Atlantic Invest Thread 2010

[Katherine]

From the NHC:

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

I don't know why, but the emboldened bit made me giggle....

[pyrotech]

Anybody got the track for this system, looks to me as though it may hit land limiting development??

92L is entering the peak of the shear now, so conditions will improve.

The tracks are shown on my site, turn them on and clouds on in the interactive part of the hurricane page.

Its shown to try to track westwards somewhere around the Jamaica - Cuba area where conditions are ripe for development.

This system has really defied logic, starting with its early development in the Mid atlantic and now the way it has defied the wind sheer.

[Cookie]

it really doesn't know when its beat!!

[kold weather]

Interesting to see how this has evolved in the last 12hrs. Having had a look at the shear tendancy it becomes clear that the jet streak has lifted up to the north a decent amount, esp within the area 92L is in. That means whilst there is still obviously decent shear aloft it is once again providing quite a broad region of upper divergence,

This therefore means we are quite probably in a similar location as to what we were in yesterday where we northward jog has it back in the brick wall. Chances of development are still very small but just keep an eye out in case the jet continues to lift out as it has done in the last 6hrs or so.

This once again proves how tough forecasting can be, in this instance a 100-150 mile shift has led to the system re-developing potent convection over the circulation. It should be noted that the microwave imagery still suggest there is some decent turning with the wave, meaning whilst there probably isn't a closed LLC, there probably is still some decent turning with the wave, which means if the convection can build over it for long enough, the LLC may have a chance at strengthening again.

The presistance of this system in June and so far east is pretty impressive, history tells us if they survive the high shear, if they find semi-decent conditions, they probably will develop...as I said before watch down the line for this system, if it can get into the W.Caribbean/E.Gulf or the Bahamas region its going to have a real shot IMO.

Edited June 17, 2010 by kold weather

[pyrotech]

Interesting to see how this has evolved in the last 12hrs. Having had a look at the shear tendancy it becomes clear that the jet streak has lifted up to the north a decent amount, esp within the area 92L is in. That means whilst there is still obviously decent shear aloft it is once again providing quite a broad region of upper divergence,

This therefore means we are quite probably in a similar location as to what we were in yesterday where we northward jog has it back in the brick wall. Chances of development are still very small but just keep an eye out in case the jet continues to lift out as it has done in the last 6hrs or so.

This once again proves how tough forecasting can be, in this instance a 100-150 mile shift has led to the system re-developing potent convection over the circulation. It should be noted that the microwave imagery still suggest there is some decent turning with the wave, meaning whilst there probably isn't a closed LLC, there probably is still some decent turning with the wave, which means if the convection can build over it for long enough, the LLC may have a chance at strengthening again.

The presistance of this system in June and so far east is pretty impressive, history tells us if they survive the high shear, if they find semi-decent conditions, they probably will develop...as I said before watch down the line for this system, if it can get into the W.Caribbean/E.Gulf or the Bahamas region its going to have a real shot IMO.

92L is back up to 20% this morning and looking very good considering the conditions it has been through.

Another area to its south looks interesting too, with less wind sheer and convergence perfect for rapid convection ( near 10 degrees North 40 degrees West), but as 92L has been so stubborn perhaps we should keep our eyes on it for a while yet.

Edited June 18, 2010 by pyrotech

[Iceberg]

92L is looking very good this morning,

Here's the latest statement from the NHC

"A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER

ANTILLES TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE

ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE

FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO. "

Shear is still evident but is lessening, convection is deep and heavy and does just cover the centre.

also attached are the paths, but to be honest beyond 3 days or so I'd be looking at the globals which main the ridge more probably pushing the system further west than GFDL is showing, personally I'd suggest a track somewhere over DR, up and just below Florida, before turning north and unfortunately into the Oil Well area.

I actual disagree with the NHC statement above in that although upper level winds are unfavourable they have been for the last 24-36 hrs, probably more so than now, equally there might not be a surface circulation(although I think there is, but not a closed one), there is certainly an upper to mid circulation.

My punt would be for NHC to change this to Orange later today and a TD tomorrow.

GFDL and HWRF both take it quickly to a named TS status.

[Iceberg]

Just seen this from the NHC TWO which kinds of contradicts the above NHC statement

"A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES

NORTH OF 13N. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR

A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N60W. SEVERAL DAYS AGO THIS SYSTEM HAD A

HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DUE TO

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF

DEVELOPMENT."

[kold weather]

Looking at the current direction and development levels I'd agree Iceberg the models will probably shift westwards somewhat given the system seems to have strengthened furthrer to the south then it was yesterday with the big convection probably helping to concentrate any attempt at developing a circulation.

