Tropical Cyclone Hubert

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SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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WARNING POSITION:

100000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 50.1E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 50.1E

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

101200Z --- 20.3S 49.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:

110000Z --- 20.1S 49.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:

111200Z --- 19.7S 48.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

120000Z --- 19.6S 47.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

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REMARKS:

100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 50.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT

02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDS

WRAPPING TIGHTER AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT

POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS

BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18S IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AREA JUST

TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A TROUGH.

BOTH FEATURES ARE ENHANCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENCED ON

ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY

SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND

SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO

MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 THEN DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC

MODEL IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF GFS AND GFDN. THESE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD

AND NORTHEASTWARD, RESPECTIVELY. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS

REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 091400Z MAR 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

(WTXS21 PGTW 091400 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 8

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//

[Somerset Squall]

18S has become Tropical Cyclone Hubert, with intensity having risen to 55kts. Hubert is rapidly approaching the east coast of Madagascar as it runs along the northern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the south. Deep convection is persisting over the well defined LLC and some limited banding features continue to show on satellite imagery. Hubert will make landfall by morning where swift dissipation will occur over Southern Madagascar as the mountainous terrain takes it's toll on the small storm. Nevertheless, flooding rains are possible.

Had this system has more time over water then it could have become quite intense, as Hubert's small size has allowed a 20kt intensity gain in less than 12 hours which is some pretty quick strengthening.

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thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Latest image of Hubert:

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closing in on land

[Somerset Squall]

Hubert has degenerated into a remnant low inland. Convection is decreasing, but the LLC remains well defined so far. There is a small chance of re-generation in the Mozambique Channel if the LLC survives intact.

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