Model Output Discussion

[Ben_Cambs]

Interesting deep in FI from GFS, the Jet Stream begins to move Northwards, although throughout the whole of this run, there is no sign of Spring, Uppers never get above 0C.

[kold weather]

Yeah the 12z GFS really isn't that great to be honest, the intial high sets up slightly too far south with the cold air taking a little too long to drag down, we do get a decent brief easterly shot that is quite potent but after that the upper high takes control to the NW with hardly no upper low feature to the west to help drag down colder northerly flows.

So this run is cool, rather then cold for most of the run bar Friday and Saturday.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The 12z Ensembles have took a dive from around the 4th-8th with a mean of -10 850's in Central England . A slight rise after the 8th though . Were starting to get some agreement now on at least a brief Cold Spell that will involve an Easterly component of some sorts.

[cooling climate]

There does seem to be some sort of agreement between the models now especially the

ECM and GFS rather surprisingly out to t144 although the UKMO is not that far off.

Of course there could well be upgrades or downgrades as we go through the coming

week but at the moment it does look like a cold, perhaps very cold and quite wintry set

up is in store.

[ANYWEATHER]

The Ecm is a peach of a run for snow lovers at t144 especially for the southern half of the Uk...UMMMMMGH! :lol:

[TEITS]

Pretty good agreement from the models of an E,ly developing.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

This chart from the NOGAPS is very alarming.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-180.png?27-18

What has been noticeable in some of the model runs isn't just a cold E,ly but how strong the flow could be. The wind chill effect on the NOGAPS chart could be incredible!

Edited February 27, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[MR EXTREMES]

Pretty good agreement from the models of an E,ly developing.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

This chart from the NOGAPS is very alarming.

http://91.121.94.83/...0-180.png?27-18

What has been noticeable in some of the model runs isn't just a cold E,ly but how strong the flow could be. The wind chill effect on the NOGAPS chart could be incredible!

gefs aswell has chart similar and so does the gem and the jma :lol:

gem at 144

jma at 168 taking a little longer to get there though:cold:

and the gefs at the same timeframe

[Jayces]

Not going to get too excited until +24.

Granted we have had an amazing Winter across the whole country so far compared to previous ones but the models have on a few occasions shown amazing output a week away and then as it got closer it was either moved back, downgraded or both.

Here's hoping for another cold spell.

[The PIT]

I think there's a little too much excitement over this low. Anywhere else in the UK and it would be a normal run of the mill winter storm. Ground saturated well at this time of year it always is due to the weak sunlight.

For France is a bad storm certainly but here too be honest nothing to get excited about.

Anyway back to the models in FI land still an easterly progged by the GFS, ECM agrees so the chances it coming off I would say 60:40 so we could be looking at a very interesting start to march bringing something the younger members have never seen. Proper Snow in March.

[Mole]

Pretty good agreement from the models of an E,ly developing.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

This chart from the NOGAPS is very alarming.

http://91.121.94.83/...0-180.png?27-18

What has been noticeable in some of the model runs isn't just a cold E,ly but how strong the flow could be. The wind chill effect on the NOGAPS chart could be incredible!

Trouble is we have seen quite a few extremly bitter Easterlies at the t+144 time-range which have never materilised or have just missed us this winter.The credibility off all weather models beyond t+144 is so poor is best to ignore them.

I think despite this being a cold winter,i still think we have missed out on an exceptionally cold- winter,by just missing out on the extremly cold air out to the N AND E ,apart from mid Dec,and again the early part of Jan.

Close,but still a frustating Winter in my book,and i dont think the models have performed very well either

Edited February 27, 2010 by Mole

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think there's a little too much excitement over this low. Anywhere else in the UK and it would be a normal run of the mill winter storm. Ground saturated well at this time of year it always is due to the weak sunlight.

For France is a bad storm certainly but here too be honest nothing to get excited about.

Anyway back to the models in FI land still an easterly progged by the GFS, ECM agrees so the chances it coming off I would say 60:40 so we could be looking at a very interesting start to march bringing something the younger members have never seen. Proper Snow in March.

