Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Cookie]

90L is a gonna

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010052112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010

AL, 90, 2010052112, , BEST, 0, 224N, 705W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

AL, 90, 2010052118, , BEST, 0, 223N, 702W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 155, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

AL, 90, 2010052200, , BEST, 0, 223N, 699W, 20, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 155, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

AL, 90, 2010052206, , BEST, 0, 223N, 696W, 20, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 90, 2010052212, , BEST, 0, 224N, 693W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052218, , BEST, 0, 229N, 690W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052300, , BEST, 0, 233N, 687W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 205, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052306, , BEST, 0, 241N, 690W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 90, 2010052312, , BEST, 0, 248N, 692W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 205, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052318, , BEST, 0, 255N, 693W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 205, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052400, , BEST, 0, 262N, 694W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052406, , BEST, 0, 266N, 697W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 90, 2010052412, , BEST, 0, 270N, 700W, 35, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052418, , BEST, 0, 279N, 704W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052500, , BEST, 0, 286N, 708W, 40, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052506, , BEST, 0, 293N, 713W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 90, 2010052512, , BEST, 0, 299N, 720W, 40, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 260, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052518, , BEST, 0, 308N, 725W, 40, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052600, , BEST, 0, 314N, 740W, 40, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052606, , BEST, 0, 320N, 755W, 40, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 90, 2010052612, , BEST, 0, 312N, 765W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052618, , BEST, 0, 310N, 762W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

AL, 90, 2010052700, , BEST, 0, 308N, 756W, 25, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

AL, 90, 2010052706, , BEST, 0, 308N, 752W, 25, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

AL, 90, 2010052712, , BEST, 0, 307N, 738W, 30, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 65, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

AL, 90, 2010052718, , BEST, 0, 308N, 729W, 30, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[Cookie]

we now have 91L

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[kold weather]

Yep we have 91L now.

91L is the direct remains of Agatha that crossed Central America and exited in Belieze about 36hrs ago. The system is currently only slowly drifting northwards and currently is displaying a pretty deep ball of convection. There isn't any real solid evidence of a LLC though obs are a little on the sparse side, any circulation is probably on the western side of the convection. From a structural/organisation point of view, it'd be easier to just say there is none at the moment!

Conditions aloft are marginal for further development and only get worse the further north this system gets. Shear is currently at 15kts as the system sits on the NW edge of an upper high which is situated over the far Central Southern Caribbean, just 100-200 miles further north shear increases to 25-35kts which is a killer for anything trying to organise.

Simply put, given its current motion and track I'd suggest the chances of development are probably somewhere as low as 2-3% for this system, its unlikely to form though of course you can't totally rule it out.

[Cookie]

91L

gone wasn't really ever going to do anything, but like Kold said you can never rule things out totally

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[Cookie]

we now have 92L

[Cookie]

Looking Organized in the eastern Atlantic

[kold weather]

This is a very rare creature we have possibly on our hands here...

92L is very far east and south for a June system, and if it was to develop it'd be the furtherest east to ever occur, with only 3 systems forming east of 60W in June full stop...which shows the sort of ground we are in right now.

Anyway 92L is looking very good with some strong convection still with the system, as you'd expect having just come out of the D-min. This convection could well aid a LLC to develop with enough time, though its always going to be hard to get something to get going that far south and close to the equater, so it'll probably lift out at some point soon if its going to develop. Nice big size to the system as its drawing in energy from the ITCZ with no real other waves to compete with it.

Still conditions aloft are quite amazing for the time of year in the E/C.Atlantic...the reason it looks like an August/September type system right now is it is effectivly in waters/upper atmoshperic conditions that are akin to what you'd see in the peak of the hurricane season. A nice strong Upper high is over the system right now with shear running to the north, esp the further west you get around a TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough, which will have its own jet streak running around it, hence higher shear) high SST's and pretty much no SAL at all, which is probably thanks to the fact this system is so far south its almost tucked itself away from the SAL.

