Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Tropical Cyclone Hubert


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//

    RMKS/

    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001

    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

    WARNING POSITION:

    100000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 50.1E

    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 50.1E

    ---

    FORECASTS:

    12 HRS, VALID AT:

    101200Z --- 20.3S 49.6E

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

    24 HRS, VALID AT:

    110000Z --- 20.1S 49.0E

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

    36 HRS, VALID AT:

    111200Z --- 19.7S 48.3E

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

    48 HRS, VALID AT:

    120000Z --- 19.6S 47.0E

    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

    REMARKS:

    100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 50.0E.

    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM

    EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT

    02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

    SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDS

    WRAPPING TIGHTER AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT

    POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS

    BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL

    ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 18S IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AREA JUST

    TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A TROUGH.

    BOTH FEATURES ARE ENHANCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENCED ON

    ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY

    SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND

    SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL

    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO

    MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 THEN DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT

    TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC

    MODEL IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE

    EXCEPTION OF GFS AND GFDN. THESE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD

    AND NORTHEASTWARD, RESPECTIVELY. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS

    REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 091400Z MAR 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

    (WTXS21 PGTW 091400 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 8

    FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 6
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    18S has become Tropical Cyclone Hubert, with intensity having risen to 55kts. Hubert is rapidly approaching the east coast of Madagascar as it runs along the northern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the south. Deep convection is persisting over the well defined LLC and some limited banding features continue to show on satellite imagery. Hubert will make landfall by morning where swift dissipation will occur over Southern Madagascar as the mountainous terrain takes it's toll on the small storm. Nevertheless, flooding rains are possible.

    Had this system has more time over water then it could have become quite intense, as Hubert's small size has allowed a 20kt intensity gain in less than 12 hours which is some pretty quick strengthening.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Latest image of Hubert:

    post-1820-12682549836955_thumb.jpg

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Hubert has degenerated into a remnant low inland. Convection is decreasing, but the LLC remains well defined so far. There is a small chance of re-generation in the Mozambique Channel if the LLC survives intact.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...