The Welsh Mild Weather Discussion Thread

[keithlucky]

could be as soon as St David's day - I've a recollection over quite a few St David's days gone by that snow has been a feature on a fair few of them - I'll check the GFS 18z this evening shortly to start as to the latest info for the weekend until then thursday and friday look mildish

Andy st david day looks cold but dry. Sunny with nightime frost. Edited February 24, 2010 by keithlucky

[J10]

I be surprised and shocked if we don't get a northerly sometime from 1st of march to the 10 with heavy wintry showers I really cant remember march without snow sleet ,and kitchen sink thrown at us,but saying that this is not a normal winter.

Over the past 11 winters (for March), 3 have seen Met Office snow days, 8 with at least 1 day of falling snow and 3 without any wintriness at all.

[andymusic]

shame we can't have a thread for the warmer months called

THE WELSH CYMRU STORM DISCUSSION

we do get quite a few occassions when this happens as I rightly know when about a year or so ago - out of the blue - without a model or forecaster in sight - a bolt of lightning came down just outside and the residual electrical energy travelled up the BT phone wire - down me broadband connection and blew the life out of me poor towers power systems - what a shock that was - it would have been even more of a shock if I'd been holding my mouse as well

[keithlucky]

Over the past 11 winters (for March), 3 have seen Met Office snow days, 8 with at least 1 day of falling snow and 3 without any wintriness at all.

Must be our snowiest period jackone ,including my favorite snowiest day feb8.

[andymusic]

Andy st david day looks cold but dry. Sunny with nightime frost.

that's what the 12z was saying - it all depends what this nasty low will do this weekend as to what'll happen next week

[grab my graupel]

Please allow me to explain the situation wrt the deleted posts.

The titles of the regional threads contain the following words: " Weather Discussion" which, simply put, means this is an area for weather related discussion.

Obviously, we don't want every single post to be technical. But since this is a weather forum, those who have an interest in the weather must be considered first

There are plenty of other threads available for banter/chat - we've even added a chat room to the forum, so you can't ask for fairer than that.

Please remember, not only do we have to consider the members who directly participate in the threads but, also, the many people who wish to read the threads in the background. A lot of these members visit the weather related areas to get an idea what the weather may have in-store for their location and, whilst doing so, they don't want to trawl through numerous off topic posts. So please remember to consider all the members who use this site before posting

Hope that makes it clearer

Brian

[andymusic]

GFS 18z - has the low over the weekend coming into southern england but then moving east and not effecting wales that much - but - the cold air is also back saturday night - so - if the low were to come a bit further north into Wales - who knows the possibilities for another bout of wintry weather we could have - needs to be watched for sure

Edited February 24, 2010 by andymusic

[andymusic]

Folks - heads up - both the GFS and ECM now have hints coming into the reliable time frame ish of a high setting up it's stall to the north west of britain dragging the very cold air over us for at least the 1st 10 days of March and beyond once this storm clears through on sunday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stevetynant]

Folks - heads up - both the GFS and ECM now have hints coming into the reliable time frame ish of a high setting up it's stall to the north west of britain dragging the very cold air over us for at least the 1st 10 days of March and beyond once this storm clears through on sunday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Does this mean we need to change the discussion thread title already?

[Stevetynant]

Please allow me to explain the situation wrt the deleted posts.

The titles of the regional threads contain the following words: " Weather Discussion" which, simply put, means this is an area for weather related discussion.

Obviously, we don't want every single post to be technical. But since this is a weather forum, those who have an interest in the weather must be considered first

There are plenty of other threads available for banter/chat - we've even added a chat room to the forum, so you can't ask for fairer than that.

