Model Chat And Moods

[LomondSnowstorm]

YAAAAY SNOW COLD SNOW ETC !!!!!

Ok, that's my ramp for the day, carry on with reality...

[slb97]

Well we're having a heavy rain shower here, the first of many for this coming week, and it's depressing to say the least. Tomorrow morning will be diabolical especially as schools are back and our M27 motorway grinds to a halt every morning (and that's when its dry and no accidents!) so here's hoping I go to bed and wake up next Monday instead!

[snowray]

Well we're having a heavy rain shower here, the first of many for this coming week, and it's depressing to say the least. Tomorrow morning will be diabolical especially as schools are back and our M27 motorway grinds to a halt every morning (and that's when its dry and no accidents!) so here's hoping I go to bed and wake up next Monday instead!

As soon as I recognised that this week was going to just produce lots and lots of RAIN, I thought I know, try and get a cheep deal away somewhere warm, not Madeira thankfully, or go on a cruise.

But am still here so looks like I'm going to have to slog it out.

[Thundery wintry showers]

All is not yet lost here in Norfolk- the GFS 18Z shows a number of marginal snow events for here over the coming week, and just a 100 mile shift would bring the south coast into the firing line. The precise track of the lows is important.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I must admit to a preference for those cold showery regimes (like 17th December to 9th January inclusive) over these frontal battleground setups. The latter tend to be rather more marginal and if it isn't snowy it is more likely to be dull cold and damp rather than bright and frosty, and the "snow zone" is always restricted to the poleward flank of any frontal system.

Still, we did get some snow out of this system in Norwich. I have a feeling that the elevated global temperatures are taking their toll on this setup which might have been rather less marginal 20-30 years ago- but even then, 1C cooler would still mean the issue of snowfalls melting then refreezing giving multiple layers of ice on the ground.

The pattern looks like becoming rather more messy towards the end of the week so maybe more variety in the weather instead of the persistent cloud cover.

[Tom D]

The latest models scream to me one thing - cold. It may not be cold enough for snow everywhere but it will definitely be cold enough to keep the February CET below 3c.

People cannot rule out snow for a location based on what happened today; snow much further south than anticipated. And just because today's snow was further south than forecasted does not mean tomorrow's won't be further north than currently expected. The track of these lows is very tough to accurately forecast at more than 24 hours out and it just happens to be that we've got a handful in a few days.

[John Snow]

Remarkable how quiet this place is

The Northern half of Britain is on the brink of the biggest snowfalls recorded in this country this winter and no one is posting

[blitzen]

I know! Have been up since 7am this morning searching for comments about this and no one is around! Where is everyone?

[cheshire snow]

Remarkable how quiet this place is

The Northern half of Britain is on the brink of the biggest snowfalls recorded in this country this winter and no one is posting

John

UKMO state 10cm on high ground at most,even for Scotland,i think they recorded more in Jan

C.S

[toggerob]

Despite having a op yesterday im quite looking forward to this event. I'll be catching up with the Models & Thoughts this morning, shame I wont be able to venture out into the possible 10cm deep snow accumulations just yet.

[robert]

Heavy snow here at the moment, cheshire staffordshire border.

[Climate Man]

Its a long way off but this winter has shown what many believed could not happen-a cold winter in the UK as a whole, snowy for some-so what GFS and to an extent ECMWF suggest might come off although probably not as extreme as the 06z charts above suggest.

I would like to nominate the GFS 0600 as the chart of the winter

[SteveB]

06z FI is a thing of beauty, what a way to end Winter.

[sandstorm2]

06z FI is a thing of beauty, what a way to end Winter.

Took the words out of my mouth, absolutely magnificent! IT WILL HAPPEN. IT MUST HAPPEN, sorry for shouting.

SS2

[cuckoo]

Great to find so many enthusiasts for the cold weather.

Almost everyone i know has been moaning about the weather and complaining about the snow saying how 'awful' and 'terrible' it has been. Louise Lear on the BBC national forecast even went so far as to say 'this cold weather is all becoming a bit tiresome isn't it'.

If these charts on the 06Z actually verified it would be an amazing end to a great winter from an IMBY perspective. Even if they don't verify it looks like plenty in Scotland have already had a grandstand finish. Fingers crossed!

