Nasty Hurricane Season Lurking?

[Paranoid]

Are there any charts on wind shear or windshear anomalies? Would be good to compare them to the SSTs to see which areas are most likely to be active this year.

[summer blizzard]

Doubt we are going to see any activity until mid-May at the earliest, with a persistant positive PNA pattern, fronts are still reaching as far south as 15N, bringing shear and dry air to any possible convection, potential window around the 10th May , though unlikely given the lack of tropical waves as yet.

[kold weather]

To be fair even with conditions as good as they are at the moment you don't usually expect any actvity till Late May usually, anything before then is really just pot luck!

Still plenty of signs to suggest a real busy season. The Gulf is still below average for the time of year but with an upper high developing over the Gulf now, expect the surface temps to shot up in the next 10 days, esp given the strength of the loop current at the moment. So I wouldn't be all that surprised if we do get a fairly early system, though to be honest, I'm not expecting the first 45-60 days of the season to be too busy, the real fun will probably start with August IMO...though if we stay neutral rather than La Nina (Which I think WILL happen despite the models) its possible July could see a little more activity as well...

[Iceberg]

An northward movement of the ITCZ is very apparent over the last week or so, given a good piece of luck we might get our first bit of interest, maybe from the 11th/18th of May onwards.

A good swath of +27C from Africa to cuba and 28/29C across the ITCZ.

We need the moisture of Africa and the shear now to play ball, which will take a week or so IMO.

[kold weather]

SST's sure are unreal at the moment, though I think its still a little early yet for anything to crop up...could be some increasingly strong Waves moving off Africa in the next few weeks.

I've heard a lot about possible June system and thats the train I'm on so to speak, the MJO phase comes through in its 'wet' phase by then and the Caribbean looks more then warm enough as will a decent part of the Gulf by then.

Certainly expecting a big CV season this year though, hard to ignore those SST's really, being between 1-2C above average...which for the tropical Atlantic is pretty insane...just need to watch out for the SAL, as per normal...and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an early CV system as well, probabl in July....

[Cookie]

SST's on the rise in the Caribbean.

[Mesoscale]

The end of june to mid july please dont let there be a hurricane!! im going to cancun and i noticed the yucatan peninsula was a red area for hurricanes this year aslong as im out there and hurricane decides to come rolling in im good with that but not when im about to go.

Hopefully the el nino turns up as an el nino set up tend to have less atlantic hurricanes due to moisture pushing east.

(Correct me if im wrong with the moisture commment)

[Cookie]

GOM is really starting to warm up even in the past few days the difference.

[Cookie]

LOOK at the differnce between 2 days in the gulf of mexico

16 may

18 may

[Nick F]

Good news for those virtual hurricane watchers from the Met Office, an active Hurricane season:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100525.html

[Cookie]

Good news for those virtual hurricane watchers from the Met Office, an active Hurricane season:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100525.html

Thanks Nick. Not often we see you in this area of the site

[kold weather]

The NOAA forecase is out showing the expected range of numbers, the upper range is pretty immense!!

14-23 Named Storms

8-14 Hurricanes

3-7 Major Hurricanes

An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

Here is the full forecast:

http://www.cpc.noaa....hurricane.shtml

I'll issue my own forecast on here on the 31st of May, needless to say I'm expecting a busy one!

[Cookie]

The NOAA forecase is out showing the expected range of numbers, the upper range is pretty immense!!

14-23 Named Storms

8-14 Hurricanes

3-7 Major Hurricanes

An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

Here is the full forecast:

http://www.cpc.noaa....hurricane.shtml

I'll issue my own forecast on here on the 31st of May, needless to say I'm expecting a busy one!

I look forward to reading it mate

[kold weather]

Needless to say Cookie conditons alot are quite unreal according to the models, lower then normal pressure over the Atlantic, high SSTs and a La Nina are fuels for a big hurricane season, just need to hope the La Nina becomes too powerful and starts to have almost the opposite effect of what weaker La Nina's cause.

I don't think that will occur, and I think 2010 may not be far from the historic seasons of the past...

[Cookie]

its going to be a interesting watch, at least with the NOAA forecast coming out it will get into the public domain via all the different news agencies.

I have read a lot of debate over the wide range of the number of named storms they are saying from 14 - 23 as being to much of a big gap at one end of the scale being a hyper active season and other end being Average , what's your take on their being a 9 number gap?

[Gray-Wolf]

Very busy season given by NOAA!!!

I'm still wondering if we get a couple of Cape Verde storms being steered up the West coast of Africa by the 'Azores Low' that keeps appearing when the Atlantic gets blocked??

If this 'odd' situation of a Neg AO and a propensity toward Atlantic blocking continues then I'd not be surprised ig Aug saw a couple of 'stray' T.S./'canes on our side of the pond!!!

