Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[andymusic]

GFS 18z has flip flopped once again and saturday mornings snow is now in the bin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! mmmmmmmmmmmm ! may be - may be not - it might bring it back again - have to keep an eye on the models tomorrow - next huge snowfall looks like sunday night (going with meto warning) and stalled or slow moving front (large in size) from sunday night all the way through monday - I'd say a definite get your supplies in before then type of snowfall cause this time it'll start over night - better time to get a foot hold - only one slight fly in the ointment - there may be a little rain in the day sunday beforehand as temps increase slightly making the ground a little wet before this one starts - but once it gets a grip it looks likely to really deliver. And once again the cold air will really be dragged in behind this front also

Tuesday night is looking punishing for us too - wow - a battleground low coming straight up from the south - and a nasty looking bugger he is too - lots of heavy snow I think - a bit far out yet - but could be nasty again!

Edited February 18, 2010 by andymusic

[andymusic]

Monday morning and midday

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Looking at the latest NAE and it shows the risk of wintry showers over W & N Wales tomorrow:

http://expert.weathe...021906_1818.gif

http://expert.weathe...021912_1818.gif

http://expert.weathe...021918_1818.gif

They should come a little further inland i think on that NW flow.

Upper air temps are good around -5C/-6C and dewpoints are shown at -0C

http://expert.weathe...021912_1818.gif

http://expert.weathe...021912_1818.gif

So a good chance of them showers in the N and W being of Snow.

Also the GFS goes away from the idea of snow for Saturday but the NAE sticks to this idea:

http://expert.weathe...022012_1818.gif < NAE

http://charts.netwea...8/42/ukprec.png < GFS

So will see what the models show tomorrow morning about that.

[kold weather]

Yeah the NAE still fairly keen for an area of snow to come in, probably not that much snow about, I'd guess something between 2-4Cms. Its gotta be said there are some big ole disagreements though as to exactly what will happen with this system, the 18z GFS ensembles are every bit as divded still...

[J10]

Looking at the latest NAE and it shows the risk of wintry showers over W & N Wales tomorrow:

http://expert.weathe...021906_1818.gif

http://expert.weathe...021912_1818.gif

http://expert.weathe...021918_1818.gif

They should come a little further inland i think on that NW flow.

Upper air temps are good around -5C/-6C and dewpoints are shown at -0C

http://expert.weathe...021912_1818.gif

http://expert.weathe...021912_1818.gif

So a good chance of them showers in the N and W being of Snow.

Also the GFS goes away from the idea of snow for Saturday but the NAE sticks to this idea:

http://expert.weathe...022012_1818.gif < NAE

http://charts.netwea...8/42/ukprec.png < GFS

So will see what the models show tomorrow morning about that.

Excellent summary there. NAE looks very good for Saturday for us, and probably less marginal than compared to today. Also a good chance of some wintriness for tomorrow.

As for next week, I wouldn't look that far ahead. Could easily be heavy rain for next week, or heavy snow, as the cold mild border is very small, and this can make for interesting situations. Despite the obvious potential for next week, certainly not worth getting excited yet as the tuns will change frequently before now and then.

Yeah the NAE still fairly keen for an area of snow to come in, probably not that much snow about, I'd guess something between 2-4Cms. Its gotta be said there are some big ole disagreements though as to exactly what will happen with this system, the 18z GFS ensembles are every bit as divded still...

Good to see your contributions in here.

[Marcus_surfer]

Any snow falling in Pembrokeshire?

Edited February 19, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[Cymro]

Bit of a streamer setting up over Pembs and West Carmarthenshire also southern Ceredigion will be intresting to see if anyone from these areas are reporting snow?

[Cymro]

Well just has i said have a woken to a white landscape dusting of snow

[andymusic]

Well just has i said have a woken to a white landscape dusting of snow

Nice one Adam You got some snow!!!!!!!!!!

[Cymro]

Nice one Adam You got some snow!!!!!!!!!!

Had snow yesterday too mind. I do live 250m abs on the edge of the beacons.

[andymusic]

Unfortunately the GFS doesn't seem to want to know now about tomorrow morning's snow + the meto have no advisories out either sooooooo I'm assuming right now that this potential snow event has gone in the bin. Sunday night into Monday is still looking potentially good (except for the rise in temps in the day sunday and rain) - right now in weather terms that's quite a long way off - GFS 00z is also showing further lows tracking into cold air over Wales next week almost like a wash rinse repeat (shampoo style) - so there seems to be lots to play for right now with this set up

Had snow yesterday too mind. I do live 250m abs on the edge of the beacons.

