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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Please discuss the current model output here :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    my company has just received a forecast for sleet / snow during this weekend , what forecast are you basing your comments of a dry spell for all.

    It will remain dry today and tomorrow , then friday will be quite a stormy day before much colder air spreads across the uk during the weekend .

    I was judging that by the model runs this morning, perhaps with an emphasis on the GFS because it breaks down everything into hours rather than days. Though even if the system in the North Sea did travel a little further west than what is shown, I doubt it would be stormy - cold and breezy. It's not a terribly deep feature until it's way out of the way.

    Then the high looks like being a nuisance until mid next week. That's all I am basing my idea of a dry spell on. :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    I was judging that by the model runs this morning, perhaps with an emphasis on the GFS because it breaks down everything into hours rather than days. Though even if the system in the North Sea did travel a little further west than what is shown, I doubt it would be stormy - cold and breezy. It's not a terribly deep feature until it's way out of the way.

    Then the high looks like being a nuisance until mid next week. That's all I am basing my idea of a dry spell on. :good:

    Dry certainly sums up the model output this morning.

    The fax charts suggest a weakening band of rain possibly turning to snow during Friday/Sat.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

    However even now im not convinced that Fax is correct and I reckon the SW will be slightly further E. The outlook is far from stormy and we're looking at a rather boring non descript weather pattern that could last until mid March.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

    People wishing for the Atlantic to come back because there is nice fat high bringing us some sunshine ought to be hung and quartered*. Go out, enjoy the actual weather, switch off the computer, get a life!!

    Excellent models outputs, a period of quiet weather, Atlantic dominance is on the cards by mid-month onwards and one suspects this time it will be real (of course the return of the swlies has been progred many times without delivering) rather than figment of the models "imagination".

    * Not really eh, I'm joking, thank you...

    Morning LB I have to say I’m with you on this, especially as I work outside most of the day. The Atlantic can stay away for a good long while yet, we see plenty of it in this part of the UK, and so a spell without it is to be enjoyed. As it now looks as if a spell of wintry weather is not on the cards, then fine and settled with frosts but bright warm days will do me just fine, yesterday was glorious.

    Interesting to see that the Euros have backed towards the GFS, which stuck to it guns, so credit to the GFS this time. Like so many times this winter we see a potentially bitter easterly amount to not much. It’s a shame but given that we have seen a good winter this year does it really matter. Looking ahead it does seem that we might see a return of a more Atlantic driven regime mid-month on, but that’s subject to revision so not worth getting too caught up with just yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    Dry certainly sums up the model output this morning.

    The fax charts suggest a weakening band of rain possibly turning to snow during Friday/Sat.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

    However even now im not convinced that Fax is correct and I reckon the SW will be slightly further E. The outlook is far from stormy and we're looking at a rather boring non descript weather pattern that could last until mid March.

    In other words apart from one rouge run the GFS was right all along . I have been impressed with the GFS since it's upgrade (The ensembles excluded) . Well done that Model.

    The only thing I will say is and GFS has agreed it will be cool , Cold this weekend with a fair bit of cloud and Cold air very close by , In this situation I would have much rather had a Sunny high but at the minute that doesn't look likely at least not at first.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    In other words apart from one rouge run the GFS was right all along . I have been impressed with the GFS since it's upgrade (The ensembles excluded) . Well done that Model.

    The only thing I will say is and GFS has agreed it will be cool , Cold this weekend with a fair bit of cloud and Cold air very close by , In this situation I would have much rather had a Sunny high but at the minute that doesn't look likely at least not at first.

    Yes and this is why i've backed the GFS these past few days. Around the +144/+192 I find the GFS fairly unreliable and prefer the UKMO/ECM but between 0/+72 I tend to back the GFS whatever the output is suggesting. This winter has proved to be yet another great learning experience and I shall take this with me ready for next winter. Read my post from last night because the pattern with these models that I described wil prove useful next winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole Dorset
  • Location: Poole Dorset

    I believe even the threat of anything wintry in the SE Fri-Sat will have the life squeezed out of it by the high pushing south. GFS suggests to me cold winds and periods of cloudy murk. At least its dry.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    Yes and this is why i've backed the GFS these past few days. Around the +144/+192 I find the GFS fairly unreliable and prefer the UKMO/ECM but between 0/+72 I tend to back the GFS whatever the output is suggesting. This winter has proved to be yet another great learning experience and I shall take this with me ready for next winter. Read my post from last night because the pattern with these models that I described wil prove useful next winter.