It probably has 36-48hrs of this pretty primed conditions before it heads towards the higher shear to the north and west of the system. I'd have thought therefore whilst a TD/low end TS is quite possible, anything beyond that is pretty unlikely. So therefore I think chances are actually not too bad that we see the Atlantic's first depression from this area, I'd put it at 50-50 right now, but that could well increase over the next 12-24hrs.

Amazing stuff, lets hope this isn't the first warning salvo being shot for this season.

[Cookie]

Up to code orange this morning. really interesting system we have here.

[pyrotech]

The models have put the track of 92 to move West Northwest and that puts it in very warm moist waters probably by late Monday / Tuesday with potential so much so that i called the image Alex track

.

Anyway here is the cone that so far all the models predict.

[kold weather]

The only problem for 92L at the moment is the shear is increasing to the north of the system with a drier more stable level of air also now to the north of the system, so the longer the system stays south of that region the better for its chances. Probably has a 36-48hr window to develop, once it does the shear levels will increase and the SAL to the north will likely become injested...

That being said I think it has enough time to develop into at least our first tropical depression of the season...will it become Alex, thats a little more uncertain, but I'd say the odds of it developing into a TD are fairly high, and until shear increases, conditions aloft look pretty good for further development.

It's just amazing to think we have a proto CV storm developing...in mid June, actually unheard off!

Edited June 13, 2010 by kold weather

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates KOLD, btw where is SS?

Weather Underground Blog

In utter shock, the tropical wave that I was tracking over Africa last week and expected to develop in the Caribbean has defy all known fact of Atlantic Tropical Climatology and is now nearing depression status in the Eastern Atlantic. Satellite images taken of the Atlantic shows a rather disturbing scene at the start of what is expected to be "one hell of a season."

Satellite imagery showed a bone chilling image of an organizing cyclone near 8N-33W moving west-northwest near 10-15 knots. Banding continues to increase around a possible but broad closed low-level circulation and I suspect that we may have Tropical Depression 1 before the day’s end and Alex by Monday. There is still some vertical shear affecting the system from the east but that is likely due to the upper anticyclone superimposition over the low. Further analysis of the circulation revealed it continues to get stronger as it nears 10N. Environmental conditions are favourable for continued development with very warm sea surface temperatures, upper anticyclonic outflow, deep moisture field and low vertical shear. Much of the intensity guidances keep shear very low as 92L heads west, reaching moderate to strong tropical storm intensity by 2-4 days. Intensity begins to drop afterwards due to increasing shear as the system nears the Caribbean in about 5-7 days. I suspect that gradual intensification may lead to a moderate tropical storm in about 2-3 based with the consensus of the intensity models and the environmental conditions such as the availability of ocean heat content. I suspect if the system stays below 15-20N, that intensification will occur until reaching the SE Caribbean where high levels of shear may weaken the system

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/show.html?entrynum=380

Edited June 13, 2010 by cookie

[pyrotech]

The only problem for 92L at the moment is the shear is increasing to the north of the system with a drier more stable level of air also now to the north of the system, so the longer the system stays south of that region the better for its chances. Probably has a 36-48hr window to develop, once it does the shear levels will increase and the SAL to the north will likely become injested...

That being said I think it has enough time to develop into at least our first tropical depression of the season...will it become Alex, thats a little more uncertain, but I'd say the odds of it developing into a TD are fairly high, and until shear increases, conditions aloft look pretty good for further development.

It's just amazing to think we have a proto CV storm developing...in mid June, actually unheard off!

Yes and its another upgrade as potential for development has just gone up to 50% from 30%. Which means that chance of seeing Alex has just increased by same amount.The tracks & graphics on my site have it heading South of Cuba, an interesting week ahead with perhaps a very rare storm for June in regards to development area

Edited June 13, 2010 by pyrotech

[Paranoid]

Most of the models i've seen look to be in agreement that 92L will reach tropical storm strength along the line, as to where it goes from there the models don't seem to have much agreement. GDFL has it falling apart as it reaches the eastern carribean, while the cmc has it moving up towards florida as a weak TS.

[pyrotech]

Most of the models i've seen look to be in agreement that 92L will reach tropical storm strength along the line, as to where it goes from there the models don't seem to have much agreement. GDFL has it falling apart as it reaches the eastern carribean, while the cmc has it moving up towards florida as a weak TS.

