Model Output Discussion

[cooling climate]

Errr when was I talking about GFS.

Anyway you won't get any out of the GFS in the reliable time frame either or just outside it.

The 12z GFS run only seems to be running on Meteociel.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Those wanting the easterlies or northeasterlies shown by 06z GFS to materialise, they may well bring cold, grey and damp weather off the North Sea. Not my idea of fun after these last few days of spring sunshine here. But each one to their own. I’m still haunted when we get to this time of year, after getting into the swing of spring sunshine, of a spell in April 2000 – when we a had a few days of cold nagging easterlies bringing slate grey skies with sleet. My favoured wind direction this time of year would be a polar northerly, bringing sunshine and heavy showers inland as the sun gains strength, not really much sign of that happening atm.

It depends on how cold the upper air and thicknesses are. I think an easterly with thicknesses below about 522 dam and 850s below about -6C would still bring sunshine and snow showers, even into April, but the "catch" is that such easterlies become increasingly rare as we head through the season as they have to have an arctic source. Last evening's ECM gave a classic example of a snowy/showery easterly, but this morning's ECM showed easterlies which have "cold, grey and damp" written all over them.

As it happens I think southern areas would be predominantly dull and damp if the GFS 06Z was to materialise, mainly because fronts stall over the south and the very cold polar air doesn't get south of Scotland until well out in FI. Indeed, very similar to early April 2000, when in Tyneside we had two days of overcast raw weather and rain & sleet, followed by one day of sunshine and snow showers- later in the same month the 10th-12th saw cloud, rain and 4-6C by day and night from a similar setup.

I agree that a polar northerly is far more reliable for the "sunshine and showers" scenario at this time of year- and this becomes increasingly true later in the season. It would not take a large modification of the FI setup for us to get one though- less LP to the south and a stronger Scandinavian Low would produce that result.

[The PIT]

The 12z GFS run only seems to be running on Meteociel.

12 oz GFS is out and a fairly mild run. Double figures at midday for most of England for a lot of the run. Some cooler air over Scotland and Northern England with unfavourable dew points in FI land but some very mild temps coming in the next few days.

[johnholmes]

The 12z GFS run only seems to be running on Meteociel.

Try our very own NW its on there, either the free version or on Extra?

[yamkin]

12 oz GFS is out and a fairly mild run. Double figures at midday for most of England for a lot of the run. Some cooler air over Scotland and Northern England with unfavourable dew points in FI land but some very mild temps coming in the next few days.

Does it snow at 15C ???? LOL.

UKMO 12Z is out and 144h is looking cooler Let's see what ECM 12Z shows.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Don't be misled by the blues on that chart- they're dark because of the low pressure. The UKMO T+144 is a classic case of a west based negative NAO setting up too far west to bring cold wintry weather to the UK. The UKMO charts, for whatever reason, often lack detail, so if that scenario was to come off we might see more in the way of fronts and inputs of tropical maritime air giving cloudy damp weather. However, if that chart came off exactly as shown, it would mean sunshine and showers in a nutshell, with warm temperatures- and this kind of cyclonic south-westerly with returning polar maritime air is not uncommon in spring (take 18-24 April 2000 for example- a spell when "April showers" really lived up to their name with a high incidence of thunder across the country).

[cooling climate]

Those wanting the easterlies or northeasterlies shown by 06z GFS to materialise, they may well bring cold, grey and damp weather off the North Sea. Not my idea of fun after these last few days of spring sunshine here. But each one to their own. I’m still haunted when we get to this time of year, after getting into the swing of spring sunshine, of a spell in April 2000 – when we a had a few days of cold nagging easterlies bringing slate grey skies with sleet. My favoured wind direction this time of year would be a polar northerly, bringing sunshine and heavy showers inland as the sun gains strength, not really much sign of that happening atm.

According to the ECM run your wish has been granted. Mind you at 10 days out it is

I suppose an outsider at this stage.

[LomondSnowstorm]

That's eye candy for me! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?17-0

[Eugene]

Looks like staying above average for the next week, just like with the cold weather in the winter dominating any mild was over a week away, same now but with roles reversed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

It seems some are now looking for cold weather on the charts more than they did in the winter, you would of thought after all the cold we had they would be tired of it by now, anyway if these people who moaned that the coldest winter since 1979 wasnt good enough how the hell are cold weather patterns going to make them happy in late March into April when things become much more marginal for snow :lol:

[yamkin]

That's eye candy for me! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?17-0

More eye candy at 240h :lol:

[Nick F]

Looking at the 12z output, looks like a notable amplification in the flow upstream this weekend over N America, with a deep trough digging south across the east side which in turn builds heights N and NE towards Greenland early-mid next week. Because the core of the Polar Vortex looks to remain over northern Canada the upper low over the N Atlantic between UK and Greenland looks to eventually form a closed circulation to the SW or W of the UK, as heights build to the N and W of it. Where this cut-off low positions itself will affect how cold or mild the air will be over the UK, 12Z GFS op shows the low further north and west so flow less cold than the 12z ECM op solution which has the upper low further south.

[carnun]

Looks like staying above average for the next week, just like with the cold weather in the winter dominating any mild was over a week away, same now but with roles reversed.

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

It seems some are now looking for cold weather on the charts more than they did in the winter, you would of thought after all the cold we had they would be tired of it by now, anyway if these people who moaned that the coldest winter since 1979 wasnt good enough how the hell are cold weather patterns going to make them happy in late March into April when things become much more marginal for snow

:lol: good point. if i lived in Scotland i'd have been more than happy with this winter. Seeing as i don't i'd love to see some more late season snow because waiting another 8 or nine months for it is just too damn long..:lol:

[The PIT]

ECM walks it's own path but again that's mainly because it's FI land so differences are too expected. So if you're doing a long range forecast you can safely safe it's going to be either cold or warm with snow or rain.

