Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Please continue

[Imp81]

hi guys now i can see on model output discussion etc that people are concerned about the GFS 18z output, now am i right in thinking the vast majority of the time when i've viewed it that people rate the GFS as the less accurate of the big 3 (but useful for spotting trends and longer range projections), so i don't get the panic as surely the ECM and UKMO etc are showing much more realistic projections i say this as obviously what the GFS is showing probably has certain effects on the events still with warnings on meto site for this week in our area so i just find it baffling when in previous weeks people have dismissed it and gone with ECM and UKMO, anyway that aside had a thaw to an extent here tho the snow has clung on gamely to grass and paths generally esp outside of the city without heat of the buildings and now a frost is setting in nicely to freeze the remaining 3-4cms no work for me tomorrow

[grab my graupel]

hi guys now i can see on model output discussion etc that people are concerned about the GFS 18z output, now am i right in thinking the vast majority of the time when i've viewed it that people rate the GFS as the less accurate of the big 3 (but useful for spotting trends and longer range projections), so i don't get the panic as surely the ECM and UKMO etc are showing much more realistic projections i say this as obviously what the GFS is showing probably has certain effects on the events still with warnings on meto site for this week in our area so i just find it baffling when in previous weeks people have dismissed it and gone with ECM and UKMO, anyway that aside had a thaw to an extent here tho the snow has clung on gamely to grass and paths generally esp outside of the city without heat of the buildings and now a frost is setting in nicely to freeze the remaining 3-4cms no work for me tomorrow

Well, the GFS certainly shouldn't be ignored, but as you say, it's always better to view the models collectively rather than panic about one individual run.

[Schnee]

I'd personally wait till Monday & Tuesday's runs before drawing a conclusion.

[Imp81]

Well, the GFS certainly shouldn't be ignored, but as you say, it's always better to view the models collectively rather than panic about one individual run.

i always enjoy reading the excitement or as often the depressive views on that thread however just seemed bizarre when only days ago the 18z was dismissed often anyway, i appreciate i'm a newbie btw but as you say and some other posters read between the lines of the 3 as theres still plenty of time for things to change at the rate they're flopping and flipping and the meto are sticking with their guns so hopefully yet more falls for us this week be it 1-2cm or the mad figures projected by "Stoke on trent Robert"

[Craigers]

6hours work on a massive 10ft snow monster

so tired! me and my mate did all this! hope you all like

[grab my graupel]

6hours work on a massive 10ft snow monster

so tired! me and my mate did all this! hope you all like

That's brilliant mate, glad you've been out enjoying the snow :lol:

[Craigers]

That's brilliant mate, glad you've been out enjoying the snow

body is absolutely killing me! 6hours work out that haha might be on tomorrows look north :lol:

[grab my graupel]

body is absolutely killing me! 6hours work out that haha might be on tomorrows look north

Definitely worth it, though, Craig. It's been quite a memorable winter, and those sort of pictures are great to look back on.

I'll watch out for it on Look North tomorrow

[Craigers]

Definitely worth it, though, Craig. It's been quite a memorable winter, and those sort of pictures are great to look back on.

I'll watch out for it on Look North tomorrow

best winter of my life time! this year its like every 5cm seems nothing now! such a big achievement this winter! can no longer say snowless doncaster haha

[pottyprof]

body is absolutely killing me! 6hours work out that haha might be on tomorrows look north

Absolutely fantastic Craig.. Will be looking out for it too.. :lol:

As people keep commenting, it's been an unbelievable Winter season for just about everyone, love it or hate it....

We've always commented that it always snows around my dad's birthday.. What a fantastic surprise he had Sunday morning..

[DiagonalRedLine]

6hours work on a massive 10ft snow monster

so tired! me and my mate did all this! hope you all like

I have to agree with grab my graupel and pottyprof. Those snow sculptures are extremely good, and the attention to detail is just incredible. I really like the look of the face, in particular; very beastly, yet cheery at the same time. I imagine the snow monster must be guarding the area and monitoring the weather.

In fact, with its very tough snow skin, no warm sunny weather will have a chance to melt this snow monster. This is why snow monsters have been known to survive a whole Summer without fully melting, although some of those have also hibernated during the Summer.

[Imp81]

6hours work on a massive 10ft snow monster :lol:

so tired! me and my mate did all this! hope you all like

Thats awesome, great work there mate heres hoping we get fresh fallls to rejuvinate him over the next week

[Harsh Climate]

Good GFS this morning, not perfect but good.

