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South Atlantic Disturbance (Brazil: 18S 38W)


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Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    An area of disturbed weather has formed off the coast of Brazil, near 18S 38W. This disturbance has the potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression early next week. Satellite winds estimates from the WindSat instrument show an elongated area of converging winds, but no organized surface circulation. Satellite loops show little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 28°C, about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm.

    Several global models, such as the ECMWF, UKMET, and NOGAPS models have been developing this system in recent runs. Phase space diagrams form Florida State University confirm that this storm is expected to primarily be a warm-cored system, meaning it will probably be classifiable as a subtropical or tropical storm if it attains surface wind speeds of at least 39 mph. The system is capable of bringing heavy rains to the Brazilian coast while it is in its formative stages over the next few days, but I doubt that these rains would be heavy enough to cause flooding concerns. By Monday, the storm should be headed southwards or south-eastwards out to sea, and it appears unlikely that Brazil would see tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph from this system. I give this storm a low (< 30% chance) of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday.

    Jeff Masters

    mar5.jpg

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=1442

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

    BEGIN

    NHC_ATCF

    invest_sl802010.invest

    FSTDA

    R

    U

    040

    010

    0000

    201003052133

    NONE

    NOTIFY=ATRP

    END

    TEST, SL, Q, , , , , 80, 2010, TD, O, 2010030518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , SL802010

    SL, 80, 2010030500, , BEST, 0, 181S, 253W, 20, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

    SL, 80, 2010030506, , BEST, 0, 187S, 270W, 20, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

    SL, 80, 2010030512, , BEST, 0, 194S, 284W, 20, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

    SL, 80, 2010030518, , BEST, 0, 200S, 300W, 20, 1009, TD,

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    UK Met still keen on this one becoming a tropical storm, sea temps are certainly high enough at 28C:

    MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

    AND ATLANTIC

    GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.03.2010

    NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

    FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 24.2S 39.7W

    VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

    -------------- -------- -------- --------

    00UTC 08.03.2010 24.2S 39.7W WEAK

    12UTC 08.03.2010 27.3S 42.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    00UTC 09.03.2010 29.4S 45.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

    12UTC 09.03.2010 30.1S 47.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

    00UTC 10.03.2010 30.1S 47.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

    12UTC 10.03.2010 30.6S 47.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

    00UTC 11.03.2010 31.4S 47.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

    12UTC 11.03.2010 32.1S 45.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

    00UTC 12.03.2010 33.5S 42.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

    12UTC 12.03.2010 35.4S 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

    00UTC 13.03.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

    RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

    AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

    MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed, and that's why the rare occuring tropical disturbances in the South Atlantic often don't become tropical cyclones.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    This system is now a tropical cyclone.

    NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

    847 AM EST WED MAR 10 2010

    GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

    SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 00Z MAR 10). THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS

    A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 45W EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE

    NORTHWEST INTO BRASIL ALONG 20S 50W. THIS FEATURE IS DECOUPLING

    FROM A WARM CORE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL...WITH

    CLOSED CIRCULATION ESTIMATED NEAR 29.6S 48.2W. ALTHOUGH A

    TIGHT/COMPACT STORM...IT IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE

    RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL.

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