Model Output Discussion

[Frosty.]

Good to see we are still on track for a prolonged anticyclonic spell commencing from around or just after midweek with the high building from the sw and heading ne towards scandi but there will be a big price to pay as winds switch into a cloudier and cooler easterly or ne'ly and nw scotland might end up best placed, it's almost as if the weather has a memory as the set up shown is typical of early/mid april. Looking beyond the high pressure the models hint at a cold n'ly plunge around mid month but a good week or more of fine weather before that possibility.

[frostyjoe]

if we are going to get high pressure i would like it to be warm and sunny say 20c not this 11c rainy rubbish...boring! If this is the case the high pressure can wait and we can continue with the cold weather or cool.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS outputs show the high pressure further south so I think low cloud would affect a more limited area of the country, though the temperature outputs still imply that much of the south-eastern third of England would be persistently cloudy. ECM's outputs would be cloudy for a larger area of the country. The setup doesn't evolve exactly as I envisaged in my LRF- I had LP sinking SE allowing cool NE'lys in and high pressure to the NW- whereas instead the high heads north and settles to the NW allowing the north-easterlies in.

Regarding "fine" weather, to some people that means dry sunny weather while to others it just means no rain, and I think we're seeing that with the varied mix of views that are coming out about the possible dry cool cloudy spell ahead. Whenever I see predictions of fine/settled weather I always take a close look at the detail as I am strongly in the former category.

[Ben_Cambs]

if we are going to get high pressure i would like it to be warm and sunny say 20c not this 11c rainy rubbish...boring! If this is the case the high pressure can wait and we can continue with the cold weather or cool.

Seems very unlikely that we will see 20C from the current synoptics, its hard to reach that without a southerly source of warm air, which we wont see. I agree with Frosty, western areas are best placed from the current synoptics, I think temperatures will widely be between 13-17C, with some cloud in Eastern areas. It will feel very pleasant in the sun though and I think NW Scotland and NI will do best out of the upcoming week.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think many are of the opinion, me included, that sunshine and thundery downpours is more exciting than low cloud off the North Sea or a lengthy dry spell that doesn't offer anything particularly interesting, because even at this time of year, it will still be rather cool, similar to April 2002.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn1681.html

Perhaps if there was a more southeasterly element to the high people may switch on a bit but the draw of wind is quite far to the east and veers to a northerly source later on in the run. It's still well into FI. If the high could position itself more to the east we could something more like this but we do need the input of the Atlantic to the west which seems to want to go into a bit of a slumber:

http://www.wetterzen...00120091030.gif

I'm not bothered at all what others preferences are - each to their own.

This time of year typically produces a variety of conditions and there is usually something for most people. The models indicate such another switch upcoming, which this time suits more what I would appreciate. Better nights sleep instead of wind, thunder and rain and a chance to get into the garden to do some pottering without getting soaked. The suggestion of cool and average temps in terms of the modelled pattern is also fine because I am not a fan of heat. Pleasant warmth (in late Spring & summer) is perfectly adequate.

Edited April 3, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[frostyjoe]

Seems very unlikely that we will see 20C from the current synoptics, its hard to reach that without a southerly source of warm air, which we wont see. I agree with Frosty, western areas are best placed from the current synoptics, I think temperatures will widely be between 13-17C, with some cloud in Eastern areas. It will feel very pleasant in the sun though and I think NW Scotland and NI will do best out of the upcoming week.

NOOO i want the snow to last to may lol... well were to get 6-7c most of the week well.

Edited April 3, 2010 by frostyjoe

[johnholmes]

_{Always a pleasure to read your update NSSC, I know that when you post something upbeat, it means there is no SW muck on the way. For the western seaboard the possible outcome is quite good, possibility of some frosty nights if skies are clear enough I guess....?}

I like reading your input but PLEASE may those of us of advancing years and declining eyesight be given a font that is somewhat larger please?

many thanks

[La Bise]

Sorry John, I have no idea why it came out so small!

[johnholmes]

okay tks- computers are wonderful things-sometimes!

[andy_leics22]

Looks like i well be warming up soon, I hope that high pressure does sit over us soon because it has felt far from spring-like so far!

