Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

Snowing here. Bloody ill with the flu lol.

[joo]

Nothing at all in Nantgarw. There were a few flakes in Caerphilly as I left and the cars coming down from Abertridwr were a little bit covered on their windscreens.

Red Dragon's "weather man" was quoting off the MetOffice saying "up to 7cm of snow for Caerphilly and Newport" !!!!

[andymusic]

Hi folks - sorry about last night - had to go to the A&E Royal Glamorgan last night with my elbow - I get gout every now and then and I had a real problem with my right elbow - it had come up like a large tennis ball - I'm fine today though - phew!

Well, as I was driving back from the hospital (3 in the morning) - it was snowing a little - but last night's effort didn't amount to much in the end - our next possible snows look like tuesday afternoon/evening it seems - well, I'll try and stay well for that.

[valley blue_501]

Why is there a weather warning for S E Wales for heavy snow for today? issued this morning?

How much are we looking at getting tomorrow? and where is it going to hit?

[andymusic]

Why is there a weather warning for S E Wales for heavy snow for today? issued this morning?

How much are we looking at getting tomorrow? and where is it going to hit?

meto mistake

front will be moving up from the south tomorrow - most of wales will get some snow late afternoon/evening - but - unfortunately it's gonna then turn to rain

[Jayfromcardiff]

meto mistake

front will be moving up from the south tomorrow - most of wales will get some snow late afternoon/evening - but - unfortunately it's gonna then turn to rain

Hi mate, hope your ok now i'm off college with the flu, think i caught it off my dad:(.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Jayfromcardiff

[Jamie.]

It snowed last night but it came down like bits of dust so the accumulation by the morning was something of 1mm.

All melted before midday.

[andymusic]

Hi mate, hope your ok now i'm off college with the flu, think i caught it off my dad:(.

yeah i'm fine - it was just a bit scary at first as I'd never had it like that in my elbow before - and the elbow swelled up over a matter of about 2 - 3 hours - you watch that flu Jay - it can really drag you down

It snowed last night but it came down like bits of dust so the accumulation by the morning was something of 1mm.

All melted before midday.

looks like the main feature missed us - so I think that means the GFS wins again - what we had was the dregs - meto and bbc and nae wrong again - although the nae did suggest it wasn't gonna be much - only light ppn

Edited February 22, 2010 by andymusic

[Marcus_surfer]

Not even a drop of rain today, very nice hazy milky sunshine but feels cold.

Tonight looks like snow for inland areas, rain for the coast.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[andymusic]

Not even a drop of rain today, very night hazy milky sunshine but feels cold

quite a nasty wind chill

[Jayfromcardiff]

quite a nasty wind chill

Interesting tomorrow mate, BBC said snow for places like Newport etc. Welsh weather on itv, "things becoming increasingly interesting with snow on the way"

Edited February 22, 2010 by Jayfromcardiff

[andy_leics22]

Hi folks - sorry about last night - had to go to the A&E Royal Glamorgan last night with my elbow - I get gout every now and then and I had a real problem with my right elbow - it had come up like a large tennis ball - I'm fine today though - phew!

Well, as I was driving back from the hospital (3 in the morning) - it was snowing a little - but last night's effort didn't amount to much in the end - our next possible snows look like tuesday afternoon/evening it seems - well, I'll try and stay well for that.

Glad you are ok now

Probably too much computer usage

[andymusic]

Interesting tomorrow mate, BBC said snow for places like Newport etc. Welsh weather on itv, "things becoming increasingly interesting with snow on the way"

quite a few have been banging on about this week being the "snowiest" - we shall see

GFS 12z about to come so let's see what she wants to give us

Glad you are ok now

Probably too much computer usage

well - I thought it might be RSI myself - not from the computer - but I did something for a friend last week and titled 160 music backing tracks on his mindisc machine (old technology I know), but he's a bit frightened of laptops which most singers are using these days - to put the titles in involved me in a lot of button pushing and twisting over about 5 - 6 hours - it was a marathon session - I thought maybe I'd aggravated my right elbow doing that - but once they'd done a blood test on me last night and worked out my uric acid level was through the roof (acid that causes gout) it all fell into place. It just hadn't happened on that part of my body before

OK FOLKS

SNOWFEST ALERT

The -5 cold air uppers are now being pulled further south than progged giving more of us a chance tomorrow to get in on the snowfest about to hit us