The Winds are picking up now this evening on the Southern Quadrant of the Low in France and it is now at 970mb . Will be interesting to see if it now deepens lower than GFS suggests . It has deepened 10mb in the last 3 hours .

Edited February 27, 2010 by snowmadchrisuk

[Duane S.]

I would say that we are now looking at a greater than 50% chance of an Easterly of sorts occuring in about 5 days time (that's just jinxed it it then! ).

Seriously though, there is universal agreement both from the computer models and human forecasters that a block will form over or above us come the end of next week. I didn't buy the SSE/SE feed that was being shown a few days ago and most have now binned that for a much more likely Easterly - North Easterly. Of course, as we get into the higher resolution we can for sure expect the details to change but I'm fairly confident that we will be, at worst, under the influence of high pressure bringing us settled, dry and frosty conditions. At best, be at the mercy of a roaring Easterly with blizzards for many (possibly the first time this winter that this word could be used correctly, for the south at least).

Edited February 27, 2010 by s4lancia

[Mole]

I would say that we are now looking at a greater than 50% chance of an Easterly of sorts occuring in about 5 days time (that's just jinxed it it then! ).

Seriously though, there is universal agreement both from the computer models and human forecasters that a block will form over or above us come the end of next week. I didn't buy the SSE/SE feed that was being shown a few days ago and most have now binned that for a much more likely Easterly - North Easterly. Of course, as we get into the higher resolution we can for sure expect the details to change but I'm fairly confident that we will be, at worst, under the influence of high pressure bringing us settled, dry and frosty conditions. At best, be at the mercy of a roaring Easterly with blizzards for many (possibly the first time this winter that this word could be used correctly, for the south at least).

So something like the blizzard of March 1891 isn't entirely out of the question is what you are saying-excellent.

[Richard Lake]

18z GFS seems to be a massive upgrade in the short term. The -5 line covers most of the UK as early as tomorrow night unlike model output over the 2 days showing this creeping down Tues-Thurs.

[The PIT]

The Winds are picking up now this evening on the Southern Quadrant of the Low in France and it is now at 970mb . Will be interesting to see if it now deepens lower than GFS suggests . It has deepened 10mb in the last 3 hours .

Agreed worth watching but I expect the SE of the UK still to be connected to the mainland tomorrow. I wouldn't like to be doing a ferry crossing tomorrow morning though.

[snowmadchrisuk]

18z GFS seems to be a massive upgrade in the short term. The -5 line covers most of the UK as early as tomorrow night unlike model output over the 2 days showing this creeping down Tues-Thurs.

Some Cold and Frosty nights looking likely at nights Rikki . I am wondering what our chances of Some Sunshine will be in the day for the the first half of the week .

[lukemc]

Trouble is we have seen quite a few extremly bitter Easterlies at the t+144 time-range which have never materilised or have just missed us this winter.The credibility off all weather models beyond t+144 is so poor is best to ignore them.

I think despite this being a cold winter,i still think we have missed out on an exceptionally cold- winter,by just missing out on the extremly cold air out to the N AND E ,apart from mid Dec,and again the early part of Jan.

Close,but still a frustating Winter in my book,and i dont think the models have performed very well either

So do you think that even though this winter was the coldest since 1978/79 (I think), we where very close to even exceeding that winter and recording the coldest and snowiest winter since 1963 and 1947 (or even rivaling them?)? What do you think the main reasons are for not achieving a winter rivaling those historic winters of the 20th century? Is it the lack of a prolonged potent easterly spell?

At least we can say that this winter was the coldest of the 21st century so far the UK and Northern/NW Europe, do you think that we could get a winter in our lifetimes that could event beat this one and be on a par with the above? Certainly I do think we will get a 1947 par winter in our lifetimes and it will also be pretty safe to assume we will get a 1976 type summer in our lifetimes too possibly even before 2020.

