hate this local profile.

[azores92]

sean dutton (2.57 bbc forecast)

Edited February 18, 2010 by azores92

[drgl]

Had light snow/rain/snow/wet snow here for about an hour now! Looking good for later??

[adi1477]

this is amazin considerin how wet the roads were its coverin so fast and comin down so so heavy

[shiver]

sean dutton (2.57 bbc forecast)

what did he say??

[Serendipity]

Hope this will work! This is about 20 mins ago... bear in mind the snow is patchy as my children are making snowballs!

Don't click on it, it comes up huge and you can see our crappy shed too well

Edited February 18, 2010 by Serendipity

[Higher Ground]

Winter wonderland - temp finally went below freezing about half an hour ago.

Been treading water with 2-3cm of snow on top of Beacon Hill (similar to yesterday - seems that the snow up until half an hour ago almost exactly topped up the existing snow as it melted).

Was interesting half an hour ago to see a clear snow line half-way down the golf course - at about 240m or 800 feet altitude. This means that most of of the sledging run should have a nice icy base!

Shame that snow is back to just light/moderate, but seems there's plenty more to come?!

[weirpig]

drizzle rain here in Burton Hope its snowing more when i get back home in Telford

[Nick L]

Intermittent sleet flurries here now, so excited a little bit of wee came out

[basnowdon]

Strange, reports of snow all around Birmingham (North, south, and east of) but in Sutton Coldfield it is still raining terribly - no signs of even sleet let alone snow.

Just spoken to somebody on their way from Cambs and they are having it bad there apparently, he was quite suprised when I said it was raining here.

[Tom D]

This is Oadby, Leicester a few moments ago.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Some sizeable snowflakes falling and still going as strong as diamond.

Edit: @Tommyd1258: Nice picture. Looks very heavy that snow.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[Nick L]

Strange, reports of snow all around Birmingham (North, south, and east of) but in Sutton Coldfield it is still raining terribly - no signs of even sleet let alone snow.

Just spoken to somebody on their way from Cambs and they are having it bad there apparently, he was quite suprised when I said it was raining here.

Not terribly far from Sutton Coldfield myself, nothing here either, strange.

[SteveElbows]

After hours of rain/sleet/snow mix on and off in Nuneaton, in the last 10 minutes its turned to heavier snow which is now settling on grass.

[chapmanraven]

Heavy snow and its sticking even on the wet surfaces

The temp has dropped to 0.4c

Big flakes and so many coming down so fast

[fordy]

Well its been all snow here since the front arrived about 12.30pm, But struggled to settle even during some heavier bursts. In the last half hour its started to really come down thick, 50p sized flakes, some of the heaviest snow ive seen and its started to settle quite redily due to the pure intensity of the stuff, amazing.

Edited February 18, 2010 by fordy