Nasty Hurricane Season Lurking?

[dellboy84]

I aint no expert, but after last years very quiet season i do think this year will go with a bang.

[kold weather]

I've gotta admit I'm getting just a touch concerned now about this season, everything the long range models are suggesting screams very active season, we could well be looking at a 17-20 storm type season depending on the timings of the favorable phase of the MJO in the tropical Atlantic.

I'm seeing real signs of El Nino decaying now as the wind direction flips easterly (which is typically associated with cooling in the basin) and thus we should see some decent cooling in April of the ENSO zones and by July/August we will very likely be neutral, possibly even cold neutral and I wouldn't be all that surprised if a La Nina does try to develop by October...

SST anomalies have decreased a little but they are still sky-high and way above where we should be. Indeed we are as warm now as we normally are in late May!

Pressure forecasts still are pretty negative in the Caribbean/W.Atlantic as well...

I never thought I'd EVER say this again, esp so soon....but conditions are probably almost as good as we saw in 2005 at this stage and whilst I think to call for anything as extreme as that is not wise, I still am seeing a very active season, possibly one of the more active seasons in history.

My prelim numbers right now are:

18/10/5

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I've gotta admit I'm getting just a touch concerned now about this season, everything the long range models are suggesting screams very active season, we could well be looking at a 17-20 storm type season depending on the timings of the favorable phase of the MJO in the tropical Atlantic.

I'm seeing real signs of El Nino decaying now as the wind direction flips easterly (which is typically associated with cooling in the basin) and thus we should see some decent cooling in April of the ENSO zones and by July/August we will very likely be neutral, possibly even cold neutral and I wouldn't be all that surprised if a La Nina does try to develop by October...

SST anomalies have decreased a little but they are still sky-high and way above where we should be. Indeed we are as warm now as we normally are in late May!

Pressure forecasts still are pretty negative in the Caribbean/W.Atlantic as well...

I never thought I'd EVER say this again, esp so soon....but conditions are probably almost as good as we saw in 2005 at this stage and whilst I think to call for anything as extreme as that is not wise, I still am seeing a very active season, possibly one of the more active seasons in history.

My prelim numbers right now are:

18/10/5

Agreed, the SST set up is screaming 'angry season'. What will fascinate me is the prevalent track of these storms.

BFTP

[Cookie]

Agreed, the SST set up is screaming 'angry season'. What will fascinate me is the prevalent track of these storms.

BFTP

do you think we will get many Cape Verde Systems this year?

[Paranoid]

Things from the NHC and those SST charts would suggest we're going to see a fair few Cape Verde systems this year.

[Gray-Wolf]

Was it 05' that we had Cape Verdes swinging north and up the coast of Africa into the Med? I wonder if we will get any of those again this year? If SST's remain high then how far would they be able to make before decaying (and could the Med get warm enough to sustain one if it made it that far? I remember a south Atlantic 'cane in the early part of that year too! (they aren't supposed to be able to form there).

[Cookie]

Was it 05' that we had Cape Verdes swinging north and up the coast of Africa into the Med? I wonder if we will get any of those again this year? If SST's remain high then how far would they be able to make before decaying (and could the Med get warm enough to sustain one if it made it that far? I remember a south Atlantic 'cane in the early part of that year too! (they aren't supposed to be able to form there).

thats why I love it so much, mother nature dose what she wants to do, weather something is supposed to form thier or not we just have to sit and watch.

[Somerset Squall]

Was it 05' that we had Cape Verdes swinging north and up the coast of Africa into the Med? I wonder if we will get any of those again this year? If SST's remain high then how far would they be able to make before decaying (and could the Med get warm enough to sustain one if it made it that far? I remember a south Atlantic 'cane in the early part of that year too! (they aren't supposed to be able to form there).

That's a really interesting scenario, never happened before to my knowledge but you can never say never. You are right with 2005 having northeasterly forming storms heading towards Spain eg. Vince and Delta. Neither made it into the Med, however, I suppose they have to dodge a lot of land to make it.

[kold weather]

Was it 05' that we had Cape Verdes swinging north and up the coast of Africa into the Med? I wonder if we will get any of those again this year? If SST's remain high then how far would they be able to make before decaying (and could the Med get warm enough to sustain one if it made it that far? I remember a south Atlantic 'cane in the early part of that year too! (they aren't supposed to be able to form there).

Certainly interesting you raise the Med, I suspect there are at least 1-2 TC's in the Med each year, they tend to get ignored but in the summer lapse rates in the Med in theory are more then enough to support tropical cyclones. The main problem is you don't tend to get much in the way of organised low pressure systems in the Mid in the summer, still when you do get a LP in the med, esp when they come down from the NW, you'll tend to find they will gain warm core properties.

There are also some very interesting systems that develop also in late Autumn/ Early Winter as the Med SST's are still fairly warm but the upper air temps are cooling very rapidly, there is huge debate as to whether there are true TC's, but they DO usally process a shallow warm core which would be suggestive that these are often at least hybrid/subtropical in nature. If you want to look at a great case stufy, look at the Jan 95 system which got upto 75kts, there are various other systems that likely got upto hurricane strength as well in the past.

Anyway as for this season, I'm still seeing no reason to back off from my very agressive ideas, I still think this will be a 17-20 NS type season with a weak La Nina possibly developing towards the back end of the summer as we reach the meat of the season, everything is lining up perfectly for a very active season, I'll do an update blog sometime over the Easter weekend.

