Model Chat And Moods

[grab my graupel]

A thread where you may express your delight, or have a good old moan if you wish, at the current Model output/Weather pattern

Also, this area can be used for any general model chat that isn't suitable for the Model output discussion thread

Please continue

[West Sussex Kate]

I don't know it's 2:30am I'm checking charts, maps and everything....wondering why I'm not asleep when tomorrow will probably be another one of them days lol! Where the snow heads away from us and we are left up set again.

But that's the weather - not knowing if it will work out or not is half the fun!!

[Bluebreezer54]

My guess is its pretty much a case of forget the model runs, maps and charts for the next 48 hours or so, and look out the window. I dont mean any disrespect at all to the model watchers here by saying that, it just looks to me like a forecasters nightmare.

[MR EXTREMES]

excellent breakdown by ian f if only the snow gods favoured the south or i say right south lol.

still great to see what happens this week even with my absolute dissapointment.

cant wait for spring and summer now and next winter hopefull a intresting storm watching season this year.

sorry of topic gl to those who are gonna get a pasting this week.:)

[Frosty.]

i think reality will soon set in Matt

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html

the latter part of the week certainly on the cool side but unlikely to be cold for anything notable.

It still looks very cold and wintry in the north, it might be less cold in the south by then but we don't all live in southern england and there is wintry potential for areas north of the midlands..yes there are areas north of the midlands which hardly ever get mentioned on here. :lol:

[Frosty.]

we have similar issues in Wales - thinking of starting a METO CYMRU - but I think we are all the same - we are all looking for that snowfest for our own backyards

I completely agree with you, this is the model discussion thread covering the whole of the british isles but I could swear it's the southern england imby thread sometimes. The models so far today look very wintry for northern britain at the very least with less cold air slowly encroaching from the south in the extended period, that is realistic.

[Matt12]

It still looks very cold and wintry in the north, it might be less cold in the south by then but we don't all live in southern england and there is wintry potential for areas north of the midlands..yes there are areas north of the midlands which hardly ever get mentioned on here. :lol:

True, but if you remember me (and I think bluearmy too) said that Northern areas (particularly Northern England/Scotland) may be in for some snow events in the next week. When I talked about people having too high expectations for the probably reality, I explicitly stated that I was referring to the South-East/Southern England. Our best hope is probably tomorrow.

[The PIT]

Looks like the cold is going too stick around for a while yet. Don't worry southerners GFS has it moving back south later on. Quite a remarkable run of cool/cold weather this winter.

[Matt12]

there was no imbyism in matts post nor mine. matt referred to posters in the south and southeast getting excited for no reason and i linked to the london ecm ens to back this up. please read the posts before making comments. i hope all of you in the north get buried in 6 foot drifts. (not literally!) we were just pointing out that the south is no longer in the firing line.

Yeah, I second that. I hope Northern Britain does get loads of snow too. For us south-easterners, I'd rather have milder temps than cold rain (as seems most likely), but that doesn't mean I don't want snow for areas that are cold enough. XD

[angel23]

god why is every1 going at each other again it seems really bad in here at the min . for the past few weeks now the weather has been very difficult to forecast it changes so quick its more a case of now cast!! Every1 is entitled to their own opinion but i do wish every1 wud lighten up a bit we r here to discuss ALL the weather for the whole contry!!!!! and the models of corse

Edited February 20, 2010 by angel23

[Kay]

I have not been on here for a few days coz of the bickering over the North v South devide! I can only say that if there is a bias for the south(which I am not saying there is) then that surely has nothing to do with the people who are on the forum but, just the that there are more people for the south that happen to be following this forum!!! lets just all play nicely please!!!

[Matt12]

I have not been on here for a few days coz of the bickering over the North v South devide! I can only say that if there is a bias for the south(which I am not saying there is) then that surely has nothing to do with the people who are on the forum but, just the that there are more people for the south that happen to be following this forum!!! lets just all play nicely please!!!

Yes, I think I speak on behalf of all southerners in hoping that Northerners get a decent dumping of snow (as with other areas of the UK away from the South/South-East).

I agree that the majority of posters probably are more interested in Southern areas though - simply because of the demographics of the UK (i.e. the population down south is much bigger than in Northern areas, particularly down here in the South-East). That doesn't mean that Southerners aren't interested in the weather further north though, nor does it mean that they don't want northerners to enjoy any snow.

