Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[Bolton67]

The only 2 counties not included for wednesday advisories for us East Midlanders are Northamptonshire and Leicestershire.

Typical!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Which ever way it turns out, it looks like all (or many) of us will be seeing two snow events from the next three days.

[Serendipity]

Do you not think it is all quite marginal?

[PolarWarsaw]

Got around and inch and a half overnight. Tommorows looking like a near miss for me, although i did get 3CM from thursdays "close call" so i shant moan until the event is over. Tuesday looks interesting, possible the most intersting for my location anyway. Wednesday is north and south of here.

[camperstron]

Do you not think it is all quite marginal?

I do I'm afraid! It just feels too warm. Any daytime ppn I feel is likely to fall as rain/sleet.

[Tom D]

The only 2 counties not included for wednesday advisories for us East Midlanders are Northamptonshire and Leicestershire.

Typical!!

It's obvious they think the snow risk is going to be further north by then, however there' still some confusion over the track of the system, so I wouldn't rule out further snow of some kind, even if it's just wet or sleety, further south than currently anticipated.

Having just looked at the forecast, I'd say Wednesday might be snow turning to rain, whilst Thursday could see rain turning again to snow.

Still, between now and then there is potentially two days of prolongued snowfall to get past, and how often can you say that in the UK...

[azores92]

in response to cyclonic happinesses post on the former thread, yes it does all seem a bit too specific, considering the fact the central midlands has just about as much chance as any other midlands county on wednesday. why not play it safe and include all of the region? , anyway, the 06z nae has been a step in the wrong direction for a snowy day tomorrow, showing the front as just clipping the region before moving south again. hopefully we can step forward by the time the 12z comes round. anyway, if the warnings are to be believed, 2 to 5 cms will accumulate, so a fairly meagre fall tbf. given the ever strengthening sun, the snow will likely rapidly thaw, if the sun comes out to play.

[BlueHedgehog074]

@Serendipity:

I think Mondays event could be quite marginal in that it may struggle to reach far North, and at the same time, the further South you are the more likely that the precipitation will be of a sleety mix/rain.

Now looking at it, the HPA dam's look as though they could be a little high for snow tommorrow. But I think it will depend how far North the low will go and whether enough could air will be pulled in from the North-East.

[Serendipity]

I thought last night was our best shot for the next few days and really it was quite a letdown. We did get snow but it very quickly thawed and being quite wet snow, took away some of our existing snow cover too.

We now have some left in the garden and in the surrounding fields, but it is much less than yesterday.

[TonyH]

Did Richard of Stoke post any pics of his foot of snow yet?

[MKN]

Did Richard of Stoke post any pics of his foot of snow yet?

Richard of stoke probably not, robert of stoke is still searching google to find pics from a time when stoke had that much snow.

[TonyH]

Richard of stoke probably not, robert of stoke is still searching google to find pics from a time when stoke had that much snow.

Oh that was his name! Dad said an inch fell in Coventry anyway.

[MKN]

Well the best outcome is the current NMM pushing decent amounts of precip north with a fair bit tending to be snow.

The gfs probably only has about 5% of people recieving snow in the very heavy precip but still shows decent potential for many in the midlands.

The NAE is the worst outcome and id be suprised if anyone really had much more than 1-2cms if that were to verify.

Overall theres no cross model agreement so anything that happens tommorow other than the fact an area of precip will cross the southern areas of the uk possibly pushing as far north as derbyshire with some seeing snow as far south as stratford maybe northampton is all we can say. My gut feeling atm is that if we dont see snow till after 9am then i wouldnt hold out much hope of it settling. The NAE had the band today reaching my area between 9-12 in reality was long gone by 9 so its not perfect

[MKN]

There was four inches or so, I know us blokes like to exaggerate but nobody can pass four inches off as twelve !

Still, it was nice to actually get MORE than the METO were suggesting, a first time for everything

How much is left? Been mainly cloudy for much of the day but snow melted everywhere bar the north facing areas that held the snow prior to this mornings snow. Probably 4-5cms left in some areas.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's been melting in the sun but still plenty left here in my rural location.

Fair bit of altitude up there in Keele aswell Ian; well compared to Crewe anyway

[Convection currents]

About 10cm of snow fell here last night

A lot of it has melted though on paths and roads etc and there's loads of standing water. In the shade and in the park nearby not much has melted and there's still about 6-8cm of lying snow there.

[MKN]

Got a feeling it will be a bit busier in here soon

[Harsh Climate]

5cm here no melt.. wahoooooo! lets hope the 12z gives northern england another pasting

[loopydreamer]

arghhhh this is not good for my location from now on! im too far south! IMBY what falls is just going to sleety for the rest of the week

[mackerel sky]

No idea how much snow fell here, I was at a friends wedding near Walsall, but after a rather lengthy lie in due to a sore head, there was about 1.5 inches left on the car windscreen. Here in the shade there is still about 2-3 inches, but where the sun has got at it largely thawed.

Now looking like an interesting rush hour drive tomorrow, flipping schools back as well. Might be a sodding nightmare.

[andy_leics22]

Ok that is an absolute shocker from the 12z for tomorrow mornings possible snow event for the Midlands to be honest.

[Serendipity]

I think expecting nothing is the best bet then anything is a bonus! For me though, I truly believe sleet or rain. It's beena lovely day today though, very little snow left this afternoon, just patches on the lawn and in a few sheltered spots. What IS left is the snow from last week though, not this morning which was, quite honestly, pathetic.

[Supercell]

Ok that is an absolute shocker from the 12z for tomorrow mornings possible snow event for the Midlands to be honest.

It's a ridiculous correction, and more in line with the NAE this morning. That's the trouble with these set ups, no model / forecaster has a clue until the event is a nowcast.

[MKN]

Ok that is an absolute shocker from the 12z for tomorrow mornings possible snow event for the Midlands to be honest.

The gfs 12z is unbelievable when compared to the 00z. 200mile change in 12 hours.

We need to hope this plays into our hands later on

Which it doesnt. This could be the end of winter i think.