The GFS 12z is telling me that from about 12 midday tomorrow another front from the south will make it's way into all of Wales/Cymru after another very cold/frosty night - this one WILL deliver by the looks of things - we will see a front of mostly snow come in from midday tomorrow and last till the following day - mid morning - by which temps may increase and turn it to rain - but again we'll see about that as with this set up it's out of the reliable time frame

SNOWFEST is on the way I think

Still got quite a bit of snow left up here - waiting for the next lot I expect (and NO I'm not sitting in the cafe on Snowdonia and NO I'm not a mountain goat)

Edited February 22, 2010 by andymusic

[Cymro]

quite a few have been banging on about this week being the "snowiest" - we shall see

GFS 12z about to come so let's see what she wants to give us

well - I thought it might be RSI myself - not from the computer - but I did something for a friend last week and titled 160 music backing tracks on his mindisc machine (old technology I know), but he's a bit frightened of laptops which most singers are using these days - to put the titles in involved me in a lot of button pushing and twisting over about 5 - 6 hours - it was a marathon session - I thought maybe I'd aggravated my right elbow doing that - but once they'd done a blood test on me last night and worked out my uric acid level was through the roof (acid that causes gout) it all fell into place. It just hadn't happened on that part of my body before

OK FOLKS

SNOWFEST ALERT

The -5 cold air uppers are now being pulled further south than progged giving more of us a chance tomorrow to get in on the snowfest about to hit us

The GFS 12z is telling me that from about 12 midday tomorrow another front from the south will make it's way into all of Wales/Cymru after another very cold/frosty night - this one WILL deliver by the looks of things - we will see a front of mostly snow come in from midday tomorrow and last till the following day - mid morning - by which temps may increase and turn it to rain - but again we'll see about that as with this set up it's out of the reliable time frame

SNOWFEST is on the way I think

Still got quite a bit of snow left up here - waiting for the next lot I expect (and NO I'm not sitting in the cafe on Snowdonia and NO I'm not a mountain goat)

In all fairness I agree with you here andy either you're becoming less snow biased and seeing it for what it is or im becoming more of a snow ramper who knows, But I reckon you've called that good mate, as it stands it look slike this will be a snow event anywhere off the immediate south coast of Wales, (Western Coast will be colder therefore falling snow is quite likely, settling who knows) However the threat for it to turn to rain is there but in situation like this with snow cover there tends to be more of a micro climate effect i,e frost hollows, rural areas regardless of altitudes keeping it as snow due to surface temps with cites and urban areas having a messy mix unless they're fairly hight lying,

[andymusic]

In all fairness I agree with you here andy either you're becoming less snow biased and seeing it for what it is or im becoming more of a snow ramper who knows, But I reckon you've called that good mate, as it stands it look slike this will be a snow event anywhere off the immediate south coast of Wales, (Western Coast will be colder therefore falling snow is quite likely, settling who knows) However the threat for it to turn to rain is there but in situation like this with snow cover there tends to be more of a micro climate effect i,e frost hollows, rural areas regardless of altitudes keeping it as snow due to surface temps with cites and urban areas having a messy mix unless they're fairly hight lying,

Thankyou Adam

[Jayfromcardiff]

Thankyou Adam

So, you think it will snow?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

I think there will be some snow in South Wales but over the higher ground (200m or so) as the front runs into colder air.

Though inland parts of SE Wales stand a better chance as dewpoints and upper air temps are lower when the front moves in.

http://expert.weathe...022318_2212.gif

http://expert.weathe...022318_2212.gif < Dewpoints

http://expert.weathe...022318_2212.gif <Upper air temps

Mid and North Wales will have most of the snow where the colder air is more difficult to push away:

http://expert.weathe...022400_2212.gif

Met Office Updated forecast for Wales:

This Evening and Tonight:

This evening and tonight will be dry with clear spells. This will allow a widespread sharp frost with patchy freezing fog forming, which could be dense in places. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Tuesday:

Patchy frost and fog will gradually clear. Rain will spread into the south later in the morning, which will turn to sleet or snow as it pushes further north. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Updated: 1514 on Mon 22 Feb 2010

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[andymusic]

GFS 12z - long way off in weather terms but come next sunday - the GFS is showing another very snowy day and then temps down to very low amounts - the low with high winds screams across wales from west to east - starting out as rain and then progressively turning into snow saturday night to sunday because it drags the cold -5 uppers again down across our country - this set up is really suiting us - as this movement of the cold air is happening exclusively to us really (western side of the country) and further north - but - we get a lot of the snow right now cause we also get the fronts piling into the cold air - you need both the cold air and the lows tro get the snow - of course this sunday event may all change qonce we get near the day - things seem to be only nailed on right now within about a 24 - 36 hour period I'd guess

So, you think it will snow?

