Sunday's Low

[kold weather]

Looks like the frontal system will be very active for the south looking at the models, however once it starts to drag colder air down the western flank it should start to weaken, exactly when that happens determines the rain induced flooding risk. The main risk zone will be areas directly NW of the LP circulation from the looks of things for the heavy rainfall.

Worth noting the UKMO's own models takes the worst of the front over the channel instead, so some uncertainty still, as the GFS takes it just a touch further north. Either way still going to be very wet!

[Iceberg]

I am not sure how good a handle the models have on this atm.

This is the NAE and the current taken from obs. There seems to be a disconnect, with the pressure not quite as low and the low pressure further north and slightly further west.

The XC site will be useful to track it over the coming 24 hrs.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ES/observations

[johnholmes]

I am not sure how good a handle the models have on this atm.

This is the NAE and the current taken from obs. There seems to be a disconnect, with the pressure not quite as low and the low pressure further north and slightly further west.

The XC site will be useful to track it over the coming 24 hrs.

http://www.xcweather...ES/observations

this chart might give a better picture of how the low is moving over a longer period-does need a little understanding of the weather plots, also sometimes not over accurate in its position of a low but useful usually.

http://meteocentre.c...〈=en&map=UK

the best of course is the 6 hourly Met O Fax.

Looking at the link above-shows a centre of 971mb and the NAE position for 12z is the same depth and pretty close to where its being shown by that link at 12z. GFS too far NE as it seems to have been all along.

Edited February 27, 2010 by johnholmes

[tinybill]

I'd phone them mate! You are not in a good location at all. Even if you don't end up on the Southern flank (which you could well do), VERY severe gusts could develop for a while as the system rattles through tomorrow.

its looking at bit wild now for sunday!!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Fax at midday today

Edited February 27, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[West Sussex Kate]

This storm is called, Xynthia

[BlueHedgehog074]

I'm really not looking forward to the gloom, wind and rain this low will bring us (despite the fact I don't mind heavy rain), but what do you think the chances are for some of us getting snow from that deep low tommorrow?

(Edit: I did orignally think that tommorrow afternoon would give us our best shot for something wintry)

Edited February 27, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[Neilsouth]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Run the radar loop

[toggerob]

GFS Suggests some 9 hours of continuous heavy rainfall for the SoutEast overnight tonight, coupled with Spring Tides there could be some localised issues with coastal flooding given the recent rainfall totals during the week also.

[ZONE 51]

this is why its worrying about the tree risk this is a reduced part of the text click on full story to read the rest

Weather service officials said sustained wind speeds of 30 mph are likely with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possiblel full storyA combination of wet soil and strong gusty winds likely will result in numerous downed trees and power lines, especially during this afternoon and early evening when wind gusts will be the strongest, the officials said.Old Man Winter will be huffin' and puffin' in the Upstate today, and strong, gusty winds combined with wet soil conditions could result in "significant damage" to trees and power lines, meteorologists said."That could cause some serious problems with downed trees," said Scot Wendelken, director of the Greenville County Office of Emergency Management. "That's going to be our primary concern with this particular event."Meteorologists said the recent widespread precipitation and cool temperatures have kept the soil saturated, making trees vulnerable to gusty winds. The result could be "significant damage" to trees and power lines, they s

Edited February 27, 2010 by nimbilus

[ZONE 51]

as we have the ground conditions like in that story there , our trees a likely to topple alot easier in saturated ground ,the meto have 35-40mph general winds and gusts could hit 50-60mph if the track goes as forecast.

what do other think about this tree risk and saturated ground?

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Anyone concerned about the low forming right now off Portugal and over Bay of Biscay that will hit SE England and N France Sunday? 1987 Great Storm repeat? Lot of moisture and very low pressure, down to 967mb.

[ZONE 51]

windfinder.com

[yamkin]

Anyone concerned about the low forming right now off Portugal and over Bay of Biscay that will hit SE England and N France Sunday? 1987 Great Storm repeat? Lot of moisture and very low pressure, down to 967mb.

The storm is still on course for the UK tomorrow and the S//SE will be hit very hard with gusts of 50 - 70 mph. The heavy rain is going to add to the already saturated ground. Structural damage will occur unfortunately.

Speaking for Croydon, the emergency services and Croydon Council have all been briefed and are on emergency standby. The Council are really taking this projected storm very seriously indeed.

It now looks like the Thames Barrier will be activated later tonight :)

[yamkin]

windfinder.com

The storm is still on course for the UK tomorrow and the S//SE will be hit very hard with gusts of 50 - 70 mph. The heavy rain is going to add to the already saturated ground. Structural damage will occur unfortunately.

Speaking for Croydon, the emergency services and Croydon Council have all been briefed and are on emergency standby. The Council are really taking this projected storm very seriously indeed.

It now looks like the Thames Barrier will be activated later tonight :)

[johnholmes]

Anyone concerned about the low forming right now off Portugal and over Bay of Biscay that will hit SE England and N France Sunday? 1987 Great Storm repeat? Lot of moisture and very low pressure, down to 967mb.

nope not like the 87 storm in a number of ways, one of which is its predicted track is quite some way east of what happened that day.

