Model Output Discussion

[Coast]

Please continue your discussions about the current model output here.

[mushymanrob]

the 06z strongly suggests some very pleasant weather next week with high pressure over the near continent and a warm southwesterly, that should bring on some spring growth!

fi suggests high pressure over northern areas which would induce some rather dull, raw, easterlies especially for southern uk. however, until this is manifest within a reliable timeframe...im not worried by it! and tbh the chances of any more significant wintry weather is fast diminishing.

Edited March 18, 2010 by mushymanrob

[snowmadchrisuk]

the 06z strongly suggests some very pleasant weather next week with high pressure over the near continent and a warm southwesterly, that should bring on some spring growth!

fi suggests high pressure over northern areas which would induce some rather dull, raw, easterlies especially for southern uk. however, until this is manifest within a reliable timeframe...im not worried by it! and tbh the chances of any more significant wintry weather is fast diminishing.

Some Spring warmth is looking more and more likely in my opinion , I think CC is going to have to come round to the fact that he is going to have to wait until next year for any more serious winter weather (No offence mate but you haven't had much look with your predictions since mid Feb.) Them systems pushing up from the South over the weekend may really help to push some warmer air Northwards. Another interesting bit of news today is that there trying to push through today keeping this years British Summer Time on through next winter and then next summer putting the clocks forwards another hour meaning double summer time . This will mean 11pm Sunsets but it will also mean in the winter some very long winter Nights with daylight not coming through until gone 10am in some places.

[cooling climate]

Some Spring warmth is looking more and more likely in my opinion , I think CC is going to have to come round to the fact that he is going to have to wait until next year for any more serious winter weather (No offence mate but you haven't had much look with your predictions since mid Feb.) Them systems pushing up from the South over the weekend may really help to push some warmer air Northwards. Another interesting bit of news today is that there trying to push through today keeping this years British Summer Time on through next winter and then next summer putting the clocks forwards another hour meaning double summer time . This will mean 11pm Sunsets but it will also mean in the winter some very long winter Nights with daylight not coming through until gone 10am in some places.

I did not know that I had made any predictions other than seeing an upcoming colder spell looming.

Admittedly it is not within the reliable time frame yet but but don't put away your woolly hats and

jumpers just yet. Now where did I put that snow shovel.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The south-westerly type can bring very different kinds of weather depending on the airmass history and the amount of frontal activity. For instance, it will always be drier and sunnier towards the SE rather than the NW. The tropical maritime type will give dull wet weather in the NW and sunshine in the SE (the extent of the sunshine depending on how close by the high pressure is), while the "returning polar maritime" type usually heralds sunny mornings followed by bands of sharp showers moving SW-NE during the afternoon. The "west based negative NAO" scenario with low pressure stalling to our west or north-west and blocking to the east and west of it tends to promote the "sunshine and showers" scenario whereas a mobile Atlantic will mean more fronts, cloud and moderate persistent rain.

I am not sure what to make of the GFS 06Z regarding the above- probably a mix of all of those scenarios suggests itself, but specifics will have to be pinned down nearer the time.

But with the UKMO hinting at cold northerlies arising out of the T+144 chart, and ECM going for what looks like a rather dull easterly type, and both of those having a better verification rate at T+144 than GFS, there is no guarantee that any south-westerly type will last through to the end of March.

[The PIT]

12 oz GFS going for warm then very mild outlook until you get to deep FI. Hopefully it won't be like today's weather very hazy weak sun then dull with the odd outbreak of light rain.

[Weather-history]

12 oz GFS going for warm then very mild outlook until you get to deep FI. Hopefully it won't be like today's weather very hazy weak sun then dull with the odd outbreak of light rain.

Looked at the 2m for Manchester and they don't look that impressive, to be honest. Certainly not the maxima.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

Edited March 18, 2010 by Mr_Data

[yamkin]

ECM 12Z is still going for a cooler outlook around the 216h & 240h

[phil nw.]

Looked at the 2m for Manchester and they don't look that impressive, to be honest. Certainly not the maxima.

http://www.wzkarten3...chester_ens.png

Yes a cooler Atlantic regime is promised during the next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

After the "good" South Westerly spell ,where we have had some lovely mild sunshine here, it looks like the "bad" side of the pattern shows it`s hand now.

Less mild conditions modelled on 12z output with dampness and cloud for many and temps.struggling only to around average values and cooler further North.