Yep - close to the coast when it starts in the day/midday tomorrow it may start as rain/sleet - but as the sun goes down and the heavier stuff comes in we are pretty much guaranteed that all of us should get snow

this is the meto advisory

Wales: Blaenau Gwent Caerphilly Carmarthenshire Ceredigion Conwy Denbighshire Flintshire Gwynedd Merthyr Tydfil Monmouthshire Powys Rhondda Cynon Taff Torfaen Wrexham

Heavy Snow Tue 23 Feb

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of England and Wales. Rain moving northwards will turn to snow giving further falls of 2 to 5 cm, with perhaps as much as 10cm in places, especially on high ground.

Issued at: 1038 Mon 22 Feb

Edited February 22, 2010 by andymusic

[andymusic]

So, you think it will snow?

Jay - I've had another look again for cardiff and considering the meto advice I'm not so sure Cardiff will be guaranteed the snow - but - here's the thing - the GFS got this morning's set up bang on - short term you can hardly beat it - the meto and the BBC late last night were scrambling to change their forecasts to the way the GFS saw it at the last minute - made them look silly really - the GFS was right all along - this is twice now in two very marginal set ups recently that the GFS model has been on the money - so with that in mind - the GFS has moved the cold upper air -5 (upgraded) further south in the 12z today - it may upgrade it again tonight in the 18z and bring the colder air further south - who knows - this will mean the upper air and dewpoints will be more conducive to bring snow closer to the coasts in Wales and therefore places like Cardiff and Swansea.

Edited February 22, 2010 by andymusic

[Jayfromcardiff]

Jay - I've had another look again for cardiff and considering the meto advice I'm not so sure Cardiff will be guaranteed the snow - but - here's the thing - the GFS got this morning's set up bang on - short term you can hardly beat it - the meto and the BBC late last night were scrambling to change their forecasts to the way the GFS saw it at the last minute - made it look silly really - the GFS was right all along - this is twice now in two very marginal set ups recently that the GFS model has been on the money - so with that in mind - the GFS has moved the cold upper air -5 (upgraded) further south in the 12z today - it may upgrade it again tonight in the 18z and bring the colder air further south - who knows - this will mean the upper air and dewpoints will be more conducive to bring snow closer to the coasts in Wales and therefore places like Cardiff and Swansea.

I'm only 30m asl, hopefully they get it wrong and it snows.

[keithlucky]

I agree jade ssems that when the front arrives its again the wrong side of the marginal,and the precipation to light even for andy elavation ,this front will drag in slightly milder air as it moves north so im afraid andy you see rain.We could see some snow towards the end of the week when we draw a nnwest wind.

Edited February 22, 2010 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

I agree jade ssems that when the front arrives its again the wrong side of the marginal,and the precipation to light even for andy elavation ,this front will drag in slightly milder air as it moves north so im afraid andy you see rain.

don't think i will up here keith - colder uppers are getting further south and once the sun has gone down and the heavier stuff in the front gets here it'll be snow - i'm confident of that - backed up by the meto's initial advisory also - but I'd rather trust the GFS

6pm tomorrow afternoon

[Jayfromcardiff]

Dew point already -0.5 here.

Edited February 22, 2010 by grab my graupel
If you are going to make one lined replies, please don't quote the whole post

[CRACKPOT]

I take it from the quietness in here it looks rather disappointing for the rest of the week and next few days in particular?

The local forecasts are now showing snow risk gone except for Northern Wales? I did say yesterday that the milder air is making incursions further and further inland and this appears to be ocurring. I thought we were due some more snow but cannot see it.

JK

[andymusic]

I take it from the quietness in here it looks rather disappointing for the rest of the week and next few days in particular?

The local forecasts are now showing snow risk gone except for Northern Wales? I did say yesterday that the milder air is making incursions further and further inland and this appears to be ocurring. I thought we were due some more snow but cannot see it.

JK

There will be snow tomorrow mate - it will though turn back to rain at some point but when that will be - anybody's guess - after that - yes we may have a couple of days of cold rain - possibly up until the weekend when the cold -5 uppers will come back south and snow will then return - you in Bargoed should have no problem seeing snow tomorrow

only quiet in here cause we've said all we need to say about tomorrow - frosty and freezing cold tonight and then expect the snow reports to come in thick and fast tomorrow afternoonish when the front arrives

Edited February 22, 2010 by andymusic