Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Carry on here Wales!

Frontal system is developing now in the Irish Sea, taking a little longer then was progged by last nights models but thats not really a big deal for your region really as it should be decently developed by the time it reaches Wales.

[J10]

Just a reminder that the radar echoes over Ireland can be a little suspect.

Seems to be quite of activity over there though.

Just looking at the GFS 12HZ, this is pretty much on target, with the heavier stuff pushing east overnight.

An interesting night beckons.

[andymusic]

Just a reminder that the radar echoes over Ireland can be a little suspect.

Seems to be quite of activity over there though.

I only ever take notice of the ones over the irish sea

[BranMan]

Looking forward to night time snow events because the sun doesn't help daytime...too much thawing going on...

Not sure if cwmbran will see much tonight, maybe just a dusting but will certainly be keeping a close eye on all the radars alter....Monday is looking odd for us here seeing as theres a weather warning out for newport, torfaen and monmouthshire giving 7cms of fresh snow...unusual amount...why not say 5 - 10 cm of snow possible - sounds a little suspect to me especially after last nights promises failed to give snow accross Wales.

I don't know what to make of the downgrades, the upgrades the donwgrades.....just look at the window and keep watching the radars each night, should give us all a good idea whats on the way.

Currently 0.4C here in Upper Cwmbran, clear no wind stars out. 150m asl ( West Pontnewydd up the mountainside )

[Marcus_surfer]

Yes very interesting potential for many parts of Wales tonight, higher ground seems best to get some pretty good snowfall amounts. I wouldnt be suprised if some higher areas saw 10-15cm across Mid and North Wales by morning.

[andymusic]

Looking forward to night time snow events because the sun doesn't help daytime...too much thawing going on...

Not sure if cwmbran will see much tonight, maybe just a dusting but will certainly be keeping a close eye on all the radars alter....Monday is looking odd for us here seeing as theres a weather warning out for newport, torfaen and monmouthshire giving 7cms of fresh snow...unusual amount...why not say 5 - 10 cm of snow possible - sounds a little suspect to me especially after last nights promises failed to give snow accross Wales.

I don't know what to make of the downgrades, the upgrades the donwgrades.....just look at the window and keep watching the radars each night, should give us all a good idea whats on the way.

Currently 0.4C here in Upper Cwmbran, clear no wind stars out. 150m asl ( West Pontnewydd up the mountainside )

it's becoming a nightmare to forecast because of the effect the cold air is having on these incoming fronts from the west and south west - none of the models can work out where they are gonna go - so the meto are having a "guess" right now - might miss you altogether orrrrrrrrrrr it might move further north and more of wales will be involved - nowcasting and radar oh and "head out of the window" may well be the best tools

[Stevetynant]

Hi Jk

must admit it was 2 degrees on the car thermometer too awkward (lazy) to get to my outdoor one on the garden shed. (have really enjoyed this forum this winter - thinking of investing in a weather station but there seems to be a lot of range in terms of price so gonna have to do a bit of research before I invest) - anyhows - from what I can see on the rain today radar - showers just coming into the tip of West Wales - doesn't look anything there thats going to cause persistant snow between 1am and 10 am tomorrow unless things develop a hell of a lot in the next few hours (the lookout of the radar I'm looking at is pretty restricted in my view but I am pretty new to all this so what do I know)

[J10]

Yes very interesting potential for many parts of Wales tonight, higher ground seems best to get some pretty good snowfall amounts. I wouldnt be suprised if some higher areas saw 10-15cm across Mid and North Wales by morning.

Looking at the radar and the GFS/NMM some decent amounts of precipitation seems likely, 10-15cm is not out of the question over hills.

Also the higher the precipiation the greater the chance of snow as well.

[nomad098]

I just done a search and found my altitude 10m so if it can snow here in the center of Cardiff at that height

it will snow anywhere

[keithlucky]

Hi Jk

must admit it was 2 degrees on the car thermometer too awkward (lazy) to get to my outdoor one on the garden shed. (have really enjoyed this forum this winter - thinking of investing in a weather station but there seems to be a lot of range in terms of price so gonna have to do a bit of research before I invest) - anyhows - from what I can see on the rain today radar - showers just coming into the tip of West Wales - doesn't look anything there thats going to cause persistant snow between 1am and 10 am tomorrow unless things develop a hell of a lot in the next few hours (the lookout of the radar I'm looking at is pretty restricted in my view but I am pretty new to all this so what do I know)

Still quite a few behind the front ,but i love the way they are intensifying , plenty of yellows in them .

[g1blet]

Yes very interesting potential for many parts of Wales tonight, higher ground seems best to get some pretty good snowfall amounts. I wouldnt be suprised if some higher areas saw 10-15cm across Mid and North Wales by morning.

you in dunvant tonight Marcus? are we in line for any action?

[Marcus_surfer]

you in dunvant tonight Marcus? are we in line for any action?

Yes, Possibly, i would think a wintry mix here at the moment, slight accumulations and ice seem likely.

[matty lfc]

-2 according to the car and quite misty looking up here.

Im expecting at least a dusting by morning.

[andymusic]

don't forget - we await your reports as this front lumbers in folks

[Jayfromcardiff]

don't forget - we await your reports as this front lumbers in folks

Andy will this front develop because at the moment it looks rather "thin".

[andymusic]

Andy will this front develop because at the moment it looks rather "thin".

I don't think it's gonna be like the one we had in January Jay

but it will produce snow + there is a chance as it goes up the bristol channel and heads for cardiff it may develope some more

plus the initial modeling of this system by the gfs was that mid and north wales were likely to have a better deal out of this one than south wales

but it's now nowcasting - watch the radar and we'll see how this develops

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[Jayfromcardiff]

I don't think it's gonna be like the one we had in January Jay

but it will produce snow + there is a chance as it goes up the bristol channel and heads for cardiff it may develope some more

plus the initial modeling of this system by the gfs was that mid and north wales were likely to have a better deal out of this one than south wales

but it's now nowcasting - watch the radar and we'll see how this develops

If i get an inch i'll be happy, do you think it's possible?

[andymusic]

sorry to be selfish but is that a nice line of snow i can see developing now and heading for around bridgend and then passing on up to me - that would give me my 4 inches - 10cms +

If i get an inch i'll be happy, do you think it's possible?

it's quite possible

Edited February 20, 2010 by andymusic

[matty lfc]

Anyone know of a decent radar site?

[andymusic]

Anyone know of a decent radar site?

net weather - subscription only

raintoday.co.uk

met office site

[matty lfc]

net weather - subscription only

raintoday.co.uk

met office site

Thanks Andy.

[Icequeen]

It's all gone quiet , is everyone staring at the lamposts already;-). Would love to see some more snow just to cap of a great winter.

[pyrotech]

net weather - subscription only

raintoday.co.uk

met office site

floodwarn on the snow page

[andymusic]

GFS 18z - isn't that nice - GFS has given south wales it's snow back again for monday morning - showing it'll be more than just the small corner of se wales as the meto are warning about - more of south wales will see more snow

quiet anticipation

[ourson]

Radar showing showers in Pembs. Is there anybody out there?

Cold in Cardiff atm. Barrage showing 1.0c dew point. Not good.

Also showing 2.8c temp - don't beleive that for a moment.