Edited February 25, 2010 by cuckoo

[Thundery wintry showers]

Our media has always made out that the vast majority of people hate snow, and the BBC national forecasts (with the exception of Countryfile) are no longer the escape hatch from this that they used to be, so the Louise Lear comment does not surprise me.

Interestingly I still see people out and about saying how lovely the snow is and how they hope for more, though less so than when it first started up. It tends mainly to be people who don't do a lot of travelling in it, who have an interest in the meteorology of it and/or who haven't "grown up" (in the "being serious" sense). I do live and work in a relaxed academic environment with a significant number of weather enthusiasts around, but still, I must say I'm surprised by how many of the people I know haven't got completely sick of it yet.

I would certainly welcome an easterly with a high-latitude source in the coming week- could do with getting my sledge out again, as I've only had two brief opportunities since I acquired it. But even if we don't get it, the sunnier drier outlook for earlier next week looks likely to come off and particularly after the "driech" spell of weather in southern England recently, it will be very welcome.

[La Bise]

For those of us who enjoy their fell-walking, cold and/or snow is not an issue. Cold=frozen mud=clean hike and snow turns the most mundane of hikes into an adventure. Not every hiker enjoys it, of course, but once you're hooked on winter conditions hiking, you are hooked for life. In my opinion, a frozen, clear day, up hills loaded with snow is unbeatable.

[cold snap]

Thanks Nick, I'll just have to keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best.

Itching to find out is there any Snow involved in this low acording to any model.

I had a look and it and i really dont know

To much mild air wraped into it i think

Edited February 25, 2010 by cold snap

[Freezing-Point]

One thing is still for sure..... The trend is for cold weather to continue with the possibility of much colder interludes. This winter has set the new benchmark for the colder winter cycle which we are now in.

[Jason T]

I would like to say that there are some on here i value and would like to thank since i am a newbie, that is SNOWMAN,TWS,COOLING.C,NICK SUSSEX,ANDY M,TIETS,badb657,IAN FERGUSON,ICE B,KOLD W,YAMKIN, BUT MOST OF ALL JOHN HOLMES who in DISSAPOINTMENT was disgusted in the way the MODEL thread was being USED ie PLAY GROUND RUBBISH (I CAN RUN FASTER THAN YOU).

From viewing since registration there still appears to be a north/south split, WHAT A LOAD OF RUBBISH. I hope the MODS do not remove this, We all live on this little ISLAND the WEATHER AND SYSTEMS can be unpredictable THROUGHOUT.

MODELS AND RUNS, well at this time of year when we are coming to view of (BRITISH SUMMER TIME) SURELY models can be FALSE to the claims we see through the DAY and the WEEK.

I am no where near as experianced as those stated above, BUT i hope from viewing and reading i will be through the experiance of those bove.

So manythanks, Hopefully MARCH will FINISH what DECEMBER started as JH said WE have the DADDY of EASTERLYS starting.

Lets see what this SEVERE

[chris78]

Posted Today, 01:20

As we head into March, these situations tend to have low dewpoints - where you can easily get snow despite air temperatures well above freezing. But any real settling is limited to overnight and morning periods generally in England. The minute the sun pokes out, any lying snow of a thickness less than about 3 inches will clear off in a jiffy. The snow overnight Thursday/Friday last week made a good attempt to hold out, and it was getting topped up until Tuesday. In sheltered areas there was 5 inches, in areas exposed to not even sun, a transient cover of an inch or nowt. But the uppers weren't terribly cold. Only cold cloudly conditions can maintain snow cover on low ground in England as we get into March, because the thaw by day will be rapid. Great to see -10C 850s possibly, but these will still see daytime maximas of +3 or a bit more. You'd need to have quite a lot of snow on the ground not to see it reduced to nill during daytime.

Seen some surprises before a la Sunday/Monday. I remember something like this starting off as a rain event but went on to give a foot of wet snow in the early 90s in North Yorks. The BBC forecasts just said heavy rain, and outside of the Radio Cleveland area it was never mentioned in the outside world. Nominally it couldn't happen until now because the SSTs were too high. So I would suggest a swift bit of nowcasting on Sunday to see whether something might be on the cards. The Met Office seem to have thought so on their clicky clicky forecast weather bits for the past 3 days, but haven't put out any warnings, despite have the dubious heavy snow cloud directly over this southern part of the East Midlands.