[MR EXTREMES]

nothing extreme in terms of warmth but unsettled the theme.

as for fi it was two days ago the cold look like coming back its being pushed backed futher and futher my opion ignore it.

cc the feb and march cold spells did not really happen for you.

winter is well and truely over and this time next week the likely hood of seeing some even warmer weather is a strong possibility.

whether it be fi or the shorter term looking forward to spring and summer had excellent winter this year.

time to forget the cold fi and strat warming and neg nao,s cc tshirts at the ready.

[Nick F]

The GFS and ECM seemed to have moved away from the more amplified flow upstream into the medium range, to a more 'flatter' zonal flow, and this manifests itself in a move away from the medium range easterlies and northeasterlies of yesterday's output to a flow from the west or southwest. Some returning polar maritime air, particularly on ECM, may mean that March may not end on a particularly mild note, but we have seen quite a bit of variation in recent runs. But IMO low pressure looks likely to be not that far away from the UK for the rest of the month, so unsettled.

[cooling climate]

nothing extreme in terms of warmth but unsettled the theme.

as for fi it was two days ago the cold look like coming back its being pushed backed futher and futher my opion ignore it.

cc the feb and march cold spells did not really happen for you.

winter is well and truely over and this time next week the likely hood of seeing some even warmer weather is a strong possibility.

whether it be fi or the shorter term looking forward to spring and summer had excellent winter this year.

time to forget the cold fi and strat warming and neg nao,s cc tshirts at the ready.

Hey arn't you the funny one, next proper rainy day and it will be summer cancel yeah.

[Eugene]

Don't mind him CC, he was like that throughout the winter how the cold never came off but we managed a very cold winter in stats.

Nothing warm or settled for the warmies either, looks unsettled with temps average to slightly above average after saturday, not sure why hes so smug about that, pretty funny last night watching Europa League in London on TV and lots of people still out in scarfs and gloves, winter is still here according to lots of football fans

[frostyjoe]

Some Spring warmth is looking more and more likely in my opinion , I think CC is going to have to come round to the fact that he is going to have to wait until next year for any more serious winter weather (No offence mate but you haven't had much look with your predictions since mid Feb.) Them systems pushing up from the South over the weekend may really help to push some warmer air Northwards. Another interesting bit of news today is that there trying to push through today keeping this years British Summer Time on through next winter and then next summer putting the clocks forwards another hour meaning double summer time . This will mean 11pm Sunsets but it will also mean in the winter some very long winter Nights with daylight not coming through until gone 10am in some places.

that would mean I'd be 2hours ahead of the time I'm supposed to be !!!

[Frosty.]

Very unsettled 00z output as far as the eye can see and beyond, at least it should be mildish or mild most of the time with temps in the range of 10-14 celsius and occasionally higher in the southeast but the ecm in +200 hours lala land hints at something colder. The pattern we are now in would have been the usual winter pattern with coldies tearing their hair out in frustration looking for something cold in the depths of FI but it's probably time to forget cold and frost and snow until november as most of the regular posters have already gone into hibernation.

Edited March 19, 2010 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

...... the interesting mix continues this morning, typical, normal, spring weather which will be most welcome!

no real cold in evidence, no real warmth either in this 'cuspal' time of the year... pretty much too late now for a proper cold spell, pretty much too early for a proper warm spell (yes there are exceptions). oh what a difference a week or two makes either way.

[snowfish]

Very unsettled 00z output as far as the eye can see and beyond, at least it should be mildish or mild most of the time with temps in the range of 10-14 celsius and occasionally higher in the southeast but the ecm in +200 hours lala land hints at something colder. The pattern we are now in would have been the usual winter pattern with coldies tearing their hair out in frustration looking for something cold in the depths of FI but it's probably time to forget cold and frost and snow until november as most of the regular posters have already gone into hibernation.

True Frosty, but there are strong signals from both ecm AND GFS for the same time frame-March nearly always goes out with a cold blast of some sort of other lol!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Some Spring warmth is looking more and more likely in my opinion , I think CC is going to have to come round to the fact that he is going to have to wait until next year for any more serious winter weather (No offence mate but you haven't had much look with your predictions since mid Feb.) Them systems pushing up from the South over the weekend may really help to push some warmer air Northwards. Another interesting bit of news today is that there trying to push through today keeping this years British Summer Time on through next winter and then next summer putting the clocks forwards another hour meaning double summer time . This will mean 11pm Sunsets but it will also mean in the winter some very long winter Nights with daylight not coming through until gone 10am in some places.

not heard that, would be horrid 11pm sunsets, miles too hot in my N facing room, even worse for sleeping if its later

[Frosty.]

