Sunday's Low

[major]

I see there is a storm forecast for the UK this weekend, a very deep low which is at the moment over the Med.

We wait with interest.

[Coast]

Sunday is shaping up to be interesting for France and parts of Spain, Portugal and the South Coast of England. Will it bring any significant weather to the UK, will it miss us or will it all be a storm in a teacup?

[Tom D]

If there was any real risk of it being bad, wouldn't the Met Office have released a weather advisory for it by now?

It's look like it will be most stormy around the north west coast of Spain and Portugal and the Bay of Biscay, weakening somewhat by the time it reaches our shores.

[Coast]

This site may become interesting to follow when the track is more certain (click on a specific area to get the local sea conditions) www.channelcoast.org/real_time_data

[Harry]

Good morning, I dont know if I have put this in the right place, let me know if not.

Anyway I see there is a storm forecast for the UK this weekend, a very deep low which is at the moment over the Med.

We wait with interest.

Hi Major

This post should really be under the UK Extreme Weather/Storm Discussion thread, though am sure a Mod will relocate (I do not have the awesome powers of the Mods, lol)

Storm does look to be interesting - BBC certainly very interested in its developments, which for the Beeb is quite unusual for them to draw attention to something 4 days away.

Tomasz Schafernaker described it as potentially "destructive", entailing very heavy amounts of rainfall, with winds from gale to severe gale strength, with storm force gusts possible. Jay Wynne echoed this on the later forecast. Not looking good for SW and W Europe at this stage. Bearing in mind though, the likes of Portugal and Spain, inc parts of France are going to be well into Spring, meaning trees would already be starting to leaf, adding to the risk of trees coming down. Flooding I imagine would be a real risk also with lots of storms already in these areas recently.

Certainly something to keep an eye on, especially (it looks at the moment) for Southern counties of England, in particular the SE. Interesting, this storm is going to take a somewhat similar path to the 1987 storm (I think), evolving deep in the Azores then rattling up across the W coast of Portugal, Spain and France, drawing further energy from the Bay of Biscay before slamming into NW France and the potentially S and E England. What with the high amounts of rainfall already received here, plus further rain forecast today and tomorrow, it could be a dodgy situation.

Just nearly fell off of my chair - MetOffice pressure charts have the storm at 946mb!!

[weather eater]

Nice to see the Charts showing a cooling trend and some Snow chances for the Midlands appearing on the charts again . Still a very complicated situation though with quick changing Model sets and a very low FI . Nice to see the MJO heading back to Phase 7/8 again and some blocking to our NW is now showing up quite often in the Models.

As for the Low it really doesn't look that scary to me , we have had 975mb lows from the North lots of times before and they only give 40-50 mph wind gusts Inland , the coasts 70-80 mph which can knock down a few trees and so on but this system really looks to me like the Strongest winds are in the Southern quadrant . Nick Sussex will almost surely see stronger winds than the UK.

just to back this up the Chart below shows the UK in light Winds and SW France getting battered .

And also the South West of England need to forget about Sunday's Low and think about Tomorrows . 70 MPH wind Gusts look very likely in th SW during rush hour Tomorrow Morning. Sustained winds of 50MPH look possible in areas like Penzance.

The worry with LP systems is that they can suddenly do the unexpected.

Anyone know this one, it was a real killer, I bet JH does.

[Coast]

[Harry]

Didn't know there was a place in Spain called Moron! Lol

[Fitzwis]

Morning all. Have been keeping a close eye on this one and will continue to do so. The potential is there for some damaging winds and heavy rain for us during Sunday. What is also a worry for us here in the islands is that the projected low coincides with some of our highest spring tides of the year. The high tides for Sunday in Jersey are at 06:03 and 18:32 respectively with a predicted height of 37.1ft for both (40ft being the top end of our scale). However, with the potential for very strong winds, deep low pressure and heavy rainfall, the predicted height of 37.1ft will inevitably rise considerably. We are currently having a new storm drainage system fitted along our South Coast following a major breach of the sea wall last year which caused extensive flooding. This could well be the new system's first real test.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

It appears that GFS 06z looks very much like the ECM 0z and takes a less deep low (980mb) through Iberia and France and it tracks NE to the SE of the UK.

If this is the right trend now it is a better one. Hopefully so.

GFS 06z mean for lunchtime Sunday - no ensemble member now takes the low further north west into southern central england and the central pressure mean is shallower than last night

[mountain shadow]

GFS 12z seems to downgrade more with the system less potent and further south east.

[John London]

GFS 12z seems to downgrade more with the system less potent and further south east.

That's great news.

[thegreat316]

GFS 12z seems to downgrade more with the system less potent and further south east.

Yes, but GFS has consistently showed it weeker then other models. GEM and NOGAPS showing it much stronger with ECM and ukmo in the middle. Still very much one to watch

[wee]

Yes, but GFS has consistently showed it weeker then other models. GEM and NOGAPS showing it much stronger with ECM and ukmo in the middle. Still very much one to watch

Hi thegreat316,what do you think about this naughty Low thats due on sunday,do you feel it will cause damage,or is it not going to be as bad as that?