Edited February 20, 2010 by Matt12

[StewieEatWorld]

Gotta feel for people in the far south and possibly far north of the UK. Could be a long while till snow hits these places

[MR EXTREMES]

i sopose soon where be arguing over how big the daffs are lol.

springs coming so make the most of what you get up until wednesday because things will be very much the wrong side of marginal and most likely the last of real winter for this year.

im from the south and im happy to see what happens for the rest of the country but i think some will be very happy and other rather dissapointed and i think the overall margin of error is something that needs looking at closely.

anyway enjoy because spring is just round the corner.

[Derp Patrol]

well take a little time to filter through 3 days or more of posts and then come back and tell me why ive stated my opion which i might add are as valued as any.

ive said cold snowy the futher north you are until mid week when things look as though there going to becaome more average with wet and windy spells of weather.

and thats been the trend for the last few days or more but its looking like a slow evolution.

I agree.. I think this long cold spell is finally coming to an end. I can't wait for some milder conditions, even if it is just average!

[kent]

I don't see how this gfs run can be anywhere near right because it would make a mockery of the met o update 5 hours ago. This is a problem the gfs has with it's 4 runs a day which are nearly always very different but not at T+96 / T+120 hours but if it's right I will eat my hat, if I had one.

You can borrow my baseball cap lol. I agree these model outputs are about as useless as a chocolate teapot.

[La Bise]

Well, I had my fix of snow on the Lakeland fells today...like being in the Alps up there!

[snowingman]

*** WORST FORECAST OF ALL TIME ***

Look - please read this as the model output area is the best location as it just shows how awful models can be !!

Went to bed last night - forecast of a perhaps a little light snow in morning... woke up to find 8 inches - which apparently fell between 3 and 6 this morning.

The heaviest snow fall in over 20 years.. Its like winter wonderland outside..

AND TOTALLY NOT FORECAST

Was it forecast by anything... nope!!!

So models... how fickle....

And if this week is anything to go by.. large dumpings of the white stuff will happen in the most unexpected of places...

... CHECK out the NEWS.... this must appear as a complete MISFORECAST by the met office... (ps I see they issued a weather warning this morning!! ho ho ho)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yeah, they are pretty useless at snow events for areas away from England and Wales IMO, I can recall the exact same on the 23rd December when even the forecaster at the time of the news reporting it didn't mention it. A bit of a joke really.

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN120-21.GIF?21-17

Happy days

[Harsh Climate]

Dont be suckered into believing the gfs 12z, its a MILD OUTLIAR!

[robert]

Just put my little forecast for the coming week or so by viewing the current models and using my own techniques for anyone interested.

Wintry mix from now until mid week with some large accumulations. Friday onwards there will be some quite remarkable accumulations of snow for Scotland and the Dundee area.

The South East of the UK will see up to or near 15 inch or more with Bedford and the surrounding counties seeing large accumulations.

The midlands will also see large accumulations. Many parts of south west UK will not be spared!

Looking beyond February have a date for a weather event which showed up and will play out from around the 14 to 16th March.

[TEITS]

Interesting post Robert although the general synoptic pattern doesn't really suit such widespread snow events affecting the whole of the UK. For this we would require a cold pool across the whole of the UK which isn't what the model output suggests.

[Bolton67]

The South East of the UK will see up to or near 15 inch or more

Oh, by the way Robert, please show us your 12 inches of snow that fell today in Stoke

Edited February 21, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[snowray]

Just put my little forecast for the coming week or so by viewing the current models and using my own techniques for anyone interested.

Wintry mix from now until mid week with some large accumulations. Friday onwards there will be some quite remarkable accumulations of snow for Scotland and the Dundee area.

The South East of the UK will see up to or near 15 inch or more with Bedford and the surrounding counties seeing large accumulations.

The midlands will also see large accumulations. Many parts of south west UK will not be spared!

Looking beyond February have a date for a weather event which showed up and will play out from around the 14 to 16th March.

Hi Robert

Are you feeling better, saw a post the other day when you said you had to go to hospital with blackouts was it? Did you realy get a foot of snow then, or was it a guesstimate?

Well I would love to see some snow in SE London, it always goes a bit North of here, or South, or East Kent.

Fingers crossed for the SE, and the rest of the Uk, but want a bit of the white stuff in Erith for a change this time.

Regards

Snowray

Oh, by the way Robert, please show us your 12 inches of snow that fell today in Stoke

Well I'd love to have 15 inches don't you worry!

Edited February 21, 2010 by snowray