But you have a white landscape now (slight accumulations), we live almost at the same height then mate - my 3 - 4 inches of snow is now frozen outside - I'm wondering though what the sun will do to it today?????????

We have some red sky this morning

and the saying goes

Red sky in the morning - shepherd's warning!

Those snow showers seem to be piling into Wales this morning in the west - you may well have a very good day today for snow Adam

Here's a bit more BBC news BIAS reporting for you - we obviously didn't have any snow yesterday - by the looks of the report

It makes their BBC news internet headlines for the UK

http://news.bbc.co.u...and/8523268.stm

and something topical being considered for cardiff bay - an indoor ski centre - snowdome

http://news.bbc.co.u...les/8521839.stm

Getting light here now and what a beautiful sight snow on the ground is - snow as far as the eye can see - beautiful

Edited February 19, 2010 by andymusic

[Marcus_surfer]

Very frosty morning with red sky to the west.

[andymusic]

Very frosty morning with red sky to the west.

totally agree - it's beautiful sunrise - red sun - wow!

[DeepSnow]

Its a frosty morning and i did notice a red sky in the clouds to the west with the sunrise! still -1.5C, any chance we will get some snow showers today?

[andymusic]

Its a frosty morning and i did notice a red sky in the clouds to the west with the sunrise! still -1.5C, any chance we will get some snow showers today?

lots of them about in west wales - one or two might get through - GFS seems to favour later this afternoon for showers further into east wales

[Cymro]

Snowing quite heavy here atm and settlinng but accumilaton isnt what it could be with the current tempreatures its been snowing here for 20minutes snow a pretty good shower although according to the radar its not that potent? those to the south eas of me enjoy

Edited February 19, 2010 by adamjones416

[andymusic]

This is interesting about tomorrows "event" - the meto have no warnings for it but:-

here's the forecast

and GFS has dumped this idea altogether in it's last two modeling runs

Saturday:

Rain, sleet or snow moves across southern England and Wales during the day. Remaining drier elsewhere with only isolated showers, some of which may be wintry.

Updated: 0334 on Fri 19 Feb 2010

[Cymro]

Tomorrow afternoon is looking quite good for Wales IMO away from the immediate coast the met office being bullish again I would say. Anywhere away from the coast should see settling snow tomorrow, have settled snow here now but the temperature is above zero so as the day progresses and the showers come in it may become a little more marginal than it currently is but overnight and into tomorrow afternoon see good for most places in Wales to get something noteworthy. We also seem in prime position this time for the snow events, that will change it could move south could move north nothing is set in stone, let's just wait and see .

[soupsurfer7]

Hey all

We have a few cm's of snow here in Ceredigion =) Clouds look very black and the wind is light so the showers seem very long lasting. Temperature is 0-2C here (keeps changing).

[Cymro]

Hey all

We have a few cm's of snow here in Ceredigion =) Clouds look very black and the wind is light so the showers seem very long lasting. Temperature is 0-2C here (keeps changing).

We had about 2cm here and yes i noticed that they are very slow moving due to the wind i suppose not much of it, this is good but could someone clear something up for me on the radar it shows them heading south east then direct east then back south east why is this? its asif theri travelling like t his

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Edited February 19, 2010 by adamjones416

[andymusic]

We had about 2cm here and yes i noticed that they are very slow moving due to the wind i suppose not much of it, this is good but could someone clear something up for me on the radar it shows them heading south east then direct east then back south east why is this? its asif theri travelling like t his

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They are moving in an arc shape Adam

[Cymro]

They are moving in an arc shape Adam

Rite so that shower to the north of me will not hit me?

[andymusic]

Rite so that shower to the north of me will not hit me?

I don't think so Adam - it's moving north of you and in a south easterly direction - there is some showery activity just behind it though that might go over you - showers don't seem very strong at the moment though - GFS has them really pepping up later on today - so may be we'll fair better then

[Marcus_surfer]

No showers here which were forecast and also much cloudier now than expected :unsure:

[andymusic]

No showers here which were forecast and also much cloudier now than expected

showers should pep up later - they don't seem to have the "legs" at the moment