[Buckster]

eek

:)

Edited February 27, 2010 by Buckster

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Going by latest NAE and GFS runs, regions such as east Kent and south-east EA near to the coasts could see north-north westerly gusts in excess of 60mph as the Low pushes further north and east into Belgium. Prior to this should be a few of hours ENE gale force gusts of around 45-55mph. Wouln't be surprised to see isolated gusts reaching severe gale for a time, but the chance of this is slim.

Yes the strongest of the winds are likely to be for a short period as the low pulls away and pressure rises fairly quickly. Your estimations in those figures, again, sound about right. The very latest beeb forecast continues to emphasis the persistent rainfall as the main issue and the wind exacerbating the coastal tides.

I am going to keep checking the environment agency line in this respect for my surrounding area - although that said I do live on some (very relatively!) elevated ground (about 50 metres) in terms of the generally flat terrain of my area, and so in terms of my own home and immediate district then it is going to be hard to flood (fortunately) as all roads lead upwards to where I live and I have no river in my vicinity either. In that sense I am more concerned and watchful personally about wind strength than anything else.

Local flooding issues as a whole for the SE quadrant though is definitely going to be an issue on top of the amount of rain already in the last week.

12z UKMO and 12z NAE in very good agreement about low position tracking east into Belgium. GFS also agrees - seems to have the process marginally faster though?

Edited February 27, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[saint]

Advantages of living on a hill, the water flows down the hill! :)

[nick sussex]

Really very worrying for areas north of Bordeaux with now a red warning issued for central west France with possible gusts upto 130kmh and even mention of 150kmh in the worst effected areas!

This from meteo France:

La dépression remonte en cours d'après-midi en continuant de se creuser légèrement le long du Portugal, puis elle se déplace rapidement la nuit prochaine de la pointe nord-ouest de l'Espagne vers les Pays de Loire , puis vers le nord du pays demain matin. Elle génère des vents très forts , voire violents au nord d'une ligne Arcachon/Brive. Cet événement débute vers 22 heures sur le littoral, puis progresse rapidement vers l'intérieur des terres du Poitou-Charentes à la Gironde, puis du Limousin à la Dordogne. Les vents les plus forts toucheront après minuit la Charente-Maritime et la pointe du Médoc puis les Deux-Sèvres et la Vienne, avec des rafales généralisées autour de 130 km/h dans les terres, pouvant atteindre voire dépasser les 150 km/h sur le littoral. Plus au sud, rafales prévues de 100 à 120 km/h dans l'intérieur, et de 120 à 140 km/h sur le littoral du sud au nord de la Gironde. Accalmie rapide demain matin par le sud-ouest.

I feel very lucky to be missing the worst of this.

Edited February 27, 2010 by nick sussex

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Advantages of living on a hill, the water flows down the hill!

There was a monsoon type downpour the other evening for about an hour and there were fast streams of water pouring down all the surrounding roads like one of those Aqua Park water slides!

Really very worrying for areas north of Bordeaux with now a red warning issued for central west France with possible gusts upto 130kmh and even mention of 150kmh in the worst effected areas!

http://france.meteof...tin?ZONE=dept17

I feel very lucky to be missing the worst of this.

Hi nick

Have been wondering how you are getting on. What is it like there with you atm? The low should be passing across the Biscay area in the next few hours.

The latest 12z UKMO depicts that hatched coloured area of winds moving across from Biscay into the areas you mention and supports those wind speeds too I expect it is dominating the news over there, despite the terrible earthquake in Chile.

[kent]

There was a monsoon type downpour the other evening for about an hour and there were fast streams of water pouring down all the surrounding roads like one of those Aqua Park water slides!

Thats my main concern. I live in a cul de sac at the very bottom of a long hill. The two storm drains outside in the road just cannot handle any volume of water. It cascades down my drive and through the garage. The useless council never do anything to resolve the problem, the last time the cul de sac flooded they sent a council worker with a broom. Knee deep in water with a broom lol.

[nick sussex]

There was a monsoon type downpour the other evening for about an hour and there were fast streams of water pouring down all the surrounding roads like one of those Aqua Park water slides!

Hi nick

Have been wondering how you are getting on. What is it like there with you atm? The low should be passing across the Biscay area in the next few hours.

The latest 12z UKMO depicts that hatched coloured area of winds moving across from Biscay into the areas you mention and supports those wind speeds too I expect it is dominating the news over there, despite the terrible earthquake in Chile.

Hi Tamara well its very windy here but nothing too bad at the moment, fingers crossed it stays that way! It looks terrible further north. Its been really stressful the last few days knowing that an eastwards correction by the models of that storm would have probably meant some extreme winds here, the strongest winds look likely here in the next few hours, I'm counting down the hours as by midnight the worst should be over here.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Thats my main concern. I live in a cul de sac at the very bottom of a long hill. The two storm drains outside in the road just cannot handle any volume of water. It cascades down my drive and through the garage. The useless council never do anything to resolve the problem, the last time the cul de sac flooded they sent a council worker with a broom. Knee deep in water with a broom lol.

I think much depends on the intensity of the rain here. It does look like quite a lengthy spell of rain but providing there are no persistent torrential bursts you might be alright on the basis that the drains can keep processing the water. Take care anyway

[Paul T]

Plymouth has weather like this almost monthly, winds of around 45-55mph, along with 25-35mm are not unusal at all; but it is heading for London, so will obviously lead to greater interest.

Not a biggy from my perspective, but will be interesting to monitor.