[kold weather]

I'm personally expecting a pretty big season this year with many factors that have been in play in some of the bigger seasons of the past 50 years or so.

Firstly we have to look at the SSTs. They are currently still running well above average from about 5N upto 25N which means it covers pretty much all of the deep tropics. The Gulf has warmed up and the Caribbean remains very warm as well and the Gulf Stream looks good, though temps near the East coast aren't as warm due to the troughing/90L combo over the last few weeks. Still the temperatures can only be compared with 2005 and the fact we are comparing it to that season is quite a scary prospect. Therefore that is a clearly very explosive signal. EVen if things do cool a touch during the summer, they should remain probably close to if not actually recording the record.

The El nino that was present in the Pacific over the winter has now totally decayed and is starting to get replaced by much colder water with a quick transition towards La Nina. La Nina typically reduces shear and therefore makes long tracking systems more likely when systems develop. I'm currently expecting a borderline weak/moderate La Nina with a range between -0.8C and -1.2C which would put it in about the same range as the La Nina that developed in 2007 and 1998, though the 2007 didn't really develop to that strength till the Autumn. As long as the La Nina doesn't become too potent it should have an effect, though I do think other conditions including the SSTs and other factors probably will play a bigger role this year.

Another factor that is being watched currently is the pressures in the Atlantic basin. The two best long range models (the CFS and the ECM) are both calling for well below average pressure. This is important because it makes it easier for storms to develop and on top of this lower background pressures tend to mean systems will get lower pressures when they strengthen. The 2005 was a classic example of that where the Pacific Monsoonal trough extended eastwards into the Caribbean and Gulf and allowed 3 Hurricanes to break into the top 10 lowest pressure list. Whilst I'm not expecting something quite that extreme, the lower pressures have been present with many of the big recent seasons.

Other smaller factors this year I'm watching is firstly the continuing lower than normal temperatures in the upper Atmosphere. This is important because it increases the lapse rates which help to deepen the convection which is a key factor in helping to develop storms, esp in the formative stages. I'm also expecting a pretty strong wave train this year coming out from Africa with Indian Oceanic temperatures also running well above average which should also help with keeping the SAL down, though I suspect we will have strong outbreaks in July with the ITCZ lifting northwards as systems develop quite quickly, The easterly trades will also stream across should help to provide good condtions aloft in terms of divergence.

If I had to place a highest risk zone I'd suggest the E.Caribbean, The Yucatan south through to Mexico/Central America, the Bahamas upto the Carolinas and the E.Gulf. That being said I think many areas are at much greater risk this season simply because of higher numbers this season.

I suspect a slightly above average June and July with 2-3 storms developing in June and July, with possibly an early Cape Verde type system in July, with a general higher risk than normal of something forming east of 50W at the very least in July. I suspect this will be followed by an explolsive couple of months probably between the 10th August-15th October which could well see a good 12-13NS develop in a 60 day period as conditions look explosive, and even those numbers could quite easily be a little on the low side. I also expect an above average latter part of the season with the maturing La Nina helping to prolong the favourable conditions.

I'll go for a conservative 17/10/5...could be higher if the early season kicks in more than I expect at the moment. If June/July do follow more typical developing moderate La Nina climatology then the NS number could be just a touch lower in the end, but should still be decently above average.

[Cookie]

Great Read as always Kold thanks for putting the time and effort into that post.

[johnholmes]

yes a very well thought out post as usual from Kold

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for posting Kold, explains well the favourable factors in a way that isn't too complicated. Going to be an interesting year.

[kold weather]

I was listening to Joe. B last night on a live streaming show from the US and he made a lot of very interesting obs, it was quite interesting to listen and hear some backing up of my own ideas from a full time met, esp the whole idea of the hot waters to the west of India helping to aid a strong Monsoon helping to promote a stronger wave train then normal coming into the Atlantic...

Anyway here is the link:

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/7381223

[Gray-Wolf]

The above makes me wonder just how naughty the season will be with so many factors conspiring!

[Cookie]

The above makes me wonder just how naughty the season will be with so many factors conspiring!

yup everything is really lining up to be one heck of a season.

thanks for posting that mate.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The above makes me wonder just how naughty the season will be with so many factors conspiring!

Hi GW,

As others have said, another piece in a jigsaw that points to a busy season. Interesting the way it's presented, no apparent mention of all the other factors. Do you think it's 'reporting by press release'?

[summer blizzard]

SUMMER BLIZZARDS OFFICAL FORECAST!

Neutral ENSO conditions persisting.

Negative QBO conditions persisting.

My offical forecast based upon the MEI, QBO and AO anologues of 2005, 2003, 1998 and 1988 is..

19-21 Tropical Storms

9-11 Hurricanes

4-6 Major Hurricanes

We should fall short on 2005, however a well above average Atlantic Hurricane season is forecast!