True Frosty, but there are strong signals from both ecm AND GFS for the same time frame-March nearly always goes out with a cold blast of some sort of other lol!

We can hope snowfish but I must say the model output has been as dull as dirty dish water since the cold winter pattern finally lost it's iron grip, I can't see any realistic return to cold & wintry weather based on the current output but maybe a short sharp reminder of winter will occur sometime in april.

[The PIT]

GFS midnight run mild or very mild all the way while the ECM still favours a colder interlude. At the moment though GFS seems to be leading the way with the mild scenario. Looks like a reverse from winter where cold got upgrade and mild downgraded and it's now flipped back to the normal pattern we're used too.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A pretty dull wet day tomorrow by the looks of it:

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100319/00/36/ukprec.png

The first significant rain of the entire month for many, I reckon. Certainly here in Norwich there's been nothing more than the odd spot of rain here and there so far, probably no more than a few millimetres. However there is also a suggestion of convective precipitation over the southern half of England so maybe some excitement for convective storm lovers in the afternoon behind the main frontal system.

After a dry bright day (except the far west) on Sunday, there could be some fairly potent shower activity following behind a frontal system on Monday judging by the storm risk chart (also WZ picks out a lot of convective precipitation):

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100319/00/90/ukstormrisk.png

Beyond Monday outlooks diverge- GFS indicates generally dry, bright, mild weather away from N & W Scotland, Ireland and parts of NW England, though not as warm as we've seen over the last few days. ECM brings in a low which is progged to give 2-3 days of the sort of "sunshine and showers" returning polar maritime scenario from the SW that I described earlier.

Some will find the upcoming spell of unremarkable but consistent warmth dull, but to be fair to Mushymanrob, there genuinely is a mix of different weather types on offer, and away from limited areas of northern and western Britain sunshine amounts look like being quite high especially considering the emphasis on south-westerlies.

[mushymanrob]

Some will find the upcoming spell of unremarkable but consistent warmth dull, but to be fair to Mushymanrob, there genuinely is a mix of different weather types on offer, and away from limited areas of northern and western Britain sunshine amounts look like being quite high especially considering the emphasis on south-westerlies.

i see nothing wrong with 'normal', ok it hasnt the appeal of extreme heat/cold but 'normal' is normal, and its part of our rich diversity of weather we get which is what i like. imho theres alot to enjoy about 'normal'. i love early warmth like this, its probably my favourite weather type, the fresh smells, birdsong, light ...

[Weather-history]

Looked at the 2m for Manchester and they don't look that impressive, to be honest. Certainly not the maxima.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

Again nothing special here. Nothing too cold although it dips just in time for Easter and nothing especially warm. Infact not one ensemble gets to the 15C mark, which is what I would call very mild for March.

Edited March 19, 2010 by Mr_Data

[MR EXTREMES]

Hey arn't you the funny one, next proper rainy day and it will be summer cancel yeah.

hold up dont bite theres not much cold in the outlook there is also not much real warmth in the outlook so average unsettled no extreme northern blocking causing us to have a march to remember.

id also like to say it also dont give everybody the right to abuse me,

just because i dont always agree with deep freezes or heatwaves its spring for god sake a season that can bring alsorts including 70f.

but right now alantic is back and i really think it will be around for sometime yet judging by the carts today.

[Lettucing Gutted]

The south-westerly type can bring very different kinds of weather depending on the airmass history and the amount of frontal activity. For instance, it will always be drier and sunnier towards the SE rather than the NW. The tropical maritime type will give dull wet weather in the NW and sunshine in the SE (the extent of the sunshine depending on how close by the high pressure is), while the "returning polar maritime" type usually heralds sunny mornings followed by bands of sharp showers moving SW-NE during the afternoon. The "west based negative NAO" scenario with low pressure stalling to our west or north-west and blocking to the east and west of it tends to promote the "sunshine and showers" scenario whereas a mobile Atlantic will mean more fronts, cloud and moderate persistent rain.

In terms of temperature does the "Returning Maritime Polar" Southwesterly type give cool weather especially by night whereas the "Mobile Atlantic" Southwesterly type gives very mild/warm weather especially by night? Interestingly June 2003 had a Negative North Atlantic and Southwesterly pattern and yet was very warm due to deep long draws of Maritime Tropical air.