Please remember, not only do we have to consider the members who directly participate in the threads but, also, the many people who wish to read the threads in the background. A lot of these members visit the weather related areas to get an idea what the weather may have in-store for their location and, whilst doing so, they don't want to trawl through numerous off topic posts. So please remember to consider all the members who use this site before posting

Hope that makes it clearer

Brian

Brian - as one of your newer subscribers - could you explain to me your rationale on the regional discussion threads please. Once the winter discussion thread comes to its natural conclusion does this then evolve into a regional discussion / spring thread then summer thread perhaps?

It would seem to me that for anyone looking for information or opinions on most aspects of weather the first place they would look for useful information would be within an area that covered their own geographic location - hence I would have thought that a regional thread perhaps subcategorized would already be considered .

Perhaps I've misunderstood things but I'd appreciate your thoughts

Thanks in advance

Steve

[andymusic]

GFS 06z - still showing signs of cold and an easterly - in fact this time next week if this model run were to verify would be the start of a three day snow storm - pretty similar to the one that is going on in Scotland right now.

So the cold snowy weather is still a very great possiblity certainly for the 1st two weeks of March - hold with the

"Mild Weather Discussion"

It's only temporary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[joo]

It's just as well I don't believe in FI as I don't want it to be snowing at the end of next week. 3 days snow, then massive heat to melt it before the Friday would be nice.

It would be typical bad luck if I couldn't go skiing due to snow shutting the airport.

[andymusic]

It's just as well I don't believe in FI as I don't want it to be snowing at the end of next week. 3 days snow, then massive heat to melt it before the Friday would be nice.

It would be typical bad luck if I couldn't go skiing due to snow shutting the airport.

which airport you flying from Joo?

[joo]

which airport you flying from Joo?

Cardiff.

So unless it's really snowy, I guess we'll be OK.

Anyway, the last load of FIs didn't come to much, so I'm assuming this one won't. Of course that will make it certain that it WILL snow.

It's like my mother is a good weather forecaster. She lives in Bristol and without fail I have to put a weather warning out when she visits as it ALWAYS rains.

[andymusic]

Cardiff.

So unless it's really snowy, I guess we'll be OK.

Anyway, the last load of FIs didn't come to much, so I'm assuming this one won't. Of course that will make it certain that it WILL snow.

It's like my mother is a good weather forecaster. She lives in Bristol and without fail I have to put a weather warning out when she visits as it ALWAYS rains.

well this afternoon's run of the GFS doesn't seem as bad for snow next week now - I think it's all gonna depend on this low this weekend - where it goes and then how it exits the UK - it'll be something for you to keep an eye on though - be funny mind if you can't get to the slopes just cause your plane is snowed in - Wales

[Jamie.]

Mild and boring wet weather next few days .

Not happy unless it's pelting down with snow or blazing sunshine.

Some snow events this winter have come out of no where so I'm not banking on charts for next week as they always alter when the time comes around.

-------

Even if it is late February we still got another few weeks where snow is still likely...

remember 2008:

http://www.telegraph...wo-decades.html

but also same time in 2007:

http://www.guardian....9/weather.world

Edited February 25, 2010 by Jamie.ed

[andymusic]

models are a little all over the place at the moment - GFS along with the others doesn't think the nasty low coming up from the south will be that bad for the UK now and may only effect the South East of England - again though, this still needs to be watched - after that a bit of a miss match while the weather sorts itself out with signs the north easterly may set up shop tuesday night into wednesday with some wintry precip - but and it's a big but - it all depends what this low does this weekend as to how the weather pans out next weekend

[Stevetynant]

models are a little all over the place at the moment - GFS along with the others doesn't think the nasty low coming up from the south will be that bad for the UK now and may only effect the South East of England - again though, this still needs to be watched - after that a bit of a miss match while the weather sorts itself out with signs the north easterly may set up shop tuesday night into wednesday with some wintry precip - but and it's a big but - it all depends what this low does this weekend as to how the weather pans out next weekend

BBC is showing a possibility of Snow Sunday night for us in Wales - not going to be anything like our friends North of the border are experiencing but its progged none the less

[marclt]

I think we should all just err on the side of caution. Even if it does snow, we don't have the progressive cold conditions that we experienced in January and we also have a lot more daylight now. The sun intensity would make it difficult for any snow to stick.