At the moment it's very hard too spot a trend if any in FI land.

[cooling climate]

good point. if i lived in Scotland i'd have been more than happy with this winter. Seeing as i don't i'd love to see some more late season snow because waiting another 8 or nine months for it is just too damn long..

Quite agree, late season cold snaps and some transitory snow makes for a much more interesting

spring unless the weather is quite settled and fairly mild like it has been of late. Normal changeable

spring weather from the west, southwest is tedious as is Autumn weather.

[SteveB]

0z shows a cooler setup next week with frosts at night and average by day.

The control has little support, with the mean around zero on the ensembles.

http://www.netweathe...=ensviewer;sess=

Edited March 18, 2010 by SteveB

[Eugene]

good point. if i lived in Scotland i'd have been more than happy with this winter

The point is if you want winters anywhere as good as the winter just gone its best you move to northern scotland where they are much more likely, i`m afraid winters as cold as 2009/10 for the UK as a whole come along very infrequently.

I wouldnt mind some colder weather either i like all types but to want it because you didnt get enough in the past winter is being spoilt, how many winters fail to record milder nights than 5C since mid Dec, cant recall of any offhand apart from 1 in 300 year events like 1962/63.

Looks like going back to normal temp next week wise but still unsettled no potent cold spell just yet

[mushymanrob]

It seems some are now looking for cold weather on the charts more than they did in the winter, you would of thought after all the cold we had they would be tired of it by now, anyway if these people who moaned that the coldest winter since 1979 wasnt good enough how the hell are cold weather patterns going to make them happy in late March into April when things become much more marginal for snow

ive got to fully agree with this....

meanwhile the gfs 00z continues to promise the continuation of 'normal' spring weather.... no heatwaves, no cold (as in freezing)but just a nice mellow mix, ideal for spring!

[johnholmes]

Yes a reasonable mix as you say Mushy.

What new folk might find interesting, if they have already paid for the Extra version of charts, is to go to the msl-dewpoint suite of charts. Play that through to see how the dewpoints change. I have to say that much of the time, in spite of reasonable temperatures at the beginning and right at the end of what some call FI the green colours predominate, even some blue for a time before the latter end of FI. So probably feeling 'cool' rather than 'warm' much of the time in any breeze but pleasant enough out of it. certainly a spring mix seems the preferred idea. Blocking remains well north apart from one shortish spell but it could develop into a more pronounced spell but I'd currently rate that risk as 40:60.

[cooling climate]

The point is if you want winters anywhere as good as the winter just gone its best you move to northern scotland where they are much more likely, i`m afraid winters as cold as 2009/10 for the UK as a whole come along very infrequently.

I wouldnt mind some colder weather either i like all types but to want it because you didnt get enough in the past winter is being spoilt, how many winters fail to record milder nights than 5C since mid Dec, cant recall of any offhand apart from 1 in 300 year events like 1962/63.

1. I would much rather winters such as 68/69,78/79,81/82,84/85,85/86,and 90/91 where the

cold spells were more severe and snowier.

The winter of 2009/10 was a cold winter but after the snow thawed mid January the rest of

the winter was Quite forgettable unless you like coldish, cold rain and overcast set ups.

2. I along with a good many other posters both on this site and elsewhere believe that due to

solar forcing amonst other things northern blocking will now be a lot more frequent. This trend

started a couple of years back and is I think likely to continue.

Do not be surprised to see a CET winter such as 78/79 or colder to come along much sooner

than you think and even if some winters in the future are not quite as cold as this one has been

I think we will still see some severe periods of winter weather due to the northern blocking.

3. I do not think anyone is wanting to see some spring snow to make up for what they did not

receive during the winter months. They want to see such synoptics and weather for the same

reasons they want to see it during the winter months IE they enjoy that type of weather be it

spring, summer, autumn or winter.

[Eugene]

Pressure rise to our south, not good news for the coldies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

[D KARLSON]

[blocking remains well north apart from one shortish spell but it could develop into a more pronounced spell but I'd currently rate that risk as 40:60.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Pressure rise to our south, not good news for the coldies.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png

You were a 'coldie' barely a fortnight ago. I think your analysis of the models is simply influenced by your personal seasonal switch in preferences - the latest one since March started.

It doesn't look clear cut for a cold outcome however in this instance - as a consistent 'coldie' myself but speaking objectively. With the pattern setting up too far west then it means wind and rain to go with the higher temps that many others are looking for.

Other than a drier and colder easterly, then a polar northerly with bright sunshine and wintry showers would indeed be a much much better outcome than the one the models appear to be favouring. It could be that we see some of those conditions eventually as the pattern migrates east with time and we get onto the colder drier side of the polar front - but it increasingly looks as if we have are going to have endure a cyclonic/south westerly pattern in the meantime with low pressure over or just to the west of us yet again along with the block to the north once more too far west. Showers are likely indeed in the tropical maritime airstream - but very much the wrong type of showers and wrong wind direction at least imo.

Edited March 18, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[The PIT]

Uhm promising ECM deadly GFS. GFS being the more consistent one at the moment while ECM is swapping around every run. Looking like we're going back to the familiar pattern of mild maybe not as warm as the present days but still on the mild side.

[Coast]

New model output discussion here folks: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62081-model-output-discussion/