    I Agree with all that and I read your post from last night . The 6z takes the SW Further East again , but the same as 0z during Saturday the PPN seems to get dragged back towards Eastern UK by the Easterly Flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    this isnt quite finished yet and to credit the GFS completely is a little incorrect as some of its runs stuck the shortwave denmark and even further east. the fact that some of the ukmo runs had it just off the kent coast means that both models were sometimes as wrong as each other. as is usual in these cases the truth looks like being somewhere inbetween the varying model thoughts. the 12z's from yesterday were trending towards agreement on holland and the 00z's seem to have firmed up on this being the case. puts us a bit too far from the action as i think we need intensity of precip to bring the 0c isotherm down to a level that gives us snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    Yes it looks to be a good call by TEITS. Looking at the GFS 06z chart at t72 and this to me

    sums up why model watching is so addictive, just three days ago the model was showing

    a bitterly cold snowy easterly yet now there is no trace of this in fact the GFS is showing

    7c for Saturday as opposed to -1c and snow just a few days ago.

    Even though we missed out on what could have been a severe winter, in terms of model

    watching it will take a hell of a lot of beating. From mid December till present has been a

    great ride can it be repeated next winter I wonder.

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    Well CC i think scotland and northern ireland have had a severe winter and down here not far off one either, depends on what your definition of severe is but in scotland i`m sure some will say they have had as near to severe they have ever known.

    It feels bitterly cold for March this morning nevermind what saturday shows and with bone chilling dewpoints like this for early next week, mild it ain't.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12610.png

    Nights will actually be alot colder than if we had a brisk easterly flow :good:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png cold.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    Well CC i think scotland and northern ireland have had a severe winter and down here not far off one either, depends on what your definition of severe is but in scotland i`m sure some will say they have had as near to severe they have ever known.

    If you had read my earlier post you would see that I said Scotland had a severe winter which they have.

    The winter for England and Wales although cold was not severe although I am only talking about low

    lying areas of England and Wales here.

    Even on this 06z run by the GFS we are so close to a very potent easterly to our east and southeast, and

    would surely have brought a very memorable cold spell to the UK had it been a few hundred miles further

    northwest.

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    Guest North Sea Snow Convection

    It would have been great to have a seen a few more snow showers this weekend, but high pressure domination and some quiet settled weather is still extremely welcome and as long as it keeps wind and rain at bay from the atlantic then the suggestion pattern is very fine by mesmile.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Yes it looks to be a good call by TEITS. Looking at the GFS 06z chart at t72 and this to me

    sums up why model watching is so addictive, just three days ago the model was showing

    a bitterly cold snowy easterly yet now there is no trace of this in fact the GFS is showing

    7c for Saturday as opposed to -1c and snow just a few days ago.

    Even though we missed out on what could have been a severe winter, in terms of model

    watching it will take a hell of a lot of beating. From mid December till present has been a

    great ride can it be repeated next winter I wonder.

    Cheers CC.

    I must admit I feel worn out from viewing all the models this winter and will enjoy the break. Shame many of the very cold E,lys didn't occur and for me the crucial stage was during Jan when the Scandi trough failed to sink S. As you remember when the models progressively moved this S a repeat of Feb 1947 synoptics looked likely. Having said all of this if the models were predictable it would make following them rather boring.

    Back to the 06Z and if this verified we could see massive differences in the max/min temps ranging from -7C rising to +7. Quiet plausible considering the projected synoptics. I feel the general pattern for this month is going to be a dry, quiet settled first half before turning mild. unsettled for the 2nd half.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    Cheers CC.

