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Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

A hail few hail showers earlier but thats about it.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Haha no andy you miss understood tongue.gif i was on ab out attaching a file but ive done it now as you can see smile.gif thanks anyway.

Really heavy snow - huge flakes - amazing - we're getting pasted again - where's this coming from - there was nothing on radar just now

I thought you meant your avatar - which has nothing in it Adam

White out conditionscold.gif

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

Haha no not the avatar , and oh lucky glorious sunshine here the sun hitting the window actually feels quite pleasant,

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

Disagreement between the NAE and GFS is present still with regards to how far north this front will come.

Looking at the NAE and you can see this feature moving in to West Wales during the morning and then progressing Eastwards:

http://expert.weathe...022006_1912.gif

http://expert.weathe...022012_1912.gif

Looking at the GFS 12Z and you can see that area of precipitation at the same time much further South:

http://charts.netwea...2/18/ukprec.png

http://charts.netwea...2/24/ukprec.png

On the NAE conditions for Snow seem quite favourable

http://expert.weathe...022009_1912.gif < Upper air temps at or below -5C

http://expert.weathe...022009_1912.gif < Dew points below freezing

http://expert.weathe...022009_1912.gif < Surface temps around 0C higher towards Western and Northen coasts.

So it would seem if the NAE is correct a period of Snow is likely for S & SE Wales perhaps a mix on the far western coasts where temperatures are a touch higher.

Met Office forecast update below:

This Evening and Tonight:

A cold night, with sleet or snow showers, particularly in the northwest, and a risk of rain or snow in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire by dawn. Frost and ice likely in places, with light southwesterly winds. Minimum temperature -2 °C.

Saturday:

An area of rain, sleet and possibly snow across southern parts should clear to the east during the morning. Otherwise mostly dry with bright spells and isolated snow showers. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Updated: 1536 on Fri 19 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

So you can see the precipitation risk for tomorrow is certainly not written out their forecast. The GFS and UKMO however do seem to have it further South so im waiting to see the updates later because its open to change.

Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)
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Posted
  • Location: Yr Wyddgrug, Gogledd Cymru (350m ASL)
  • Location: Yr Wyddgrug, Gogledd Cymru (350m ASL)

Snow on and off all day here. Stuck under the Irish Sea streamer.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

So either rain or snow into the SW by dawn, if the front does brush us i don't think it will be of rain at that time of the night

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

just wondering any chance of a covering in west carmarthenshire/ east pembrokshire some time soon?

had one snow shower early morning here today

atm grey cloud

Edited by snowmadsam
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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

temp 6.3C and cloud overhead but sun either side of it, its just like one long strip over the house lol a bit strange but just had a bit of snow and soft hail, still a few flakes blowing around but small ones!

Edit:ok well even though its now 6.1c and slowly dropping, we have lightish sleet

Edit(again) lol: now its sleety soft hail and 6C and just got heavy

I wish it would make up its MIND lol now its very heavy snow and soft hail

Edited by Deepsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Disagreement between the NAE and GFS is present still with regards to how far north this front will come.

Looking at the NAE and you can see this feature moving in to West Wales during the morning and then progressing Eastwards:

http://expert.weathe...022006_1912.gif

http://expert.weathe...022012_1912.gif

Looking at the GFS 12Z and you can see that area of precipitation at the same time much further South:

http://charts.netwea...2/18/ukprec.png

http://charts.netwea...2/24/ukprec.png

On the NAE conditions for Snow seem quite favourable

http://expert.weathe...022009_1912.gif < Upper air temps at or below -5C

http://expert.weathe...022009_1912.gif < Dew points below freezing

http://expert.weathe...022009_1912.gif < Surface temps around 0C higher towards Western and Northen coasts.

So it would seem if the NAE is correct a period of Snow is likely for S & SE Wales perhaps a mix on the far western coasts where temperatures are a touch higher.

Met Office forecast update below:

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

So you can see the precipitation risk for tomorrow is certainly not written out their forecast. The GFS and UKMO however do seem to have it further South so im waiting to see the updates later because its open to change.

So - we have no clue what's gonna happen then - a split decision - we need some bets on this I think! - snow or no snow!

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

So either rain or snow into the SW by dawn, if the front does brush us i don't think it will be of rain at that time of the night

Totally agree should have air temp of around 0 perfect for snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

lol any of you guys who are on the flintshire hills, look over towards Wirral and weep (for us).

I can see the Flintshire hills all white, lucky sods.

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

tomorrow is a very exciting situation personally ill go with NAE has performed well with convection when we had our snow showers and likewise today so my bets are on a little snow but nothing substantial.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

So is it looking good for snow tomorrow morning?

50/50 cause the models are not coping well with this one Jay - a couple are saying yes and a couple are saying no - this one will come down to the wire of nowcasting/radar

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Which model would you side with mate?

I'm not really a betting man but I've found the GFS (even though it's resolution isn't brilliant) to be quite accurate within a 24 - 36 hour precip period - back in Jan when we had the first really big snows and we had all those complicated lows floating around each other the GFS got it bang on for us - it was amazing how it did that! - even though I'm betting against the meto I'm gonna go with the GFS I think

It's only showing some sporadic showers for around 6pm tomorrow afternoon

otherwise it's clear!!!!!!!!

sunday morning looks interesting

rart_10022106_1912.gif?cd21aaa226b4e87c25573c746eaded57

and the next real chance of big snows comes sunday night into monday

rart_10022206_1912.gif?5e3ebd44bf1f36c765c7fe2ef4090951

rart_10022212_1912.gif?a2927b921332d0fac6795a66b70dc54f

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Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

Watched the sky news weather on interactive earlier and they showed a front coming over us in tomorrow and said it would be of rain/sleet and snow! so dunno which it will be but hope its cold enough for snow! still got sleet here.

Edited by Deepsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

And as if by magic - another snow shower appears

belting it down again now - another top updrinks.gif

I think I'm going nuts - this snow shower we are having - it's one of them stealth snow showers - it's not showing up on radar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited by andymusic
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Posted
  • Location: Deiniolen, 223m, N. Wales
  • Location: Deiniolen, 223m, N. Wales

Just a question - Snow this morning was of big, fat, lumpy snowflakes - This afternoon snow has turned more hard like chippings falling - Not hail but snow grainy type!? Why is that? With no snowflakes.....!!!?:lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly (140m ASL)
  • Location: Caerphilly (140m ASL)

Which direction are your showers coming from / going to?

After your last mention I went looking out the window. but nothing.

There were some stealth clouds flowing down Caerphilly mountain (from Cardiff way) and now there's some grey clouds coming over.

I swear you have your own micro climate on the Graigerhorn.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Just a question - Snow this morning was of big, fat, lumpy snowflakes - This afternoon snow has turned more hard like chippings falling - Not hail but snow grainy type!? Why is that? With no snowflakes.....!!!?wacko.gif

temp difference I think - big fat flakes are a combination of a lot of smaller ones - wetter - so temp not so cold - grainy snow falls with colder temps - that's the theory i think

Which direction are your showers coming from / going to?

After your last mention I went looking out the window. but nothing.

There were some stealth clouds flowing down Caerphilly mountain (from Cardiff way) and now there's some grey clouds coming over.

I swear you have your own micro climate on the Graigerhorn.

Senghenydd mountain just had a whiteout too and this whiteout is coming your way

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

hi just wondering any snow comin for carms/pembs border?

Sam

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