The last couple of runs had the lows/fronts pushing too far north wed-fri with scotland getting battered. Now its shifted further south again with northern most parts of england/border regions getting hammered . A little further south and we could be on the cusp of a major dumping!

Also note the operational run on the esembles wed-thu was very much on the mild side according to other perpetrations, meaning most overs arent as keen to push lows too far north resulting in uppers of between -5hpa and -8hpa

Look at the ukmo 00z, also very good, 100 miles further south and PERFFFFFECT...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

This is what were aiming for! SYNOPTIC HEAVEN!!!

So Good developements this morning, lets hope the 6z follows suit!

[Lewis]

Good GFS this morning, not perfect but good.

The last couple of runs had the lows/fronts pushing too far north wed-fri with scotland getting battered. Now its shifted further south again with northern most parts of england/border regions getting hammered . A little further south and we could be on the cusp of a major dumping!

Also note the operational run on the esembles wed-thu was very much on the mild side according to other perpetrations, meaning most overs arent as keen to push lows too far north resulting in uppers of between -5hpa and -8hpa

Look at the ukmo 00z, also very good, 100 miles further south and PERFFFFFECT...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

This is what were aiming for! SYNOPTIC HEAVEN!!!

So Good developements this morning, lets hope the 6z follows suit!

The GFS is rather poor actually.

One thing is yesterday you and 10123 was dismissing the fact that the GFS was wrong with the LP too far North and it should be South, so if you thought it was wrong then, because it shows all but a little shift South and i'm talking no difference for us accept for N Scotland and N Ireland, why would you be backing it now.

It's pointless if you have no faith in the models, instead of looking for what you want all the time and dismissing what you don't want to see.

[Harsh Climate]

The GFS is rather poor actually.

One thing is yesterday you and 10123 was dismissing the fact that the GFS was wrong with the LP too far North and it should be South, so if you thought it was wrong then, because it shows all but a little shift South and i'm talking no difference for us accept for N Scotland and N Ireland, why would you be backing it now.

It's pointless if you have no faith in the models, instead of looking for what you want all the time and dismissing what you don't want to see.

Here we go again......

No Lewis, Im only discussing what All models/data are showing not just a couple of gfs runs, like you are.

Youve allready come to a conclusion that wed/fri the low/lows will be too far north, whereas Im stating the possibility that it might be further south...

I cant believe you havent learnt your lesson allready regarding lows and how difficult they are to forecast 24 hours out, let alone 72hours.. todays low PRIME example..

I think its because you live in a poor place for getting snowfall, which you becoming rather downbeat about, so your just trying to write off our snow chances at the earliest chance

[Lewis]

Here we go again......

No Lewis, Im only discussing what All models/data are showing not just a couple of gfs runs, like you are.

Youve allready come to a conclusion that wed/fri the low/lows will be too far north, whereas Im stating the possibility that it might be further south...

I cant believe you havent learnt your lesson allready regarding lows and how difficult they are to forecast 24 hours out, let alone 72hours.. todays low PRIME example..

I think its because you live in a poor place for getting snowfall, which you becoming rather downbeat about, so your just trying to write off our snow chances at the earliest chance

Here we go again?

I'm sorry Jed but the models have consistantly showed the LP much further N. With the odd run thrown in showing the LP every so slightly further South. When looking at models and especially models ridden with low pressure systems, you need to look at the evolution of the low pressures on subsequent runs, for example where's the center situated, where does the LP track and pivot, you'll find that the GFS has been consistant with this.

It has nothing to do with me living in a poor place for getting snowfall, i'm not downbeat, and i'm not writing of your chances, i'm talking from my experience with these sypnotics. Of course it's only my view, if you chose not to listen that's fine by me.

I don't need to learn any lessons mate, i think you need to learn how to interpret the charts.

[Harsh Climate]

I don't need to learn any lessons mate, i think you need to learn how to interpret the charts.

lol lewis theres more models than just the gfs you know.

Look at my first post in the regional thread this morning, the ECM is showing brilliant synoptics (officially the number 1 model with highest verification stats), the ukmo over the last few days has been much better than the gfs...

Look im not saying the gfs is wrong, just that it might be. And untill its got back up from all the other models no conclusions should be made.

[Lewis]

lol lewis theres more models than just the gfs you know.

Look at my first post in the regional thread this morning, the ECM is showing brilliant synoptics (officially the number 1 model with highest verification stats), the ukmo over the last few days has been much better than the gfs...