[Snowyowl9]

Weather highlights next week,looks cold enough for a few more wintry showers on easter day.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn242.png

Followed by a very wet cool midweek.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Then a much needed dryer easterly and rather cool.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Edited April 3, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[phil nw.]

Easter Sunday into Monday shows a brief drier period for most as a transient ridge moves across before the next Low approaches,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn301.png

Although Monday is now looking less promising especially the further North and West as the front moves in.

Only the South East likely to hang on to any bright and dry weather during the day as cloud and some rain affects many areas later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn484.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm481.gif

It looks as if this system wavers about for the midweek period and weakens as pressure builds across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

So still some rain about but becoming more patchy and some areas could well be dry and warmer Weds.and Thurs,especially in the South East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

However it looks as if the main High cell will move towards Scandinavia by the end of the week which will pull in cooler North Easterly flow off the North

Sea .

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

This looks likely to create low cloud and drizzle for Central and Eastern districts and single figure temps. again, although this time Western areas would be warmer and brighter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1444.png

A chance that Brighter and warmer conditions arrive beyond this as the flow turns more South East as modelled much further out.

[Derp Patrol]

Nice summary, thanks

Just now, Rob McElwee thinks that we will get 19C again this Tuesday after we last got it a few weeks ago, so 20C maybe not too far away?

[Optimus Prime]

That easterly certainly would be very cloudy with drizzle and cold but better in the west.

[conor123]

Every run seems to shift Monday and Tuesdays weather front nearer to here then the grey weather looks set to stay.

So for here, no improvements at all, the suns not been out properly since the beginning of March now!

[SP1986]

It looks like a cold and distinctly below average first half to April, I cant foresee any improvement for a long time either, with potential high pressure being pushed away.

Like a few people I want a period of settled weather personally, but this looks a long long way away at the moment.

I wonder how long this period of below average temperatures will continue? Cant see any evidence to suggest it will warm up for any time soon.

[Eugene]

Yes i agree with the above two posters, hardly looking an improvement at all only tuesday looks reasonably mild for April(average max for April is 12C), nice and mild for later this week if it was winter

Cool and miserable for this time of year though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn13817.png

Edited April 4, 2010 by Eugene

[phil nw.]

Yes i agree with the above two posters, hardly looking an improvement at all only tuesday looks reasonably mild for April(average max for April is 12C), nice and mild for later this week if it was winter

Cool and miserable for this time of year though.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn11417.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn13817.png

Yes GFS has the High further North at T144hrs.compared to ECM and UKMO.

GFS http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

ECM http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

UK http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

showing a much brisker Easterly and lower uppers.

At least a drier pattern looks likely but Eastern and Central areas likely to be prone to North Sea cloud and drizzle,at least for a while.

Wind turning more South East on both models in FI which would spread warmer conditions to many later.

Edited April 4, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[mushymanrob]

, but have to disagree with you about anywhere getting a frostless spring. Its convenient to not count the first frosty week, but it was in the meteorological spring so it still counts!

i did qualify it by saying 'after the winter cold went', ie in early march, and 'here' meaning my locale. i know northern areas have had a frost but theres no sign that since the winter went and spring weather came (early march)that i will have another frost.

not looking too bad this morning, the ecm has the high much closer/over us later in the week. so the airflow from the eastern quadrant will be slacker and cloud more likely to break. the gfs 00z into fi has a more a southeastern slant to the airflow which will also reduce cloud amounts, olus an eventual chance of a real warm up

[Milhouse]

i did qualify it by saying 'after the winter cold went', ie in early march, and 'here' meaning my locale. i know northern areas have had a frost but theres no sign that since the winter went and spring weather came (early march)that i will have another frost.

not looking too bad this morning, the ecm has the high much closer/over us later in the week. so the airflow from the eastern quadrant will be slacker and cloud more likely to break. the gfs 00z into fi has a more a southeastern slant to the airflow which will also reduce cloud amounts, olus an eventual chance of a real warm up

Its certainly been far from cold and misearable here. Seeing it bucketing down at the Burnley/Man City match whilst it stayed dry and mostly sunny here really does highlight theres been a lot of regional variation in the weather of late. So far i would class it as a decent spring with plenty of dry weather and reasonable temperatures with a couple of very mild days.