Yes different models will give different scenarios, Nogaps is one of the ones on floodwarn graphics (stormpulse).

Where did you get the other model predictions?

[Paranoid]

The link to the site is in the pm i sent you. As for the model runs, they were from CMC and HWRC (something like that at least)

[kold weather]

Just a very quick post from me...convection has reduced but importantly has become centered near the circulation, meaning the system is probably becoming tighter which is a classic evolution of such a deep tropics system. NHC raises the odds to 60% for something to develop, I'd personally say the odds of TD1 forming is now very high indeed.

Amazing to think our first system in June could be forming not in the Gulf or Caribbean...but at 40W!!!!

If that is not a warning shot as to how favourable the MDR zone really is this season, then nothing else is...

[pyrotech]

Just a very quick post from me...convection has reduced but importantly has become centered near the circulation, meaning the system is probably becoming tighter which is a classic evolution of such a deep tropics system. NHC raises the odds to 60% for something to develop, I'd personally say the odds of TD1 forming is now very high indeed.

Amazing to think our first system in June could be forming not in the Gulf or Caribbean...but at 40W!!!!

If that is not a warning shot as to how favourable the MDR zone really is this season, then nothing else is...

Yes our first high potential developing area, and what ever happens to this depression now we have started the season very well.

I think this will become a named storm, but this seems to have thrown the rule book out, days after i pointed out to people that it will not happen here in June. Well egg all over my face now!!

Like you said thou its very rare and really is something that far east.

[Cookie]

TCFA issued

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 39.0W TO 10.8N 44.1W WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF

NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 08.2N AND 38.5W IS CURRENTLY

MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

AT 14/0000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF

CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE

PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW WIND SHEER,

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS WARMER SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO

ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM

DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, IT IS

LATER ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENT LESS

CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED

BY 150600Z.//

[Somerset Squall]

thanks for the updates KOLD, btw where is SS?

I was at Download Festival, very drunk watching Billy Idol when you posted this, lol.

I have to say I was expecting this when I came back. As Kold mentions above however, conditions are more like August/September in that area so perhaps we shouldn't be all that surprised given the strength of the African Waves recently...

Don't have much more to add as it's all been said- I agree that long term things don't look good for 92L but it already looks close to being a depression.

[crimsone]

40% now... conditions, presumably, deteriorating.

[pyrotech]

40% now... conditions, presumably, deteriorating.

A bit of a rollercoaster ride. Still has potential to become something but likelyhood deminishing as wind shear is probably disrupting it, best chance was always if it made it into carribean sea. But seems that the Atlantic has the making of a fantastic season from this start. Some models showing another strong wave likely to become a depression later this coming weekend or early next week.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd agree about the 'next wave' forecast's Pyro! It almost drops off Africa as a major storm!!!

I wonder how many Verdes we'll have this year? I also wonder how many won't bother with the 'long haul' and opt for the 'quick trip' up the coast of Africa???

[summer blizzard]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME

LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY

CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS

FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48

HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15

MPH.

NHC report on the system still gives a 40% chance.

In regards to whether it will become a named storm, it looks to me as if the wave is trying to establish another centre in the north west of the system, near the deepest convection, if it does this succesfully, we have Alex.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

In regards to its track, it is currently been pulled northward by a front in the Atlantic, and there is a fair bit of shear and dry air above 15N, however there is plenty of moisture in the Carribean Sea and Gulf Of Mexico if the system makes it without recurving.

[Cookie]

I won't be giving up on this just yet.

I know its fast heading towards shear, but I still think it has a shot at becoming named.

[pyrotech]

I won't be giving up on this just yet.

I know its fast heading towards shear, but I still think it has a shot at becoming named.

A trop wave has just gone thru the Carribean sea close to mexico, a low with some convection has sheared off it heading North - North east towards Texas. Now that also looks interesting with moderate wind shear and very high sst.

May be Alex will be surprising us whilst we had our eye off the ball. It is the more likely place historically for a early storm to appear.

Only recently noticed it so will watch it and find out its potential which must be low as NHC not really interested in it at the mo.