I had a client in from Vienna yesterday, it was even warmer there - upto 13C. So The cold air in this easterly needs to make quite a sudden impact.

I saw this post in the model chat its opening summed up how I feel about cold/snow in march. While everyone has different reasons for wanting the weather they want I find it surprising that so many members still want cold and snow, even heavy snow wil be slush in minutes, I had really thought people would be ready for spring by now????

[TEITS]

I saw this post in the model chat its opening summed up how I feel about cold/snow in march. While everyone has different reasons for wanting the weather they want I find it surprising that so many members still want cold and snow, even heavy snow wil be slush in minutes, I had really thought people would be ready for spring by now????

Im personally ready for spring but March still has the potential for plenty of snow events, infact snow is more common in March than Dec.

As for snow turning to slush to be honest it isn't as straight forward as this. A cover of wet snow due to marginal conditions will thaw quiet quickly due to the strength of the sun. However a heavy overnight fall of dry powdery snow due to very low upper temps will thaw alot slower especially if this has been compacted down.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think this is the time of year when the "move on its spring now" generates a lot of delusional confirmation bias unfortunately. Snow can stick around for upwards of a few days, in March, in sunshine, if the airmass is cold enough (maxes no more than 3 or 4C) and there is a fairly sizeable snowpack on the ground (say, upwards of 2 inches) that has been "consolidated" by an overnight frost. In March 1970 it stuck around for over a week in sunshine in many southern areas. More recently, it stuck around for a few days in Cleadon in early March 2001 and also in Norfolk, and in 2006 it stuck around for a while in many areas- 2008 too in parts of East Anglia.

Settling snow is not limited to overnight and morning periods. Easter 2008 in Tyneside had frequent accumulations during the showers, melting in the sunny intervals in between- March 1995 was also particularly notable for repeated occurrences of this freeze-thaw process. The 2nd March 2006 had significant accumulations from afternoon snow showers.

I saw this post in the model chat its opening summed up how I feel about cold/snow in march. While everyone has different reasons for wanting the weather they want I find it surprising that so many members still want cold and snow, even heavy snow wil be slush in minutes, I had really thought people would be ready for spring by now????

I think some of us enjoy those "clean" Arctic regimes with large cumulonimbus cells, bright sunshine and heavy wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow, even if they do not provide significant lasting accumulations. Also, enjoying cold and snow and wanting spring are not mutually exclusive unless you apply a definition of "spring" that would result in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 1997 not seeing "spring" arrive until mid to late May! Edit: and, come to think of it, 2005 and possibly 2006.

Edited February 27, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers

[Eugene]

I saw this post in the model chat its opening summed up how I feel about cold/snow in march. While everyone has different reasons for wanting the weather they want I find it surprising that so many members still want cold and snow, even heavy snow wil be slush in minutes, I had really thought people would be ready for spring by now????

Ummm i think most people are discussing the models if they show cold we can't hide from that fact if they were showing very mild then we would be discussing it in there, you can only discuss in model discussion what the models are showing and that is a return to cold and maybe snowfall.

In a strong cold easterly with limited sunshine it wouldn't melt away from the coasts even in early to mid March, ice days are still possible in southern UK and GFS 06Z for next saturday would produce one.

I find it strange people obsessing over spring warmth in late February into early March as its very rare this early in the season, abit like wanting proper cold in early September.

So it's not a case of are people ready for spring but is the weather ready for it.

[Guest]

I think this is the time of year when the "move on its spring now" generates a lot of delusional confirmation bias unfortunately. Snow can stick around for upwards of a few days, in March, in sunshine, if the airmass is cold enough (maxes no more than 3 or 4C) and there is a fairly sizeable snowpack on the ground (say, upwards of 2 inches) that has been "consolidated" by an overnight frost. In March 1970 it stuck around for over a week in sunshine in many southern areas. More recently, it stuck around for a few days in Cleadon in early March 2001 and also in Norfolk, and in 2006 it stuck around for a while in many areas- 2008 too in parts of East Anglia.

Totally agree with you TWS. In fact, we can test this theory across much of Scotland from Monday onwards since there is good snow cover and a forecast of a relatively cold airmass and it will be March I have quite a few inches of snow and it will not be gone in minutes if the sun comes out. Well, maybe in 2,000 minutes....