I see no real indication across the models that its going to turn colder. The GFS is really taking the easterly to the extreme and the much warmer UKMO 144h is a just as likely outcome. If you want real cold to start April look at 1986. Several days with maxes of just 5 and 6.

Edited April 4, 2010 by Milhouse

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

An improved picture from today onwards in terms of the pattern, barring the low to the north west which will give more poor wet and windy weather for some in the next day or so.

Great to see high pressure returning. Still some differences between the main models in terms of exact position and shape, but the common demoninator is that a much welcomed dry up should occur.

I would happily take any of the model suggestions in terms of the high - some sort of easterly seems assured for a while and imo that is the main thing

The longer term suggestions do have a hint of the high moving too far west once again towards western Greenland and Canada - which could mean a return to the UK low situation eventually yet again. The models are probably being over progressive with the pattern and hopefully that won't happen - but in any case it is too far away atm to consider too much anyway.

Edited April 4, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[kold weather]

I'd much rather have the ECM then the GFS, the GFS looks cloudy and probably fairly cool, whilst the ECM would be probably fairly clear and I'd imagine temps getting towards the mid teens, far more pleasent then the GFS and its easterly I'm sure, though obviosly any ENE flow will still be fairly cool.

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes I would prefer ECM too. The 0z ECM London ensembles average showed temperatures reaching 13-15C, which would feel nice out in the sun. GFS however has a more easterly influence, and would lead to grey,dull and cool weather for at least the Eastern half of the country, with some days not getting into double figures, as the HP is centred over Iceland/East Greenland for a while, then that retrogresses westwards opening up Atlantic attacks or even a possible Northerly, ECM has the HP centred over the UK.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Re. Stephen's wish for a settled spell, I think we are heading for a settled spell- but there's a good chance it will be a cool cloudy one for many (though I'm guessing that "settled" probably had warm sunshine in mind, which has been strongly lacking across most parts of the country so far this year, with any warmth tending to be associated with dull wet conditions).

At the moment it's a case of the Euros vs the GFS. I must say I like the look of the ECM- I think most places would see some warm sunshine out of that scenario (probably not 20C, but mid to high teens would be plausible) and then at the end of the run hints of a switch-around as low pressure transfers to Scandinavia setting up a northerly (i.e. the "sunshine and 18C to sunshine and snow showers a few days later" type). UKMO looks like it has the high far south enough to keep it sunny and quite warm. But GFS would bring a good deal of cloud and possibly even the odd bit of drizzle across eastern England.

I'm not sure which model to back at this stage as there is so much chopping and changing. Normally I would back ECM/UKMO over the GFS but none of the models have been doing well recently.

[phil nw.]

Re. Stephen's wish for a settled spell, I think we are heading for a settled spell- but there's a good chance it will be a cool cloudy one for many (though I'm guessing that "settled" probably had warm sunshine in mind, which has been strongly lacking across most parts of the country so far this year, with any warmth tending to be associated with dull wet conditions).

At the moment it's a case of the Euros vs the GFS. I must say I like the look of the ECM- I think most places would see some warm sunshine out of that scenario (probably not 20C, but mid to high teens would be plausible) and then at the end of the run hints of a switch-around as low pressure transfers to Scandinavia setting up a northerly (i.e. the "sunshine and 18C to sunshine and snow showers a few days later" type). UKMO looks like it has the high far south enough to keep it sunny and quite warm. But GFS would bring a good deal of cloud and possibly even the odd bit of drizzle across eastern England.

I'm not sure which model to back at this stage as there is so much chopping and changing. Normally I would back ECM/UKMO over the GFS but none of the models have been doing well recently.

Yes i certainly hope ECM verifies around day6.

Actually the Model Comparison table shows some performance improvement lately with the ECM slightly ahead at the moment.

I can`t help feeling though that for a day or 2 at least Eastern and Central areas will receive some cloud and coolness off the North Sea,it`s a typical

pattern for this time of year.