[yamkin]

COMAPS 12Z is showing a very worrying low pressure this Sunday

[I remember Atlantic 252]

dreading this low, I will be swimming out my house to town!, I think GFS is underdoing this low, expect horrid changes in tomorrows gfs runs more inline with UKMO

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

UKMO and ECM would show a still fairly deep Low as it moves towards the channel, so there is the chance of gale force wind gusts along the south coast and across the south-east on Sunday. Nothing of particular concern, going by the UKMO, ECM and latest FAX output I would estimate gusts along the coast typically reaching around 40-55mph, with perhaps some higher gusts at times. Coupled with this some heavy rainfall, it will be a generally unsettled day across southern parts of England.

Yes assuming they verify I would agree with that - don't want them any further north though

[The Melting Snowman in Guernsey]

Morning all. Have been keeping a close eye on this one and will continue to do so. The potential is there for some damaging winds and heavy rain for us during Sunday. What is also a worry for us here in the islands is that the projected low coincides with some of our highest spring tides of the year. The high tides for Sunday in Jersey are at 06:03 and 18:32 respectively with a predicted height of 37.1ft for both (40ft being the top end of our scale). However, with the potential for very strong winds, deep low pressure and heavy rainfall, the predicted height of 37.1ft will inevitably rise considerably. We are currently having a new storm drainage system fitted along our South Coast following a major breach of the sea wall last year which caused extensive flooding. This could well be the new system's first real test.

Over here the higher tides are on the Tuesday so it looks like we should escape the worst !! Had this been on the Sunday i can say for sure that we would be submerged big time !!! Oh, our top scale is 10m and they predict a 10.3m on Tuesday !! Oh dear !! Dont look good for the harbour of St Peter Port !!

[Supercell]

I think that the main concern will be the rainfall. Particularly if an inch or so falls on already saturated ground. The wind will be much less of an issue. Just a bit of breeze.

[Nick F]

12z GFS shows yet more heavy rain tomorrow night across Madeira as the low, still in its early stages of deepening, starts to interact with the shortwave trough and jet:

Don't assume the track of this low heading towards the south on Sunday is done and dusted ... it's coming from an unusual direction of a very southerly latitude for a developing Atlantic low, and upper air data on the area of this feature maybe a bit lacking so the models may not quite have grasped the phasing and interaction of the trough/jet with the low and this could still make a left turn towards the UK. Unlikely, but can't be ruled out.

[johnholmes]

Don't assume the track of this low heading towards the south on Sunday is done and dusted ... it's coming from an unusual direction of a very southerly latitude for a developing Atlantic low, and upper air data on the area of this feature maybe a bit lacking so the models may not quite have grasped the phasing and interaction of the trough/jet with the low and this could still make a left turn towards the UK. Unlikely, but can't be ruled out.

true Nick-the models do seem to have difficulty in depth-track-and intensity of rainfall when lows approach from this direction. Whether it is because data is less available I'm not sure-much is made of sat info in data sparse regions so it should not be a major problem I would have thought-but it is a direction that gives more trouble than most others.

[tinybill]

bbc weather very worried about sunday storm already big flooding problems down the south and easst as its pouring down out side now

[Nick F]

true Nick-the models do seem to have difficulty in depth-track-and intensity of rainfall when lows approach from this direction. Whether it is because data is less available I'm not sure-much is made of sat info in data sparse regions so it should not be a major problem I would have thought-but it is a direction that gives more trouble than most others.

Even tomorrow midnight (t+36), there are differences in depth between UKMO and GFS, the former has the low deeper by some 10mb, though centre just west of Madeira fairly similar:

- ukmo

- gfs

[Guest]

Happily I took my Bay of Biscay trip last Friday to Sunday.

Interesting trip though - some snow was settling on the Downs on the way to Portsmouth and the temp dropped to 2C - at the port it was about 5 to 6C, then for the most part in the bay, 10 to 11C.

On docking at Bilbao the temp was 13C and it was showery, becoming continous moderate rain as we went over the French border. The temp gradually dropped as well, down to about 6C as we went past Pau.

After that it cleared up and when we stopped about 60 miles south of Toulouse for the lunch the indicated temp on the car was 9C but by this time the sun was out and it felt quite warm.

Lovely views of the snow on the Pyrenees.

As we reached Carcassonne the temp rose further and was alternating between 14 and 15C and the max has stayed at about that point until yesterday when it alternated between 18 & 19C, though today was cooler again.

Current charts indicate that the worst effects of that nasty little low will miss us, though you can never be too sure. I've got my drizesabone raincoat with me just in case together with an arran sweater.

[kold weather]

I think that the main concern will be the rainfall. Particularly if an inch or so falls on already saturated ground. The wind will be much less of an issue. Just a bit of breeze.

I still think to assume the wind threat isn't an issue, if the ECM/UKMO came off you'd be looking at 45-55mph gusts which with the ground sodden could cause issues, esp with trees that haven't shed thier leaves...and I'm far from confident about the exact track either though there is increasing agreement tonight.

IF the track holds, N.France will get hammered, as will Portugal/N Spain and possibly Low countries, but the SE must be aware of this because a 75 mile shift NW brings the worst way too close to the SE for comfort, and thats still within the margin of error.

Heavy rain of course will be a big issue, already got flooding on some streets down here in Chichester so another few active fronts will take us back upto November/Early December levels.