Still clearly very sheared but it is doing a good job keeping convection going at the moment thanks to a still rather divergent pattern aloft. Best hope for this system is going to be further west in 4-5 days time in the NW Caribbean and E.Gulf region where the models are forecasting some reduction of shear but thats still a while away yet.

Iceberg, the Microwave imagery from last night certainly hinted very strongly at some sort of circulation still being present, but without any scattometer data recently its hard for me to know whether that is still present at lower levels.

Edited June 18, 2010 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Looks to be passing pretty close to Dominica.

Nothing out of the oridinary though weather wise

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78906.html#History

The path of the 92L has been also due west travelling between 15N and 16N for the last 48 hrs.

Re Circulation, it looks like we will have to wait until a few hrs after daylight to see some looping visible sat screens.

[Iceberg]

The latest HWRF is worth a quick look at.

Firstly it shows 92L working it's way up through the Caribbean as a TD/TS, before entering the GOM under Florida and heading towards the Oil Spill as quite a strengthening storm.

It also has two other invests/TD's/TS's, one at 40W and one at 60W.

Could be getting busy in the next week.

[Iceberg]

Looking at the visual loops in daylight, there is little to indicate any good circulation.

Still plenty of time further down the line though and it wouldn't surprise me if the diurnal effect again produces some very strong convection.

[summer blizzard]

92L is in bad shape at the moment, it has muliple centres/speradic convection.

Must say, when it does get going it will probably become quite large, theres a fair cloud base.

[summer blizzard]

1. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD

INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO

...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA AS THE WAVE

MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

Looks like a non event, only has about 72 hours left before landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

[Iceberg]

The wave from 92L seems to be re-organised further south now (probably a different Invest tbh).

NHC have upped the chances of a tropical storm in the next 48hrs upto 20% which is the highest for some time.

Shear is lower in that area, SST's higher.

Circulation is still the key problem though atm, based on the amount of convection it's possible that circulation might develop in the coming few days.

The new path of this is likely to be highly uncertain.

[Iceberg]

Forgot to add this !.

"A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL

WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."

[Iceberg]

I think it's worth putting this up, not as a likelyhood but as a possibility.

Essentially ECM shows the system staying pretty much where it is now moving very slowly NW over the next 5 days, then it picks up and moves northerly on a west side of a ridge, hitting the leaking OIL as a CAT 4 CAT 5 monster.

This has legs, but first thing first is some strong cyclonic turning, maybe we will get it soon, but conditions for development are now good.

[Iceberg]

The wave from 92L seems to be re-organised further south now (probably a different Invest tbh).

The wave has correctly been re-assigned as Invest 93L IMO.

Should get some new paths etc from it later on today.

sorry here are the paths as it heads towards the GOM, very ECM like.

Edited June 21, 2010 by Iceberg

[Katherine]

Essentially ECM shows the system staying pretty much where it is now moving very slowly NW over the next 5 days, then it picks up and moves northerly on a west side of a ridge, hitting the leaking OIL as a CAT 4 CAT 5 monster.

Errrrrmmmm................. ???????????????

Cat 4 / Cat 5 monster? Pardon the scepticism, but is there any evidence to support this?

[Iceberg]

Yep I was saying what the ECM model showed and posted an image of it, Also that it's not a likelyhood, but is a possibility.

[Iceberg]

Just got this from a site I completely forgot about for 93L, it shows the intensity forecast for the various models out to 5 days.(before landfall for 93L)

[Katherine]

93L is back to being orange on the NHC's front page. 30% risk of development now.

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING

WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A

SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF

ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE

COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS

OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO

RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Paranoid]

A lot of the models seem to have this system fall apart fairly soon, although a few bring it up to perhaps weak TS heading towards the GOM/Cuba. That said, i think one of the models brought it up to hurricane strength in the GOM judging by the isobars, before moving south and weakening before it hits mexico. Bit of an unusual path and i haven't seen this on any of the other models so i'm skeptical.

Also @Iceberg: Do you have a link to the ECM model?

[Rob]

I think if this pulls through and makes it to the Gulf of Mexico it could make Hurricane Status

[pyrotech]

A lot of the models seem to have this system fall apart fairly soon, although a few bring it up to perhaps weak TS heading towards the GOM/Cuba. That said, i think one of the models brought it up to hurricane strength in the GOM judging by the isobars, before moving south and weakening before it hits mexico. Bit of an unusual path and i haven't seen this on any of the other models so i'm skeptical.

Also @Iceberg: Do you have a link to the ECM model?

links are on the floodwarn hurricane pages for you, ECM model you are looking for is on the hurricane maps or hurricane tracking pages

[Paranoid]

Taa.