Sunday's Low

[Buckster]

Firstly, and even though this isn't what I expect or forecast, and without scare-mongering, thats exactly the kindof attitude people had before '87. Now Im not suggesting we will get a repeat, but that doesn't mean the potential is there for slightly worse than is currently progged.

But worse than this, the ground is already so saturated that many places in EA for example simply wont cope with the amount of rain this will provide. There are areas of Chelmsford, Essex where sandbags are currently protecting houses against flooded streets. The weekends rain will only add pressure in these areas - the risk of flooding is very worrying imo, considering its already an issue across the SE due to the vast amount of rain we have already seen. Certainly gotta keep an eye on it!

PRECISELY!

where in Chelmsford has sand-bags protecting houses ? (live in Chelmsford and interested to see) - I haven't seen any sand bags used

[i luv snow]

Parts of Essex were already submerged under water last night as heavy rainfall caused localised flooding.

Essex Fire Service was called to a flooded street in Chelmsford to help prevent homes being damaged by the overflowing water.

This was the second time in four days that the fire service had been called to this spot.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1254033/Britain-braces-floods-forecasters-warn-heavy-rain.html#ixzz0gg4hMH6r

[Mondy]

Why isn't this Breaking News yet? I mean, it's only two days away

*This is a joke to the easily offended

[i luv snow]

Why isn't this Breaking News yet? I mean, it's only two days away

*This is a joke to the easily offended

Luckily I'm not easily offender...however it won't be fun for those areas that get hardest hit. Madeira has already had a deadly storm, this will only add to it. I have a colleague who lives there who was trapped in his house with a metre of water out the front, he escaped to the top floor. Thats how bad the storm there was, and a week later it will hit the island again! That is no joke!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I mentioned this possibility a good few days ago- the main problem for many will most likely not be strong winds, but rather flooding, as a result of persistent heavy rain falling onto already saturated ground. In the meantime parts of north Spain and France are in for some pretty severe winds...

[Thundersquall]

This storm on Sunday is a bit of a concern. Our presenter on BBC Points West described it as being akin to the one that struck in October 1987!

Hopefully it will track as predicted and the UK avoids a repeat situation.

On another subject I read this morning that we lost 0-3 so I'm not happy today!

Edited February 26, 2010 by Thundersquall

[snow raven]

Why isn't this Breaking News yet? I mean, it's only two days away

*This is a joke to the easily offended

Mondy, you don't offend - most of us know you for the wind up merchant that you are

[yamkin]

Croydon Council had an emergency meeting today regarding the predicted storm on Sunday. They are concerned with the gales, but it is the amount of heavy rain that is concerning all due to the present saturated ground. To think that the Thames Barrier might be activated on Sunday raises even more concerns.

[Ian Fergusson]

I mentioned this possibility a good few days ago- the main problem for many will most likely not be strong winds, but rather flooding, as a result of persistent heavy rain falling onto already saturated ground. In the meantime parts of north Spain and France are in for some pretty severe winds...

Note my blog update reflecting current UKMO concerns re sting jet.

[yamkin]

Note my blog update reflecting current UKMO concerns re sting jet.

Hi Ian,

As a paying customer, Croydon Council are really taking the MetO's advice very seriously. Sunday is a real concern at the moment. Your input to this thread is greatly appreciated.

[clv101]

Flooding is about more than just rain - Sunday morning for example looks like there could certainly be potential issues with abnormally high tides thanks to an E or NE wind in the S North Sea of 20-30 knots on the back of a 7m+ tide means the potential for tidal locking on the east coast around high tide - something to look for, especially north of the Thames Estuary and south of The Wash.

I've just written a blog post about the combination of spring high tide and the low pressure system: High Tide Alert

It's the first time I've blogged about the weather, go easy me!

I'm interested in how accurate surface pressure forecasts tend to be three days out. What's the margin of error on pressure and location on Monday and Tuesday, as forecast on Friday?

[Marcus_surfer]

Just noticed the temperatures have risen quickly in the Canary Islands? Some readings showing 26-30C, is this pulling in warm air from Africa? Interesting.

[West Sussex Kate]

Night all, this time tomorrow night it might be here.

Here's a sat image of the storm (you can spot it bottom left.)

Edited February 27, 2010 by Westsussex1

[kold weather]

Yep gotta admit the rainfall is going to be something I'll be watching very closely, I already know of some minor flooding issue in Chichester, would not surprise me if they become a whole lot worse by the time the weekend is done.

The only slight saving grace is the sun is getting stronger now compared to the late November/early December rains, which all helps...

[johnholmes]

I've just written a blog post about the combination of spring high tide and the low pressure system: High Tide Alert

It's the first time I've blogged about the weather, go easy me!

I'm interested in how accurate surface pressure forecasts tend to be three days out. What's the margin of error on pressure and location on Monday and Tuesday, as forecast on Friday?

There is nothing wrong with what you have written in your blog and yes there is, I would rate it a relatively small risk, of coastal flooding on a minor scale due to the two factors coming together. Like you point out in your blog, there is no major wind running down the whole North Sea as in other cases-1953 being the extreme case.

[John London]

The Met Office Surface Pressure Chart for T36. Not very informative.

[Iceberg]

Latest sat picture shows the tell tale signs of strenghtening and good circulation.

[flysurfer]

omg my roof is halfway being replaced, all ive got on my roof, is some felt and battening to hold it down, and tiles stacked on it ready to lay... and im in dover and where i live i call its wind city, if this low does come close to us im in trouble. poxy roofers 2 weeks nearly my roof as been off lazy gits... im off to ring them, do they look at the weather forcasts.

[remymartin]

the council have got the scaffolding up ready to do the whole of my street , i dont think i will park the car underneath it , just in case

[Thundery wintry showers]

Note my blog update reflecting current UKMO concerns re sting jet.

I recall at the RMetS conference last year one of the PhD students from Reading was studying sting jets (the first time I'd ever come across them)- and yes, the potential is certainly there on this system. I won't be surprised to see stories of considerable structural damage across parts of northern and western France early next week.

Re. 1953, fortunately for East Anglia the winds do appear to ease off considerably by the time the low moves out into the North Sea giving northerlies, so indeed "storm surges" look unlikely down the North Sea.

[John London]

The Met have just fixed the Surface Pressure chart for tomorrow at 12 midday

[Duane S.]

omg my roof is halfway being replaced, all ive got on my roof, is some felt and battening to hold it down, and tiles stacked on it ready to lay... and im in dover and where i live i call its wind city, if this low does come close to us im in trouble. poxy roofers 2 weeks nearly my roof as been off lazy gits... im off to ring them, do they look at the weather forcasts.

I'd phone them mate! You are not in a good location at all. Even if you don't end up on the Southern flank (which you could well do), VERY severe gusts could develop for a while as the system rattles through tomorrow.

[Sunset_Twilight]

The purple swirl is over Yorkshire etc, does this mean i could be in for some strong gusts?

[Guest archiesmummy]

not sure but i think those purple fronts indicate the warm and cold air battle and the areas affected are more where the isobars are closer together (closer together stronger the wind) could be blustery but think main focus is on the SE - Yamkin? are you there? is that about right?!

[johnholmes]

see the forecasters blog-entry under Nick F, I've just updated it.