[Cookie]

I look forward to reading you'r blog update.

2 months till the start of the season.

[Cookie]

The SST's comparsion 2005 and 2010 again.

1 april 2010

2nd april 2005

as you can see the GOM was a lot warmer in 2005, but the rest of the atlantic is way ahead of 2005 in 2010.

and the warmer water is batterling into the GOM

[Cookie]

More charts to compare

5th April 2010

5th April 2009

5th april 2005

5th april 2010

[Iceberg]

Looking at SST anoms across the Atlantic, the east atlantic looks to be 2C above in places and could herald an early start maybe late May (Approx 5 weeks time).

Looking at the ITCZ it's still well south at approx 2N however leacing Africa at approx 8N.

Any systems would need to wind up pretty much as soon as leaving Africa until the ITCZ can go up beyond 5N.

Looking across at the GOM Areas, SST's remain considerably depressed so an early storm here looks unlikely atm.

[Cookie]

yup the GOM is slowly warming up, We're fast apporching the start of the east pacfic hurricane season.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not too worried about GOM , it'll warm up pretty fast, it's the global temps atm. With all that energy to tap into, and shear becoming less and less of an issue, it's stacking up to be a busy one I feel.

[Katherine]

For the record, here are the previous performances of the named storm systems this season.

P.H. stands for Previous History of the storm name since the current naming system was bought into usage in 1979.

Alex. Replaced Andrew after 1992. PH: TS 1998, Cat 3 2004.

Bonnie. PH: Cat 2 1980, Cat 1 1986, Cat 2 1992, Cat 3 1998, TS 2004.

Colin. First time on list, replacing Charley.

Danielle. PH: TS 1980, TS 1986, TS 1992, Cat 2 1998, Cat 2 2004.

Earl. PH: Cat 1 1980, Cat 2 1986, TS 1992, Cat 2 1998, TS 2004.

Fiona. First time on list, replacing Frances

Gaston. Replaced Georges after 1998. PH: Cat 1 2004.

Hermine. PH: TS 1980, unused 1986 & 1992. TS 1998, TS 2004

Igor. First time on list, replacing Ivan.

Julia. first time on list, replacing Jeanne.

Karl. PH: Cat 1 1980, unused 1986, 1992. Cat 2 1998, Cat 4 2004.

Lisa. PH: unused in 1980, 1986, 1992. Cat 1 1998, Cat 1 2004.

Matthew. Replaced Mitch in 2004 list. PH: TS 2004.

Nicole. PH: unused in 1980, 1986, 1992. Cat 1 1998, Sub TS 2004.

Otto. PH: unused 1980, 1986, 1992, 1998. TS 2004.

Paula. Name yet to be used.

Richard. Name yet to be used.

Shary. Name yet to be used.

Tomas. Name yet to be used.

Virginie. Name yet to be used.

Walter. Name yet to be used.

From those temperature maps, the SSTs of the Gulf of Mexico look to be pretty cool at the moment, with a strip of yellow along the east coast (which I am presuming means hotter than the GOM). Does this mean the potential for a few eastern seaboard hurricanes this season is pretty high, with lesser potential for hurricanes to funnel into the GOM?

[kold weather]

SST's don't really work that way with regards to track Katherine, still I think there are indications of a higher then normal risk threat to the east coast this year, esp if the AO stays in its broadly negative phase...

My big worry this season is with the El Nino decaying and other factors shifting the northern blocking will decay away and we develop a stronger subtropical belt just as things get going in the Atlantic, such a shift also kicked in during the 2004 season just as the hurricane season got going that year.

Temps are still very above average though the southern part of the MDR zone is cooling down compared to last month though there is still some exceptionally warm waters about in the eastern part of the basin.

As for an early start, my current thinking is a faster then normal start but probably the first few storms will lack in quality as I'm expecting any early storm to form from a cutoff low situation rather then a tropical wave, which is very typical El Nino type system, though its possible that if these don't occur we'll have to wait till mid-late July for our first system IMO.

I'm expecting a pretty active CV season this year and we will probably get a couple of long trackers as well.

My numbers are currently: 16/9/4 but we could easily end up adding another 1 or 2 more to all those numbers, overall I'm expecting a hyperactive season...

Finally, I've not had a chance yet to do a blog update but I'll have time tomorrow, so thats something I'll crack on with, I will talk more in depth about what I think along withthe ENSO state as well.

[Cookie]

thanks for posting Katherine very intresting and informative. Cant bealive richard hasn't been used before!!

[Katherine]

thanks for poosting Katherine very intresting and informative. Cant bealive richard hasn't been used before!!

I think I'm going to have to admit that I am a Data Junkie who can't stop making lists!!! I've got TEN in use in my other sphere of life as a keen birdwatcher!

[Cookie]

keep the data and the hurricane lists coming, love haveing something to read :lol:

[Cookie]

some more charts to compare

2010

2009

you can see the differnce

[Cookie]

more 2010 and 2005 charts

2005

2010

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like the eastern half of the East Pacific basin is much hotter this year too.

[summer blizzard]

more 2010 and 2005 charts

2005

2010

Wow, that chart really illustrates the scale of this years anomolies.

Must say, i plan to publish my forecast for the 2010 hurricane season in mid June (2 weeks in i know but i want May's data), though i will be giving some detailed thoughts in Mid May, and it looks to be a good one.

[Cookie]

GOM is really warming up now

SST anomaly's