    I must admit I feel worn out from viewing all the models this winter and will enjoy the break. Shame many of the very cold E,lys didn't occur and for me the crucial stage was during Jan when the Scandi trough failed to sink S. As you remember when the models progressively moved this S a repeat of Feb 1947 synoptics looked likely. Having said all of this if the models were predictable it would make following them rather boring.

    Back to the 06Z and if this verified we could see massive differences in the max/min temps ranging from -7C rising to +7. Quiet plausible considering the projected synoptics. I feel the general pattern for this month is going to be a dry, quiet settled first half before turning mild. unsettled for the 2nd half.

    Id go with that except i'd expect a 2 day Northerly before the Mild set's in ... Or is that wishful thinking :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny and Dry with a Hard Frost.
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey

    I seem to be locked into an 'opposites' position with a few on here at the moment. The evolution on the model front in the last 24 to 26 hours suggests to me that a change to milder conditions seems as far away as ever for the time being (particularly for south/south east). Mind you I was still stupid enough to go out without a coat this morning! Doh!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The weather we are experiencing at the moment is pretty much perfect in my opinion, and long may it continue.

    It should be noted that the reason we are'nt seeing high maxima is down to the fact that there is no heat pool in Europe anywhere other than Greece and Turkey, though if we can send the high further south east we should draw some warmer temperatures up through Spain, though modeling suggests no end to the blocked pattern in sight and we could well see some expeceptional sunshine values.

    I'll leave you with one of the best looking charts for March which i have ever seen..

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn483.png

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    No summer blizzard March 2003 was perfect springlike weather.

    I'm hoping we can pull up some warm 850`s like in March 2003, had my fill of cold weather now to be honest it just seems to go on and on, some nice mild dewpoints would be very welcome indeed, its just been so cold this week out of the sun, my bedroom is really cold when i get home in the evening as it's opposite facing to the sun.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00120030317.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2003/Rrea00220030317.gif

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk

    If you had read my earlier post you would see that I said Scotland had a severe winter which they have.

    The winter for England and Wales although cold was not severe although I am only talking about low

    lying areas of England and Wales here.

    Even on this 06z run by the GFS we are so close to a very potent easterly to our east and southeast, and

    would surely have brought a very memorable cold spell to the UK had it been a few hundred miles further

    northwest.

    Coldest for 31 years for the UK, 47 years for Scotland - I fail to understand what exactly you are expecting/looking for.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    I posted a response to Cooling Climate's kind of assertion earlier in the model output discussion. The fact is, unless you have a winter featuring every synoptic snow setup imaginable (as 1978/79 did) you're going to get some areas having significantly more cold and snow than others even in a very cold snowy winter. Many north-western districts did not have particularly snowy winters in either 1947 or 1963. This winter, the synoptics have favoured Scotland and northern England more than southern England.

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    Coldest for 31 years for the UK, 47 years for Scotland - I fail to understand what exactly you are expecting/looking for.

    Now how about this for a bit of hopecasting or strawclutching but there are hints in the

    ensembles that we might see an upgrade to the easterly towards the end of the weekend

    and into next week.

    The 06z GFS run brought it very close to our shores during next week and as I say some of

    the ensembles are suggesting a much colder feed than what we have seen in the models

    the last day or so. Worth keeping an eye on.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Now how about this for a bit of hopecasting or strawclutching but there are hints in the

    ensembles that we might see an upgrade to the easterly towards the end of the weekend

    and into next week.

    The 06z GFS run brought it very close to our shores during next week and as I say some of

    the ensembles are suggesting a much colder feed than what we have seen in the models

    the last day or so. Worth keeping an eye on.

    have you seen that cold air to our east its pretty dam cold.

    and i noticed that on the ens aswell i admit im hopecasting lol.

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn962.png

    The arctic plunge edges towards us on this run with some very cold dewpoints, wishing for some warmth now so not good news.

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn9610.png

    http://www.meteociel...N72-7.GIF?03-17 - Blimey.

    some serious cold in the northern hemisphere blimey if the arctic dont freeze good i be very suprised.

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