By the end of the weekend, temperatures will almost have hit double figures thanks to that low. I'd love more snow, but I would be surprised if we get anything significant as we head into March. That isn't to say it can't snow in March - and I've seen heavy snow in April (overnight).

[andymusic]

Today's GFS runs are showing some curious lowish temps overnight tonight and saturday night which could produce some cold "weather" - the low will pull the cold air down after it so the cold will come back - temps will not be that warm this weekend even though the low originated from way down south - daytime temps on sunday are only progged to be around 2 - 3c and night time temps are still gonna be around 0 or -1 - not spring like at all

The Meto have an advisory out for heavy winds and rain on Sunday and also the possibility of that rain turning to snow over higher ground - exactly what the GFS 06z is pointing out also - looks an interesting weekend coming up!

[mistywood@supanet.com]

Here in Llandudno, we seem to have got away with a lot of really bad weather this winter. It is my belief that because we are surrounded by sea water on 3 sides, the salt air had saved us from the harshest temperatures and heavy snow falls. That's not to say it hasn't been cold (my Davis has measured -4.5) and we have had 4 coverings of snow. But the maximum depth we have had is only about 3cm which is a mere dusting compared with South Wales and other areas. The worst of it is, we hardly ever get thunderstorms in the summer either. All in all, as a weather watcher, it's disappointing, but many, particularly the older people, are grateful for the mild conditions. Is it worth me investing in a boltek?

[Stevetynant]

Here in Llandudno, we seem to have got away with a lot of really bad weather this winter. It is my belief that because we are surrounded by sea water on 3 sides, the salt air had saved us from the harshest temperatures and heavy snow falls. That's not to say it hasn't been cold (my Davis has measured -4.5) and we have had 4 coverings of snow. But the maximum depth we have had is only about 3cm which is a mere dusting compared with South Wales and other areas. The worst of it is, we hardly ever get thunderstorms in the summer either. All in all, as a weather watcher, it's disappointing, but many, particularly the older people, are grateful for the mild conditions. Is it worth me investing in a boltek?

Hi Misty - what is a boltek? (is it some kind of weather station? - considering the same myself if so) - probably sounds like you should definitely invest in a BBQ at the very least )

[loadsa]

Whats happening at the met office now showing heavy snow for here Sunday and 8 degrees temp

[andymusic]

Whats happening at the met office now showing heavy snow for here Sunday and 8 degrees temp

Meto are going for Hill Snow and rain on low ground especially in the south - the temps will defo not be that high - they will lucky to be half that and the winds will provide a wind chill also

Here in Llandudno, we seem to have got away with a lot of really bad weather this winter. It is my belief that because we are surrounded by sea water on 3 sides, the salt air had saved us from the harshest temperatures and heavy snow falls. That's not to say it hasn't been cold (my Davis has measured -4.5) and we have had 4 coverings of snow. But the maximum depth we have had is only about 3cm which is a mere dusting compared with South Wales and other areas. The worst of it is, we hardly ever get thunderstorms in the summer either. All in all, as a weather watcher, it's disappointing, but many, particularly the older people, are grateful for the mild conditions. Is it worth me investing in a boltek?

It seems you live in a rather shady weather related spot there - I really enjoy thunderstorms in the summer myself and end up watching the Isle of Wight lightning detector to see if we have any storms approaching - almost as good as watching out for snow - my advice - certainly consider buying the boltek - and - if Llandudno isn't really where you want to live - move to a more active weather spot - we tend to do well here in the southern Welsh valleys - a bit of elevation for the snow - inland as well - and the storms seem to enjoy popping in here as well

Edited February 26, 2010 by andymusic

[loadsa]

Andy put in location Cardiff not mountainous areas

Unless they mean where Jay lives