Look im not saying the gfs is wrong, just that it might be. And untill its got back up from all the other models no conclusions should be made.

Of course there's more models than the GFS.

ECM = Long range

GFS = Short to medium range

UKMO = Human input and a mix from all models, 9 times out of 10 sat in the middle.

I'm backing the GFS and will continue to do so, it's been consistant there is no denying that. Precipitation, conditions, spot on all the time. Why would i back the UKMO and ECM when there's no agreement?

The GFS is really only the "full" model we can see, the ECM we don't and the UKMO well like i said is human input.

[Harsh Climate]

Of course there's more models than the GFS.

ECM = Long range

GFS = Short to medium range

UKMO = Human input and a mix from all models, 9 times out of 10 sat in the middle.

I'm backing the GFS and will continue to do so, it's been consistant there is no denying that. Precipitation, conditions, spot on all the time. Why would i back the UKMO and ECM when there's no agreement?

The GFS is really only the "full" model we can see, the ECM we don't and the UKMO well like i said is human input.

Thats were your wrong, the conditions/precipitation havent been spot on, only 24/30 hours ago they had the midlands under a blanket of snow today, completly wrong! Also they had places like oxford/reading around 7C with heavy rain, the truth is its been 0/1C with moderate/heavy snow..

Im not saying your definatly wrong lewis, it just seems like youve come to a conclusion and youve been trying to hammer it home without full model support gfs/ecm/ukmo without taking into account other possibilities.

Yes I know everything could go too far north, but this morning though there is plenty enough support do disagree with that (ecm/ukmo, 00z gfs esembles etc...) and in these very complex weather set-ups no one knows for certain what will happen. So to say something 72 hours away is DEFINATLY guna happen is obsurd

[Coast]

The tone of the posts in here is starting to become a little too confrontational. Please be respectful of other peoples ideas, views and opinions and keep things polite/civil thank you!

[Lewis]

Thats were your wrong, the conditions/precipitation havent been spot on, only 24/30 hours ago they had the midlands under a blanket of snow today, completly wrong! Also they had places like oxford/reading around 7C with heavy rain, the truth is its been 0/1C with moderate/heavy snow..

Im not saying your definatly wrong lewis, it just seems like youve come to a conclusion and youve been trying to hammer it home without full model support gfs/ecm/ukmo without taking into account other possibilities.

Yes I know everything could go too far north, but this morning though there is plenty enough support do disagree with that (ecm/ukmo, 00z gfs esembles etc...) and in these very complex weather set-ups no one knows for certain what will happen. So to say something 72 hours away is DEFINATLY guna happen is obsurd

I see where your coming from, but the GFS was never showing +0 to +5 upper 850's what is it mate.

We'll see how things pan out but i cannot see it happening.

lewis

The tone of the posts in here is starting to become a little too confrontational. Please be respectful of other peoples ideas, views and opinions and keep things polite/civil thank you!

No problem Coast

There's nothing too it, we are both just 2 guys that love their weather, and love to be right

[Harsh Climate]

I see where your coming from, but the GFS was never showing +0 to +5 upper 850's what is it mate.

We'll see how things pan out but i cannot see it happening.

lewis

No problem Coast

There's nothing too it, we are both just 2 guys that love their weather, and love to be right

To be fair lewis only last couple of gfs runs has shown +0 and +5 uppers. the 00z had no esemble support and we havent even seen the 06z esembles yet

Untill we have full agreement I wont be coming to any conclusions as anything at this stage is just guess work/speculation

No problem Coast

There's nothing too it, we are both just 2 guys that love their weather, and love to be right

I fully agree with that

[Lewis]

See the thing is aswell..

The gfs 06Z is a downgrade for Wednesday/Thursday, but medium to long term a lovely upgrade. We are no nearer/closer as to knowing whats going to happen. But it shows when 1 thing goes against, good things usually happen.

Ill call it glass half empty, i'm going to wait until tomorrows 18z before I make a full on conclusion although me thinks i'll be right haha.

[TEITS]

I wouldn't want to make a forecast for this week!

Basically during Tues night a band of snow will reach the midlands around midnight. This will move into this region during the early hrs. Now the confusion is where will this front stall because thats whats going to happen. At the moment I would say far N of England/S Scotland but this could be further N or S yet. I do believe there is a chance N Yorks could see this remain as snow but I doubt the models will shift this risk as far S as Lincs/S Yorks.

Beyond and although the snow risk could move N it looks as though colder air will return from the N as the LP finally clears E.