Anyway how cold can March be? Is it theoretically possible for March to be as cold as December? As in my area one of the largest snowfalls of the last decade came in March and I think that most Marches over the last 10 years or so have seen some snow events with significant falls in some areas so I would be extremely surprised if we do not get at least one snow event this March. I think that some meteorologists define the first half as March as winter is that true especially in North America where severe snowfall and ice days are possible well into March and even April?

Luke

[Rollo]

I think there are probably some posters who wish for some spring weather now but if the current charts verify just watch them change there tune-it reminds me of the charts of mid-march 1979 and that (for me anyhow) was something really amazing with huge drifts even on the outskirts of Newcastle. I am trying NOT to get too excited yet but I can dream.

[Liam J]

we could be looking at a potentially severe wintry spell after mid week with deep cold airmass over the uk, gale force easterly winds giving severe wind chill and blizzard conditions in the true meaning of the word where there is heavy snow falling.

the sst are at there coolest now giving little if any modification to the cold air, and given the wind strength shown the ever warming march sun would not really impact temps to much, and would also help convective showers which would be driven well inland.

long way to go but its looking good for another excellent spell of winter weather in the first week of the spring.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think there are probably some posters who wish for some spring weather now but if the current charts verify just watch them change there tune-it reminds me of the charts of mid-march 1979 and that (for me anyhow) was something really amazing with huge drifts even on the outskirts of Newcastle. I am trying NOT to get too excited yet but I can dream.

Yes, there are similarities with mid-March 1979, if the cold pool sets itself up over north-east England then it would put Tyneside right in the firing line for that sort of thing, though most runs set it up further south.

I don't find the GFS 18Z particularly believable- it is most likely overdoing that low to the south. However, the ECMWF looks quite plausible to me and would also give substantial snowfalls in places.

[Jason T]

I hope most would agree that this winter has been of some exception, I remeber JH post regarding the daddy of EASTERLY is about to start. I am newbie with a big passion to learn from this thread.

The way i see it is that at times the models have been thrown into the twilight zone with major upgrades and downgrades,Hope building outcomes with a crushing effect BUT i truly believe from what all the models show NOW with similar agreement that there is an ENCORE that this winter wants to end on.

I would like to end this post on a big thankyou to ALL as for reading varied posts throughout has been a big learning curve for any newbie wanting to understand models, There has been at times where this thread has gone way of track regarding models, But i think at the end of the day no matter what the models state and sometimes with human tweaking, IT IS THE weather and its outcome that makes it the most unpredictable topic to predict.

Many thanks to you all.

SL........

[snowfish]

I hope most would agree that this winter has been of some exception, I remeber JH post regarding the daddy of EASTERLY is about to start. I am newbie with a big passion to learn from this thread.

The way i see it is that at times the models have been thrown into the twilight zone with major upgrades and downgrades,Hope building outcomes with a crushing effect BUT i truly believe from what all the models show NOW with similar agreement that there is an ENCORE that this winter wants to end on.

I would like to end this post on a big thankyou to ALL as for reading varied posts throughout has been a big learning curve for any newbie wanting to understand models, There has been at times where this thread has gone way of track regarding models, But i think at the end of the day no matter what the models state and sometimes with human tweaking, IT IS THE weather and its outcome that makes it the most unpredictable topic to predict.

Many thanks to you all.

SL........

Well we most certainly thank you! Yep, easterly looking good - at this stage.......more later! :wacko:

[cooling climate]

The easterly being shown by the models would for many areas over England and Wales bring

some of the coldest and snowiest weather this winter. I think it would undoubtedly feel the

coldest with windchill making it feel more like -10c to -11c, but again we are still five, six days

away. The potential is there though.

[yamkin]

JMA 12Z is showing amazing Easterlies for the latter part of next week :wacko:

[kold weather]

The ensembles are in some disagreement with the evolution, small changes are going to make a very big difference in the eventual evolution, we need as strong an upper low sinking southwards as we can get, otherwise there will be nothing stopping the highb sinking over the UK.

Still regardless of the set-up before then and how strong any upper low is, we will be getting colder air, and some runs are still advecting some very impressive 850hpa temps for March.